Transcript SCHEME OF PRESENTATION

China 2020: A Confucian
Democracy?
RAVI BHOOTHALINGAM
4 May 2011
Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses
Will China……………
A. Become a democracy?
B. Collapse?
C. Evolve in unexpected ways?
Which time-bomb(s) will explode?
A. Political: ‘the chaos of democracy’?
B. Economic: ‘the hard landing’?
C. Social: regional disparities and disorder?
D. Environmental: ‘poisoned water’?…
….or will China
Carve a unique pathway of her own into
the future?
China’s modernisation: xiandai
Understanding China in her own terms
“Ways Of Thinking” ie Competences
INDIA
CHINA
Universal, Oral
Abstract,
Sequential,
Diversity and
individualism
Mythology, legend
Complexity
Flux & creativity
Deductive logic:
Left Brain
Concrete, Pattern,
Particular, Visual
Holistic,
Unity across time
& space, collective
History, proverbs
Practicality
Harmony, order
Inductive logic:
Left/Right Brain
“Ways Of Thinking”
INDIA
CHINA
Linear, digital*
Analogical, nonlinear
Influence through Influence through
Parallel worlds
Concentric circles
Melody
Harmony
Reality is*:
Reality is: specific,
ambiguous, with
with events in a
events in sequence flow
From Confucius’ ‘Great Learning’
‘When things are investigated, knowledge is extended,
When knowledge is extended, thoughts are made
sincere,
When thoughts are made sincere, the heart and mind
are rectified,
When the heart and mind are rectified, the personal life
is cultivated,
When the personal life is cultivated, then the family is
regulated,
When the family is regulated, the state will be in order,
When the state is in order, there will be peace
throughout the world.’
The Confucian heritage-1
From small to big, specific to general
Man not alone but part of relationships
Importance of family, hierarchy, society
“The five relationships” & harmony
Human nature: a/c to the West, Confucius
The Confucian heritage-2
Self- cultivation and education
Legalists and coercion
Individual and the collective
Governance as a learnt art
Human Nature & Governance
(a la Confucius)
1.Human nature is capable of good and evil
2.Winner => ‘self-cultivation’, education
3.Society, duties, > > individualism, rights
4.Harmony as the basic regulating principle
5.Government is part of man’s relationships
6.Governing: virtue, training, experience
7.Virtue = effort now, gratification later
8.Harmonious governance is best for all
The More Things Change……
Despite Mao, Confucian ethic alive and
flourishing in China
How this heritage supports China’s growth
Communist rhetoric conceals the cooption
of the Confucian and imperial state
Maintain harmony though difference exists
The More Things Change……
“Teach them! Enrich them!”….Confucius
“To get rich is glorious!”…Deng Xiao Ping
(“ Garibi Hatao!”…………..Indira Gandhi)
-------------------------------------------------------“I hear, then I forget
I see, then I remember
I do, and then I understand” …Confucius
“Learning by doing is true education”-Mao
China’s essence & the Communists
Filial piety and the one-child policy
Face, shame and humiliation
The Great Exemplars
Law, mediation and fairness
Governance—the CPC’s Dilemma
The ‘3-Represents’ breaks down
Cronyism and Corruption
The Social Contract under Stress
The limits of economism:
Yan Xuetong’s Lament
“Today, China’s attractiveness comes from its
economic power, but that situation cannot last.
Money worship is not attractive enough.
You need moral power.”
So, the Party School investigates…..
The Study of Democracies
Anglo-American democracies
European & Scandinavian Soc-Dem Govts
India & Indonesia—diverse emerging nations
The East Asian Tigers
“Scientific Development”
Mao Zedong Thoughts
Deng Xiaoping Theory
Jiang Zemin: “Three Represents”
Hu Jintao: Scientific Development
Scientific Development-1
Elitist expert decision making
Consultation, deliberation, (implied consent)
Intra-party democracy, merit and incentives
Interventionist & corporatist governance
Long-term Utility with humanist boundaries
Scientific Development-2
Rigid frameworks and responses by Party
The Internet—friend or foe?
Citizens--Remonstration or Revolt?
Progress by “punctuated equilibrium”?
A Confucian Democracy?
A Sinic version of Lincoln
Of the People, For the People
BUT NOT: By the People?
RATHER: With the People
A Confucian vision of the Future
No ‘Western Enlightenment’ moral framework
‘Harmonious World’ with China at the centre
Governance as a Sui Generis process
THANK YOU!