Transcript Slide 1

Nepal's Security Threats
(internal and External)
Geja Sharma Wagle
[email protected]
Determinants of threats
(internal & external)
• Political system(military, autocratic, communist, formal democracy,
functional democracy, advanced democracy)
• Political stability (unstable or stable)
• Performance of the government (dis/less/functional, effective)
• State of the state (poverty, unemployment, peace, conflict, social
harmony/conflict, social system)
• Economic situation (poor, dependent on foreign aid, developing,
developed)
• Security policy (fundamental factors of national security)
• Security situation (poor, conflict/war, under control, out of control,
dependent on foreign powers, post-conflict, stable)
• Foreign policy (fundamental factors of Foreign policy)
• Role of security agencies (in/less/effectiveness, people and human rights
friendly, coercive, repressive)
• Relations with neighbours and super powers
Basic facts and figures
• Nepal isn’t an external threats-free country, but
internal threats are more challenging than external
• More than 85% conflicts are intra-state across the
world
• More than 17,828 people lost their lives due to
internal conflict
• Peace process is in positive direction but Internal
conflict, violence, ethnicity might raise as main
threats
• Nepal have not fought a war with any country after
Sugauli treaty, but external threats exists
• Strategic importance & rivalry between & among
regional & global powers
A proxy war between China & India?
Although one new highway will not in itself push Nepal from
India's sphere of influence -- history, economics, and above
all, geography will see to that -- the mere fact that India may
one day have to compete for Nepal's attention is a sign of
Kathmandu's political reorientation. In 2006, as Nepal's
monarchy teetered, Maoist leaders and pro-democracy
parties signed a comprehensive peace agreement ending a
decade-long civil war. Since then, Kathmandu has been
building a nascent democracy while wedged in a proxy battle
between China and India -- with the United States and
Europe watching closely.
Greg Bruno, Foreign Affairs
May 26, 2010 (May/June 2010, Volume 3, Number 89)
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/features/letters-from/letter-from-kathmandu
Leftist movement in Nepal, eastern India and Latin America?!
Karl Marx believed that the middle class, or at least the capital-owning
slice of it that he called the bourgeoisie, would always remain a small and
privileged minority in modern societies. What happened instead was that
the bourgeoisie and the middle class more generally ended up
constituting the vast majority of the populations of most advanced
countries, posing problems for socialism. From the days of Aristotle,
thinkers have believed that stable democracy rests on a broad middle class
and those societies with extremes of wealth and poverty are susceptible
either to oligarchic domination or populist revolution. When much of the
developed world succeeded in creating middle-class societies, the appeal
of Marxism vanished. The only places where leftist radicalism persists as a
powerful force are in highly unequal areas of the world, such as parts of
Latin America, Nepal, and the impoverished regions of eastern India.
Francis Fukuyama, foreign affairs (Jan/Feb 2012)
The future of history: can liberal democracy survive the decline of the Middle class?
Internal threats
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Poverty and unemployment
Ethnic conflicts for rights, identity & province
Emergence of armed and illegal outfits (108 armed groups)
Political instability and weak government
Weak law enforcement/security agencies
Poor public security and lack of the rule of law
Conflict for natural resources
Natural disaster and calamity
Illegal activities of armed outfits
Federalism and right to self-determination
Religious fundamentalism (Islamic and Hindu)
Culture of violence & impunity
Continued
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Lack of transitional justice and weak judiciary
Emergence of non-state actors
Environmental degradation and migration
Food scarcity
Cyber crime
Communal and ethnic violence
Militarization of society
Politicization of crime and criminalization of crime
Open border
Management of arms & army of the UCPN Maoist
human trafficking and drugs smugglings
Caste based system and social discrimination
Lack of economic opportunities
External threats
 Strategic rivalry of global & regional powers (the US, India &
China)
 Potential interference & playground of international actors
 Immature & abstract foreign policy
 Cross border crime, arms infiltration & smuggling
 Border encroachment
 Economic blockade
 International terrorism
 Military interference
 Tibetan & Bhutanese refugees
 Unwanted activities of intelligence agencies of neighboring and
regional countries
 human trafficking and drugs smugglings
 Smuggling of fake currency
Principles of national security policy
• Safeguard national unity, territorial integrity, national
independence & sovereignty
• Promote democratic principles & values, follow the rule
of law & respect human rights
• Ensure federal, democratic, secular, plural & inclusive
republican state through a new constitution
• Establish warm, intimate & cordial relations with China
& India & follow non interference & peaceful
coexistence policy
• Follow people-centric rather than state & military centric
security policy
• Protect the long cherished identity, values, cultures &
languages
Principles of national security policy (cont)
• Restructure the state respecting the aspirations of the
people (all class, caste, culture, ethnicity, gender etc)
• Protect its people from internal & external conflicts,
ensure public security of its citizens & establish the rule
of law
• Respect the diversity of society & follow true principles
of plurality to mitigate the internal conflict
• Make security agencies accountable to the people,
inclusive & human rights friendly
• Resolve border disputes through diplomatic process,
introduce
border
management
&
monitoring
mechanisms & control transnational terrorism, crimes,
smugglings & illegal activities
Conclusions
• Nepal is transforming into a plural, democratic, multiethnic, federal & secular state from a feudal & unitary
• Definition of national unity & security has widened,
become more people-centric & based on democratic
values & principles
• Significant policy shift on security & internal & external
dynamics
• National security policy needs to be redefined as per the
principles of federal democratic republic & human
security
• Promoting democracy, the rule of law & human rights,
ensuring plural & inclusive state & establishing political
stability should be the basic principles
Conclusions
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Professionalize security agencies
End of impunity & ensure access to justice
Policy should finalize based on national consensus
National security is key instrument in establishing
political stability & political stability is pre-condition
for national security
• Ongoing peace process must bring into the logical
conclusion by permanently resolving the existing
conflict & must ensure sustainable peace
• National Security Council should have role of policy
making, research & policy analysis