Transcript Slide 1
THE CULTURE WAR OVER FOOD AND FARMING: WHO IS WINNING? Robert Paarlberg [email protected] University of Wisconsin April 20, 2012 FUNDAMENTAL DISAGREEMENTS • Over what farms should look like • Over the most important challenge to farming • Over farming’s proper relationship to nature • Over who should make decisions about food and agriculture WHAT FARMS SHOULD LOOK LIKE ADVOCATES FOR CONVENTIONAL AGRICULTURE Large, specialized farms are OK. ADVOCATES FOR ALTERNATIVE AGRICULTURE Large, specialized farms are not OK. THE MOST IMPORTANT CHALLENGE TO FARMING ADVOCATES FOR CONVENTIONAL AGRICULTURE Produce much more food by 2050 ADVOCATES FOR ALTERNATIVE AGRICULTURE Preserve traditional rural livelihoods, protect biodiversity, and provide ecosystem services. FARMING’S PROPER RELATIONSHIP TO NATURE ADVOCATES FOR CONVENTIONAL AGRICULTURE Protect nature by generating high yields, to reduce the area being cropped. ADVOCATES FOR ALTERNATIVE AGRICULTURE The best systems are those that imitate nature. WHO SHOULD MAKE DECISIONS ABOUT AGRICULTURE? ADVOCATES FOR CONVENTIONAL AGRICULTURE Governments, technical experts, and the market. ADVOCATES FOR ALTERNATIVE AGRICULTURE Governments, experts, and markets are not to be trusted. THE OPPOSING CAMPS THE CAMP SYMPATHETIC TO CONVENTIONAL AGRICULTURE •Commercial Farmers •Agribusiness Companies •Ag Committees of Cong. •Scientists •Economists THE CAMP SYMPATHETIC TO ALTERNATIVE AGRICULTURE • Environmental advocates • Social justice advocates • Anti-corporate activists • Anti-globalization activists • Cultural elites ALTERNATIVE AGRICULTURE DOMINATES THE CULTURAL MARKETPLACE: LOCAL FOOD: OUTCOMES IN COMMERCIAL MARKETPLACE • Number of farmers markets in US has doubled since 1998 • Number of CSA’s has risen from 400 in 2001 to at least 4000 today • Even so, food sales through farmers markets and CSA’s make up only 4/10 of 1% of all agricultural sales in the United States ORGANIC FOOD: OUTCOMES IN COMMERCIAL MARKETPLACE • In 2010, only 4% of food sales organic • Only 7% of these organic food sales took place at farmers’ markets • 45% of organic production in just two states, with large, specialized farms Harvested Organic Cropland in 2008 was 0.51% of the US Total Cropland Harvested Organic Cropland, 1,596,865 Remaining US Cropland Acres, 308,010,736 Vegetable Crops: Relative Yields Relative Yields for Organic Vegetables Sweet Potatoes Snap Beans Sweet Corn Squash Broccoli Potatoes Cauliflower Watermelon 100% Tomatoes Onions Cantaloupes Celery Bell Peppers Garlic Cabbage Spinach Carrots Lettuce Artichokes 0 20 40 60 80 100 Percent of Overall Average 120 140 Row Crops: Relative Yields Relative Yields for Organic Row Crops Canola Rye Oats Dry edible beans Peanuts Corn Cotton Flaxseed Soybeans 100% Peas, lentils etc Winter Wheat Rice Durum Wheat Spring Whet Sorghum Proso Millet Safflower 0 20 40 60 80 Percent of Overall Average 100 120 IS CONVENTIONAL AGRICULTURE FALTERING? Annual Rate of Growth of TFP 1970-90 1991-06 North America 1.49 1.91 Asia 1.51 2.62 FARMING IN USA NO LONGER INPUT-INTENSIVE SUSTAINABILITY GAINS FROM MODERN FARMING IN OECD COUNTRIES, 1990-2004 VOLUME OF FOOD PRODUCTION + 5 PERCENT LAND AREA FARMED - 4 PERCENT IRRIG. WATER USE - 9 PERCENT EXCESS “N” USE - 17 PERCENT PESTICIDE USE - 5 PERCENT G. GAS EM. FROM AG - 3 PERCENT INCREASE IN TOTAL EN. USE IN AG 1/6 THE RATE OF INCREASE IN REST OF ECONOMY POST-1980 EMERGENCE OF “PRECISION” CROP FARMING • More precise irrigation techniques • More precise fertilizer use • Reduced pesticide use • Reduced tillage, saving diesel fuel GPS Equipped Tractor Pre-plant Variable Rate Irrigation GIS MAPPING: INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGE UPTAKE OF PRECISION FARMING OHIO, 2010 All Farms Big Farms ($1 million in sales) (50% of all sales) MOUNTED GPS DEVICE 30.2% 78.5% YIELD MONITOR DEVICE 25.3% 79.7% GEO-REFERENCED SOIL MAPPING 22.7% 55.8% DRIP IRRIGATION Home Made Drip Irrigation REDUCING PESTICIDE USE • Since 1972, U.S. ban on organochlorine insecticides • Since 1990s, variable rate application • Since 1996 introduction of Bt corn and Bt cotton (reducing insecticide use) • Since 1996 introduction of glyphosate-resistant soybeans (replacing herbicides that are more toxic to animals) Bt Corn: Protection Against Corn Borer 2010 REPORT FROM EU COMMISSION DIRECTORATE-GENERAL FOR RESEARCH: "The main conclusion to be drawn from the efforts of more than 130 research projects, covering a period of more than 25 years of research, and involving more than 500 independent research groups, is that biotechnology, and in particular GMOs, are not per se more risky than, for example, conventional plant breeding technologies." REDUCED TILLAGE AND CULTIVATION TO SAVE SOIL AND DIESEL FUEL • 1980s: Machines that seed unplowed fields • 1990s: Glyphosate-resistant crops that allow reduced mechanical cultivation Seeding Without Plowing ABSOLUTE LEVELS OF FARM PRODUCTIVITY Production Value Per Cereal Production per Agricultural Worker Hectare of Land UNITED STATES THAILAND KENYA $45,000 6.6 tons $705 3.0 tons $350 1.6 tons LIVESTOCK FARMING: A SEPARATE ISSUE? CAFOS LIVESTOCK FARMING CAFOs work well for: • Reducing costs to consumers • Reducing the frequency of food contamination CAFOs work less well for: • Waste disposal • Dependence on antibiotics • Animal welfare LEGAL, POLITICAL, AND COMMERCIAL ENVIRONMENT INCREASINGLY HOSTILE TO CAFOs • Court and FDA actions against growth promotion use of antibiotics • State level bans on gestation crates and small cage space for hens • Voluntary phase-outs of pork from sow crates by Hormel, Smithfield Foods, Whole Foods, Chipolte, McDonald’s CONCLUSION: WHO IS WINNING? • Alternative agriculture has recently become dominant in the elite cultural marketplace. • Conventional crop farming has given up none of its dominance in the commercial marketplace. • Conventional livestock farming is being forced to accept new restraints from the commercial and political marketplace.