Transcript The government should address climate change immediately

"Climate versus the economy:
what's the right trade-off?
Prof. William
Moomaw
The Fletcher School
October 17, 2008
Four reasons to be concerned
Energy security means economic security, and
our supply of oil is vulnerable to disruption in
unstable regions of the world
The era of cheap fossil fuels is over and spiking
prices are contributing to current economic
recession world wide
Diplomatic implications of current system of oil
dependence on governments that are not
necessarily allies of democratic nations
Climate change and other pollution is growing at
a staggering rate
Volatile oil prices
Comments of Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice
“We do have to do something about the energy
problem. I can tell you that nothing has really
taken me aback more as secretary of State than
the way that the politics of energy is -- I will use
the word warping -- diplomacy around the world.
It has given extraordinary power to some states
that are using that power in not very good ways
for the international system”
Testimony before US Senate Committee on
Foreign Relations April 12, 2006
What has been happening to
the economy?
• “IMF says US crisis is
'largest financial
shock since Great
Depression’”
• “U.S. Banking Losses
estimated at $1.4
trillion”
• “Forecasters see U.S.
leading global
downturn”
• If you think the financial crisis is a downer
climate change will produce even more
severe economic dislocations!
Temperatures are up!
2007 tied for second warmest year
Heat trapping gases are up!
• “Carbon dioxide output jumps to
record level in 2007”
– “The world pumped up its pollution of the chief
man-made global warming gas last year,
setting a course that could push beyond
leading scientists' projected worst-case
scenario, international researchers said
Thursday.”
– The increase was 3% from 2006-2007
September 25, 2008
Carbon dioxide concentrations
continue to soar
Is it climate change vs.
economic growth?
• Climate change and global warming are the
result of fueling our economic growth with
oil, gas and coal, and using the atmosphere
as a waste dump for the heat trapping
gases released in their combustion
• We are already seeing major negative
impacts and costs of human caused climate
change that threaten our economic growth
The Climate and Economy are
Intimately Linked
• The Stern Review concluded that climate
warming could reduce GWP by 3-10% and
in the worst case could lead to a
depression with a drop of up to 20% in per
capita consumption
• Estimated cost of avoiding worst climate
damage would be 1% of GWP
• Addressing climate creates jobs and a
sustainable economy
Joseph Stiglitz commenting on
Stern Review for UK government
• “It makes clear that the question is not whether we
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can afford to act, but whether we can afford not to
act. To be sure, there are uncertainties, but what it
makes clear is that the downside uncertainties make a
compelling case for action.”
“And it provides a comprehensive agenda - one
which is economically and politically feasible behind which the entire world can unite in addressing
this most important threat to our future well being.”
What does science say?
“The paper concludes that it is increasingly
unlikely any global agreement will deliver the
radical reversal in emission trends required for
stabilization at 450 ppmv carbon dioxide
equivalent (CO2e). Similarly, the current framing
of climate change cannot be reconciled with the
rates of mitigation necessary to stabilize at 550
ppmv CO2e and even an optimistic
interpretation suggests stabilization much below
650 ppmv CO2e is improbable.”
2008
Tyndall Center for
Climate Research, UK
IPCC 2007 Assessment Report
• “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as
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is now evident from observations in global air and
sea temperatures, widespread melting of snow and
ice and rising of global average sea levels.”
“Most of the observed increase in global average
temperatures since the mid-20th century is very
likely due to the observed increase in
anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.”
(90% confidence level)
Has anything changed since our
last debate?
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2007 second warmest year
More droughts in Africa, U.S. and Australia
Intense storms such as the Myanmar typhoon
More loss of ice from Greenland
Glaciers continue to retreat at accelerating rates
Loss of arctic sea ice in 2007 was 1 million sq.
miles more than the average from 1979-2000
Loss of Arctic Sea Ice in 2008 was large as well
• Other than that, not much
Sea ice extent 9/16/07
With the opening of the
Northwest Passage
• New shipping route will allow cheaper transport of
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Chinese goods to Europe
Everyone is rushing to drill for more oil and gas in
the Arctic to put more CO2 into the atmosphere
Russia has claimed the North Pole
Welcome to 19th century diplomacy and a 21st
century climate
Greenland ice melt is faster
than previously measured NASA
Climate change is already
causing damage
• Frequency of hot days is increasing with major
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health effects from Europe to India
Drought is more frequent and intense in US and
in Africa
Forest fires have increased because of early
snow melt in Rocky Mountains
Coastal erosion is increasing along US and
European coasts
Intensity of hurricanes has increased by 50%
Insured storm losses have grown dramatically
In the words of the U.S.
insurance industry
• “Wildfires have increased fourfold since
the 1980s, and they are bigger and harder
to contain because of earlier-arriving
springs and hotter, bone-dry summers.
Last year's fires broke records; this year
could be worse.”
Fires in Los Angeles Oct. 2008
“Wildfire activity increased
suddenly in the mid-1980s.
Hydroclimate and fires are
closely related, and climate
variation has been the primary
cause of the increase in
fires… during the period of
their study.
Longer springs and summers
that could result as the world
warms will continue to
lengthen the fire season and
continue to cause more large
wildfires.”
Science 313 pp 940-943
18 August 2006
This is hardly increasing
economic growth
• The loss of forests to fire in the world
changes the economic return from an
otherwise sustainable resource from an
economic gain to an economic loss while
increasing the amount of carbon dioxide to
the atmosphere
Insurance Industry (cont.)
Storm activity in Massachusetts
Drought in Africa is worsening
Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar, like
Hurricane Katrina, may have
been intensified by warmer
oceans
Future damage will only
increase more
• We are likely to see increases in heat waves
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such as the 2003 event that killed 16,000 people
in Europe
Will see agricultural losses continue to grow as
they did in US in 2006 and Australia from 200507
The rising cost of rice is due in large measure to
climate change induced droughts in Australia
that dropped rice production by 98% last year
Climate change is largely
irreversible so we should take
precautionary actions soon
• The major heat trapping gas in the atmosphere
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is carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels
It has a half life of approximately 100 years
Sea level is rising faster than predicted and can
not be reversed over periods of thousands of
years
Tropical storm intensity is up 50% since 1970
Nobel Memorial Prize winning
economists agree action now is
justified to address climate
change
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Robert M. Solow 1987 prize
James Mirrlees 1996 prize
Amartya Sen 1998 prize
Joseph Stiglitz 2001 prize
Solutions are possible and
profitable if we act soon
• “The United States could reduce GHG emissions
in 2030 by 3.0 to 4.5 gigatons of CO2e using
tested approaches and high-potential emerging
technologies. These reductions would involve
pursuing a wide array of abatement options with
marginal costs less than $50 per ton, with the
average net cost to the economy being far lower
if the nation can capture sizable gains from
energy efficiency.”
– McKinsey “Reducing U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions: How
Much Will it Cost?” December 2007
Economic gains from renewable
energy industry
• Germany has added nearly 300,000
industrial jobs in the renewable energy
industry
• Canada produces some of world’s most
efficient windows doors and other building
components
• Denmark’s wind turbines are a leading
global brand and employ thousands
Economic Opportunities
• Solar Energy
– Domestic hot water from solar thermal panels
• Sun Tech began in 2001 and is now a $7 billion
per year company
– It will exceed all of US capacity by 2010
– Its CEO is the world’s first solar billionaire
– The company is based in China
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Economic Opportunities
• Wind power installations for electricity are
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doubling every three years
In 2007 wind capacity installed exceeded either
that of nuclear power or hydroelectricity
Wind provides 21% of Danish electricity and
much of northern Germany’s
Wind provided more than 1% of global electricity
last year
The fastest growing wind company is Suzlon of
India which is buying US and European firms
Why has the US government
waited?
• Powerful interests ensure the continued use of
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19th century fuels, sunset technologies, and
continue to block the full introduction of sunrise
21st century technology
Disinformation campaign by think tanks and the
fossil fuel industry
Because George Bush was a “Child Left Behind”
All of the above
Things may be changing in U.S.
• Cities and states are moving rapidly to reduce
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emissions - Chicago, NY, MA, NY, CA
Supreme Court ruled CO2 is a pollutant
A dozen climate bills before US Congress
– They set emission reductions of 50-80% by 2050
• All three presidential candidates support a
strong climate action plan
Things may be changing (cont.)
• Large private sector companies are calling on
federal government to require GHG emissions
reductions
– This includes Alcoa, BP, Duke Energy, Dupont,
General Electric, Shell, Rio Tinto
• 15 members of the Rockefeller family have
publicly asked Exxon Mobil to provide an action
plan for addressing climate change to protect
shareholder value
Address climate change and the
financial crises together
• Blocking climate protecting energy efficient
vehicles and efficient power plants has not
served US industry well
• Utilize targeted energy transforming
expenditures for efficient vehicles,
renewable energy, investment in a new
efficient electrical grid into economic
stimulus
•v Provide tax benefits for job creation
International Negotiations
are under way
• Beginning last December in Bali, new
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international negotiations began for a new
agreement for nations to take real action
The U.S. is now out of compliance with
international norms on climate change
Now is the time to enter the lucrative
opportunities that are available to address
climate change at a profit
A warming climate will reduce our
economic growth and well being!
Take actions now that improve our
lifestyles, make economic sense and
reverse the growth of heat trapping gases
Reductions in emissions of just 3%/year
will set us on the path to a prosperous
and sustainable 21st century economy
and climate
The Moomaw Everett Debate Continues