Transcript Slide 1

New Jersey
Industry and Occupational
Employment Projections
2006-2016
Employment Change (000s)
-50
-100
-150
1999-2000
1989-1990
1979-1980
1969-1970
1959-1960
1949-1950
1939-1940
Annual Employment Change in
New Jersey 1939-2008
200
150
100
50
0
Employment growth in New Jersey
is projected to lag the nation
Projected growth ‘06 – ‘16
15.0
10.0
11.0
6.2
5.0
0.0
Total Nonfarm
-5.0
-10.0
-15.0
NJ
US
Goods Producing industries will continue
to decline in both state and nation
Projected growth ‘06 – ‘16
15.0
10.0
11.0
6.2
5.0
Goods Producing
0.0
Total Nonfarm
-5.0
-10.0
-3.3
-10.1
-15.0
NJ
US
All growth projected to occur in
Service Providing industries
13.8
Projected growth ‘06 – ‘16
15.0
10.0
11.0
8.5
6.2
5.0
Goods Producing
0.0
Total Nonfarm
Service Providing
-5.0
-10.0
-3.3
-10.1
-15.0
NJ
US
US
NJ
07-08
06-07
05-06
04-05
03-04
02-03
01-02
00-01
99-00
98-99
97-98
96-97
95-96
94-95
93-94
92-93
91-92
90-91
Annual employment growth among
Private sector
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
-4.0
-5.0
Projected employment change in
New Jersey
400,000
Employment growth ‘06 – ‘16
304,700
300,000
254,100
200,000
100,000
Goods Producing
0
Total Nonfarm
-100,000
Service Providing
-50,600
Projected employment change in
United States
Employment growth ‘06 – ‘16 (000s)
20,000
15,000
15,782
15,050
10,000
5,000
Goods Producing
0
Total Nonfarm
-5,000
-732
Service Providing
-0.5
-2.5
Tr
Tr
ad
an
e
sp
or
ta
tio
n
U
til
Pr
iti
Fi
es
of
In
na
es
f
n
or
ce
sio
m
an
na
at
io
d
la
n
Re
nd
a
Bu
lE
st
sin
at
e
Ed
e
ss
uc
Se
at
rv
io
ic
Le
n
es
an
isu
d
re
H
an
ea
lth
d
H
os
pi
ta
O
lit
th
Pu
y
er
bl
S
ic
er
vi
Ad
ce
m
s
in
ist
ra
tio
n
-2.0
ru
ct
M
io
an
n
uf
ac
tu
rin
g
-1.5
ns
t
-1.0
Co
Projected growth in NJ and US
by industry
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
NJ
US
Annual Growth Rate
-2.0
-4.0
-6.0
-8.0
-10.0
07-08
06-07
05-06
04-05
03-04
02-03
01-02
00-01
99-00
98-99
97-98
96-97
95-96
94-95
93-94
92-93
91-92
90-91
Goods Producing
Industries
2.0
0.0
Growth in Construction not enough to
offset losses in Manufacturing
20,000
11,800
0
-20,000
-40,000
-60,000
-50,600
-62,500
-80,000
Goods Producing
Manufacturing
Construction
Construction
Heavy and Civil Engineering
07-08
06-07
05-06
04-05
30-04
02-03
01-02
00-01
99-00
98-99
97-98
96-97
95-96
94-95
93-94
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-4.0
-6.0
-8.0
-10.0
92-93
Annual Percent Change
Construction industry had been a steady source
of jobs for last 15 years…until the downturn
Construction of Buildings
Specialty Trade Contractors
Selected industries make up the bulk of
the decline, but losses are widespread
Projected Employment Change ‘06 – ‘16
0
-6,700
-10,000
-6,100
Printing and Related
Support Mfg
-20,000
-5,200
-5,100
-5,000
Fabricated Metal Mfg
-30,000
Paper Mfg
-40,000
-50,000
Computer and
Electronic Product Mfg
-60,000
Chemical Mfg
-62,500
-70,000
Manufacturing
Annual Growth Rate
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
07-08
06-07
05-06
04-05
03-04
02-03
01-02
00-01
99-00
98-99
97-98
96-97
95-96
94-95
93-94
92-93
91-92
90-91
Service Providing
Industries
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
2006 employment and projected growth
by industry super-sector
Trade, Transportation &
Warehousing
Education and Health
Professional and
Business
Public Administraion
Leisure and Hospitality
Financial Activities
Other Services
Information and Utilities
are projected to decline
by a combined 10,000
jobs, or roughly 9%
0
200,000
400,000
2006 Employment
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
Projected Growth
More than 90% of growth is projected
to occur within these three super-sectors
140,000
120,000
114,600
100,000
80,000
78,200
73,700
60,000
38,200
40,000
20,000
0
Education and Professional and
Health Services Business Services
Leisure and
Hospitality
Other Service
Supersectors
Healthcare and Education has been only
stable and reliable source of new jobs
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-4.0
Health and Education
Leisure and Hospitality
07-08
06-07
05-06
04-05
03-04
02-03
01-02
00-01
99-00
98-99
97-98
96-97
95-96
94-95
93-94
92-93
91-92
90-91
-6.0
Professional and Business Services
Healthcare will continue to produce the
bulk of NJ’s employment growth
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
Actual Employment
Projected Employment
20
16
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
200,000
High-paying occupations are prominent
in these industries
Projected Employment Growth ‘06 – ‘16
100,000
80,000
Architectural,
Engineering and
Related Services
78,200
Management of
Companies and
Enterprises
60,000
40,000
6,000
7,100
9,500
20,000
16,800
0
Professional and
Business Services
Management,
Scientific and
Technical Consulting
Computer Systems
Design
Occupational Highlights
 6.0%
Employment
Growth, 2006-2016
 132,100 Average
Annual Job Openings
 Roughly 7 of every
10 of these openings
due to Replacement
demand
Only Professional, Service and Management, Business
and Financial occupations will grow faster than average
1,000,000
15.0
10.0
NJ avg.=6.0%
400,000
5.0
200,000
-800,000
-1,000,000
Install., Main.,
Repair
Construction
Production
Sales
Trans./Mat.
Moving
-600,000
Mgmt., Bus.,
Fin.
-400,000
Office/Admin.
-200,000
0.0
Service
0
Professional
2006 Employment
600,000
-5.0
-10.0
-15.0
Major Occupational Group
Projected Growth, 2006-2016
800,000
Professional and Service occupations
will account for most new jobs by 2016
Professional
111,600
Service
110,800
33,000
Mgmt., Bus., Fin.
Sales
Office/Admin.
Construction
Install., Main., Repair
-4,200
-28,600
-60,000
16,200
10,100
9,100
6,500
Trans./Material Moving
Production
-20,000
20,000
60,000
Employment Growth 2006 - 2016
100,000
140,000
Most job opportunities are still result of
replacement need rather than growth
31,520
Service
30,140
Professional
20,890
Office/Admin.
Sales
16,320
Mgmt., Bus., Fin.
12,540
7,460
Trans./Material Moving
4,600
Production
4,000
Construction
Install., Main., Repair
3,450
0
5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000
New Jobs
Replacements
Jobs with higher education and training
requirements will grow faster than average
15.0
First Professional Degree
Total High
Requirements
11.1
16.2
Doctoral Degree
15.3
Master's Degree
Bachelor's or Higher + Work Exp.
4.4
11.3
Bachelor's Degree
Total
Moderate
Requirements
5.2
13.3
Associate's Degree
10.5
Postsecondary Vocational Training
Work Exp. In related occ.
Long-term OTJ Training
Total Low
Requirements
3.8
Moderate-term OTJ Training
Short-term OTJ Training
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
4.0
2.6
3.3
4.0
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0
Percent Growth, 2006 - 2016
Jobs requiring higher training and
education often relate to higher wages
$70,900
Registered Nurses
Comp. Software Engs. Applications
$89,600
Elem. School Teachers,
Exc. Spec. Ed.
$58,000
$74,000
Accountants and Auditors
$85,400
Comp. Systems Analysts
Network Systems and
Data Comm. Analysts
$82,700
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
6 of the top 25
occupations adding the
most employment
growth require higher
education and training
8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000
Employment Growth 2006 - 2016
Among fastest growing occupations,
healthcare jobs are prominent
Medical Assistants
Home Health Aides
Network Systems and Data Comm. Analysts
Personal and Home Care Aides
Comp. Software Engs. - Applications
Personal Financial Advisors
Dental Assistants
Pharmacy Technicians
Social and Human Service Assistants
Comp. Systems Analysts
0
10
20
30
Percent Growth 2006 - 2016
40
50
Among high wage, non-management jobs,
9 of 10 grow faster than state average
$158,700
Physicians and Surgeons
$120,100
Lawyers
$102,500
Sec., Comm. And Fin. Sales Agents
$98,600
Comp. Software Engs. - Systems Software
$98,200
Pharmacists
$90,600
Management Analysts
$89,600
Comp. Software Engs. - Applications
$89,100
Financial Analysts
$85,400
Comp. Systems Analysts
$84,100
Sales Reps., Whsl. & Mfg., Tech. & Sci. Products
0
10
20
30
40
Percent Growth 2006 - 2016
50
Among top 10 jobs with most jobs lost,
all have average wage less than the state
Packers and Packagers, Hand
Stock Clerks and Order Fillers
File Clerks
Laborers and Freight, Stock and Material Movers, Hand
Order Clerks
Secretaries, Exc. Legal, Medical and Executive
Telemarketers
Fastest declining
occupations list (%) still
consists mostly of
Production occupations
Work Processors and Typists
Cashiers
Packaging and Filling Machine Operators and Tenders
-8,000
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
Employment Decline 2006 - 2016
0
NEW JERSEY
REGIONAL AND
COUNTY DATA
Northern
Region
BERGEN
ESSEX
HUDSON
Generally, these counties have large
employment but grow at a slower rate
Combined, this region accounts for
over 45% of all NJ employment…
geographically less than 15% of NJ area
Projected to have more than 58,000
annual average job openings, more
than double any other region
MORRIS
PASSAIC
UNION
Essex
County
Third largest county in total
employment, despite small
geographic size
Most employment in
Transportation and
Warehousing sector among NJ
counties with 30,650 in 2006
Air transportation industry, namely
Newark Liberty International,
projected to add more than 3,000
jobs, annual growth of almost 2%
Northwestern
Region
This two-county region is by far the
smallest in the State in employment with
83,700 in 2006, accounting for only 2%
of NJ employment despite accounting
for over 10% of land area
Projected employment gains in
Healthcare and Social Assistance
would account for nearly 40% of
all growth in this region
SUSSEX
WARREN
Sussex
County
Half of total employment found
within Healthcare, Trade, and
Government sectors
6th largest NJ county by
area, but has 4th least
employment in 2006
2nd fewest manufacturing jobs
among NJ counties with only
2,100 in 2006…behind only
Cape May
Central
Region
HUNTERDON
MERCER
In 2006, more than one in five jobs
(21.9%) found in Central region,
nearly 900,000 in employment
Region projected to outpace growth of
the state and add about 60,000 more jobs
More than one-quarter of all
employment in Government and
Professional and Business services
MIDDLESEX
SOMERSET
Middlesex
County
With employment of 419,600 in 2006, Middlesex is the
second largest county in the state in employment,
and will also add the second most jobs with 25,350
Largest Manufacturing sector
among NJ counties with
employment of 42,800 in 2006,
30% of which is chemical
More than 80,000 jobs in
Professional and Business
services, most of any
county
Coastal
Region
ATLANTIC
CAPE MAY
Projected to be the fastest growing
region, adding almost 48,000 jobs,
or nearly 8%
Retail trade and Accommodation and
food services make up over 30% of all
employment in Coastal region
More than 90% of all employment
in Service-providing industries,
highest ratio among regions
MONMOUTH
OCEAN
Ocean
County
With total growth of 10.2%,
Ocean is projected to be the
fastest growing county in the state,
adding 16,200 jobs
Healthcare and Social Assistance
will continue to be the largest
industry in Ocean, adding nearly
9,000 jobs for annual growth of
2.6%, and accounting for more
than half of all job growth in
Ocean
Southern
Region
BURLINGTON
CAMDEN
CUMBERLAND
Projected to add 43,550 jobs through
2016, an increase of 6.9%
Healthcare and Social Assistance
industry alone will add 18,700 new jobs,
over 40% of all growth
Trade, Transportation and Utilities
supersector, nearly one-quarter of
Southern region employment, is projected
to add nearly 5,000 jobs by 2016
GLOUCESTER
SALEM
Camden
County
Largest county in Southern region, with employment of
220,800 in 2006, is projected to add 14,100 by 2016
Government, Healthcare and
Social Assistance, and Retail
Trade, Camden’s three largest
industries, account for 43% of
total employment
Healthcare and Social
Assistance industry will add
7,700 new jobs, more than
triple any other industry
Outlook
 Employment
growth in NJ has slowed to a near
halt since the turn of the century, averaging only
0.2% annual growth through 2008
 Many
occupations with above-average wages are
projected to grow faster than the state average
 Automation
and other technology is
contributing to the reduction of lesser skilled
occupations
Questions or Comments?
Contact Jason Timian
Call:
E-mail:
609-777-3635
[email protected]
On the Web at:
www.nj.gov/labor