Transcript City of Chelsea - Swampscott, MA

TOWN OF SWAMPSCOTT
FINANCIAL FORECAST FISCAL YEARS
2015 – 2019
Tom Younger
Town Administrator
November 6, 2013
Budget Pressures
•
Any Economic Recovery Underway is Not Yet Providing Relief
for the Town’s Budget;
•
The Chronic State Budget Crisis Continues to Impact
Chapter 70 Revenues;
•
The Town is Controlling Discretionary Spending, However
some Non-Discretionary Spending, Like Health Insurance and
Pension Costs, Continue to Rise Beyond Inflation;
•
Creating a Viable Long-Term Capital Plan with Funds
Available;
•
Plan for Funding OPEB (GASB 45) Prior to Being Mandated;
•
We Must Continue the Commitment to Increase our Reserves
to “Best Practice” Levels while Eliminating our Reliance on
One-Time Revenues or We will Jeopardize the Town’s Bond
Rating and Cost of Capital.
Five Year Financial Forecast
Pro Forma Assumptions - General Fund Revenues
• State Aid is Projected to remain level in FY15 With a 2%
Increase in FY2016 Through FY2019;
• Tax Levy and Levy Limit will Grow Approximately by 2-3%
Through FY2019;
• Charges, Licenses, Fees and Miscellaneous Revenue
Projected to Increase in FY2015 due to some major projects
in town;
• Reduce the Use of Free Cash to only pay for one-time costs.
Additional Amounts May Need to be Used to Fund the Town’s
Rainy Day Fund;
• Nahant Tuition is Expected to be $1,336,046 for FY15;
• Other Sources of Revenue Include: Enterprise Fund Indirects
($802,000).
Five Year Financial Forecast
Pro Forma Assumptions - General Fund Expenses
• Salaries and Operating Expenses (Including Schools) Projected to
Increase 3% for FY15 through FY19;
• Health Insurance Costs Projected to Increase by 5% in FY2015 and
FY16 and Increase By 10% Annually through FY2019 Based on the
Presumed Cost to Implement the Affordable Health Care Bill
Adopted by Congress in 2010;
• Due to the Funding Schedule Adopted by the Retirement Board, the
Retirement Appropriation is Expected to Increase by 4% in FY2015
and 5% Each Year Thereafter;
• State and County Charges and Cherry Sheet Offsets are Expected
to Increase 2.5% Each Fiscal Year;
• Debt Service Based Upon Current and Future Capital Improvement
Programs;
• The Lynn Sewer Connection was paid off in FY14.
Five Year Financial Forecast
Revenue and Expenditure Summary General Fund
FY14-TM Adopt
FY15-EST
FY16-EST
FY17-EST
FY18-EST
FY19-EST
40,706,438
41,954,724
43,285,467
44,726,354
46,152,013
47,587,688
225,000
275,000
350,000
300,000
275,000
275,000
3,107,838
2,819,414
2,757,708
2,689,352
2,615,682
2,541,235
REVENUES
Property Taxes
New Growth
Debt Exclusion
Total Tax Revenue
$
44,039,276 $
45,049,138 $
46,393,175 $
47,715,706 $
49,042,695 $
50,403,923
Local Receipts-
4,014,600
4,350,000
4,250,000
4,200,000
4,225,000
4,250,000
State Aid
3,972,571
3,972,571
4,052,022
4,133,063
4,215,724
4,300,039
Free Cash *
160,000
100,000
100,000
100,000
100,000
100,000
Other Available Funds
802,000
802,000
802,000
802,000
802,000
802,000
$
52,988,447 $
54,273,709 $
55,597,197 $
56,950,769 $
58,385,419 $
59,855,961
Base Operating Expense***$
37,860,890 $
38,996,717 $
40,166,618 $
41,371,617 $
42,612,765 $
43,891,148
TOTAL REVENUE
EXPENSES
Group Health
4,625,000
4,856,250
5,099,063
5,608,969
6,169,866
6,786,852
Other Personnel Benefits
4,314,374
4,486,949
4,711,296
4,946,861
5,194,204
5,453,915
Debt Service - CIP
4,820,818
4,895,581
4,419,171
4,107,670
3,856,489
3,448,560
Sewer Debt
499,908
Non- Appropriated Exp.
844,803
865,923
887,571
909,760
$
52,965,793 $
54,101,420 $
55,283,719 $
56,944,877 $
58,765,829 $
$
22,654 $
172,289 $
313,478 $
5,891 $
(380,410) $
TOTAL EXPENSES
SURPLUS (DEFICIT)-
-
-
-
932,504.44
955,817
60,536,292
(680,330)
Net State Aid Comparison
FY2005-FY2014
Changing Enrollment Analysis
1,600,000
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
FY07
Nahant Tuition
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
Regional School Cost
FY12
FY13
FY14
Charter School Cost
Revenue Allocation
by Percentage
FY 2005 – FY 2014
Tax Levy
State Aid
Local Recipts
Other
1.8
1.7
1.0
2.4
1.9
4.9
4.3
3.2
6.4
4.4
8.0
7.6
7.8
7.8
18.3
18.1
18.8
18.3
7.8
20.3
7.5
18.1
7.0
7.5
8.5
8.9
8.2
8.7
8.0
8.2
68.6
FY05
66.6
FY06
67.6
FY07
69.9
FY08
71.7
FY09
71.8
FY10
82.3
FY11
80.9
FY12
82.3
FY13
83.1
FY14
Where do we go from here?
•Increase Town Reserves
•Stabilization Fund
•Capital Stabilization Fund
•OPEB Trust Fund
• Continue General Government/School Consolidation Discussions for
Improving Service Delivery;
• Don’t Rush to Spend!!!