Transcript City of Chelsea

TOWN OF SWAMPSCOTT
FINANCIAL FORECAST FISCAL YEARS
2014 – 2018
Tom Younger
Town Administrator
November 28, 2012
Budget Pressures
•
Any Economic Recovery Underway is Not Yet Providing Relief
for the Town’s Budget;
•
The Chronic State Budget Crisis Continues to Impact
Chapter 70 Revenues ;
•
The Town is Controlling Discretionary Spending, However
some Non-Discretionary Spending, Like Health Insurance and
Pension Costs, Continue to Rise Beyond Inflation
•
Creating a Viable Long-Term Capital Plan with Funds
Available;
•
Plan for Funding OPEB (GASB 45) Prior to Being Mandated;
•
We Must Continue the Commitment to Increase our Reserves
to “Best Practice” Levels while Eliminating our Reliance on
One-Time Revenues or We will Jeopardize the Town’s Bond
Rating and Cost of Capital.
Five Year Financial Forecast
Pro Forma Assumptions - General Fund Revenues
• State Aid is Projected to remain level in FY14 and FY15 With a
2% Increase in FY2016 Through FY2018;
• Tax Levy and Levy Limit will Grow Approximately by 3% Through
FY2018;
• Charges, Licenses, Fees and Miscellaneous Revenue Projected
to Increase Minimally in FY2014 Through FY2018 due to the
current economy with a Tri-annual Review of Our Rates;
• Reduce the Use of Free Cash to $100,000 for FY2014 Through
FY2018, Additional Amounts May Need to be Used to Fund the
Town’s Rainy Day Fund;
• Nahant Tuition is Expected to be $1,135,600 for FY14;
• Other Sources of Revenue Include: Enterprise Fund Indirects
($802,000).
Five Year Financial Forecast
Pro Forma Assumptions - General Fund Expenses
• Salaries and Operating Expenses (Including Schools) Projected to
Increase 2.5% for FY14 and 2.5% Annually Thereafter;
• Health Insurance Costs Projected to Increase by 10% in FY2014
and Increase By 10% Annually through FY2018 Based on the
Presumed Cost to Implement the Affordable Health Care Bill
Adopted by Congress in 2010;
• Due to the Accelerated Funding Schedule Adopted by the
Retirement Board, the Retirement Appropriation is Expected to
Increase by 10% in FY2014 and 10% Each Year Thereafter;
• State and County Charges and Cherry Sheet Offsets are Expected
to Increase 2.5% Each Fiscal Year;
• Debt Service Based Upon Current and Future Capital Improvement
Programs;
• Includes Sewer Debt Exclusion through FY 2014. FY2014 Will be
Last Full Payment Year;
Five Year Financial Forecast
Revenue and Expenditure Summary General Fund
FY13-TM Adopt
FY14-EST
FY15-EST
FY1-EST
FY17-EST
FY18-EST
39,442,674
40,706,438
41,929,099
43,182,326
44,466,885
45,783,557
270,924
200,000
200,000
200,000
200,000
200,000
3,885,162
3,135,660
2,578,276
2,518,921
2,457,769
2,385,793
REVENUES
Property Taxes
New Growth
Debt Exclusion
Total Tax Revenue
$
43,598,760 $
44,042,098 $
44,707,375 $
45,901,247 $
47,124,654 $
48,369,350
Local Receipts-
4,289,150
4,150,000
4,175,000
4,200,000
4,225,000
4,250,000
State Aid
3,972,571
3,972,571
3,972,511
4,051,961
4,133,000
4,215,660
Free Cash *
315,000
100,000
100,000
100,000
100,000
100,000
Other Available Funds
927,000
802,000
802,000
802,000
802,000
802,000
$
53,102,481 $
53,066,669 $
53,756,886 $
55,055,209 $
56,384,654 $
57,737,010
Base Operating Expense***$
37,435,280 $
38,371,162 $
39,330,441 $
40,313,702 $
41,321,545 $
42,354,583
TOTAL REVENUE
EXPENSES
Group Health
4,530,000
4,983,000
5,481,300
6,029,430
6,632,373
7,295,610
Other Personnel Benefits
4,181,700
4,599,870
5,059,857
5,565,843
6,122,427
6,734,670
Debt Service - CIP
4,748,440
4,695,700
4,591,219
4,116,463
3,813,502
3,573,138
Sewer Debt
1,188,358
498,902
816,350
836,759
857,678
879,120
$
52,900,128 $
53,985,393 $
55,320,495 $
56,904,557 $
58,790,944 $
60,881,626
$
202,353 $
(918,724) $
(1,563,609) $
(1,849,349) $
(2,406,290) $
(3,144,616)
Non- Appropriated Exp.
TOTAL EXPENSES
SURPLUS (DEFICIT)-
-
-
901,097.65
923,625
Net State Aid Comparison
FY2004-FY2013
Changing Enrollment
Analysis
Revenue Allocation
by Percentage
Closing the FY2014 General Fund
Budget Gap
•State Aid Increase above Forecasted Amount;
•Health Insurance Premium Increases are Less than Expected;
•Reduce Discretionary Spending Without Impacting Service Delivery.