Transcript Technologies for meeting the challenges of the 21st Century

Technologies for meeting the global
challenges of the 21st century
Priorities for the current decade
J.P.CONTZEN
IST, LISBOA
The global challenges of the 21st
Century (1)
Two main challenges beyond, or together
with, economic growth: promote human
development and reduce threats to the
environment
Human development i.e. raising the level of wellbeing of a growing number of people:
Improve health conditions
Fight hunger, poverty, social exclusion,
illiteracy
Ensure peace and stability
The global challenges of the 21st
Century (2)
Threats to the environment:
Remediate to the scarcity of renewable and
non-renewable resources:
• Water stress
• Food production stress
• Energy stress
People are no longer scarce, but nature is
The global challenges of the 21st
Century (3)
Threats to the environment (cont.):
Control growing urbanization
Fight land degradation
Fight environmental pollution: greenhouse
gases, Pops, EDCs in water, air, soil
The global challenges of the 21st
Century (4)
A few figures:
Poverty: in the last 2 decades, the world output
grew by more than 20%, but the number of
poor people has risen also by more than 20%.
The poorest fifth of humanity survives on less
than 1$ a day
Hunger: 790 million people are living in hunger
Social exclusion: at global level, income from
work rose only by 2%, as opposed to a 59%
increase in income from capital
The global challenges of the 21st
Century (5)
A few figures (cont.):
Health:
Taking care of elderly people: over the past
50 years, the life expectancy has risen more
than in the last 4,000 years, leading to new
geriatric issues
Combating infectious diseases:
• A young child dies every three seconds,
essentially from infectious diseases
The global challenges of the 21st
Century (6)
A few figures (cont.):
• AIDS: 33.6 million people living with AIDS,
3 million dead in 2000
• Resurrection of TB, about 1.5 million people
die each year from TB. Nearly 2 billion
people live with latent TB infection
• Measles lead to some 900 000 fatalities per
year, malaria kills 3,000 people every day
The global challenges of the 21st
Century (7)
A few figures (cont.):
Water Stress: only 2.5% of world water can
support human life. Water use during 20th
Century grew at more than the rate of
population increase. In 2025, 2/3 of world
population could be under water stress
conditions; stress starts when more than 10% of
renewable fresh water resources are used;
already now 460 million people are above the
40%
The global challenges of the 21st
Century (8)
A few figures (cont.):
Land Degradation and Food Production Stress:
1.9 Billion hectares of land worldwide (size of US
+ Canada) are currently affected by
degradation, threatening the food security of
more than 900 million people in 100 countries
The global challenges of the 21st
Century (9)
A few figures (cont.):
Energy Stress: still 2 billion people have no
access to modern energy services and the world
population is expected to double in the next
century. One challenge is to make energy
available to the poor at prices that they can
cope with, another challenge is to provide
CLEAN energy everywhere. The objectives of the
Kyoto Protocol cover only the tip of the iceberg
The global challenges of the 21st
Century (10)
Should the description of these challenges lead
to a pessimistic outlook? No!
The future lies in a combination of good
governance at all levels (local communities,
regions, nations, continents, world) and of
appropriate use of technologies
« May the rains come on time! May there be a
bountiful harvest! May the world be contented!
May the rulers be righteous! »
Ancient Pali verse
The global challenges of the 21st
Century (11)
Technologies have become a major instrument
of economic and social policy and could become
the major force of social change in the next 10
years
A stronger link between the politicians, the
representatives and the S&T community is
urgently required while paradoxically it is the
time when the gap in the understanding of S&T
by decision-makers and the civil society is at its
lowest level since decades;
The global challenges of the 21st
Century (12)
Technologies have already supported global
development in many areas: growing economic
wealth, lessened work, life expectancy,
extension of the available energy resource base,
increase in agricultural productivity
Technologies have extended so far the carrying
capacity of our Planet. Over the next two
generations, we will need technologies that can
more than double the capacity of humankind to
perform activities in ways that do not further
degrade the life support systems of our planet
The role of technologies (1)
What is the technological offer capable of
meeting such challenge? An combination of:
further advancements in:
Information and Communications technologies
Biotechnologies
Energy technologies
Materials
and
the emergence of Nanotechnologies
The role of technologies (2)
Information and Communications technologies
Some challenges:
Improved accessibility:10$ PC, Internet access in
own language, widespread low-cost access lines
e-Commerce for all, instrument of economic and
social development
e-Health: the virtual medical city
e-Education: virtual Higher Education, lifelong
learning
e-Government: a new life for democracy?
The role of technologies (3)
Information and Communications technologies
(cont.)
Some dangers:
The
The
The
The
The
digital divide: poor/rich, young/old
loss of cultural diversity
development of cyber-crime
loss of privacy
domination of economic oligopoles
The role of technologies (4)
Biotechnologies:
Biotechnology is currently a major driving force in
technological innovation. Its impact in the socioeconomic world is significant and it offers the
promises, if adequately managed, to lead to a
win-win scenario, combining economic and social
benefits and reducing the North-South divide.
The role of technologies (5)
Biotechnologies (cont.):
It is a big source of money:
global biotechnology product sales in 2003: 23 billion $,
forecasted 85 billion $ in 2010
US alone: 16 billion $ divided in:
•
•
•
•
•
Human therapeutics/drugs: 74.0%
Human diagnostics:
13.5%
Agriculture:
7.0%
Specialties (chemicals, etc.): 3.5%
Non-medical diagnostics:
2.0%
Source: European Chemical News
January 20th, 2003
The role of technologies (6)
Biotechnologies (cont.):
It is also a big source of hope:
Immense impact on health
Enhancement of food production
Promising impact for the protection of the
environment: clean production of chemicals,
detection of pollutants, bioremediation
The role of technologies (7)
Biotechnologies (cont.):
The health preoccupation is reflected by the
large share of the market. Human diagnostics is
an area of particular growth. Agricultural
products, GMO’s in particular, constitute the
most publicized trade issue, while in fact they
represent less than 10% of the total market.
The role of technologies (8)
Biotechnologies in the health sector
Some challenges:
Justified recourse to stem cells
Exploitation of protein engineering, genomics,
combinatorial chemistry
Generalized access to human diagnostics
Development of animals as production factories
for human pharmaceuticals
The role of technologies (9)
Biotechnologies in the agricultural sector
Some challenges:
Produce higher yields: raise biological
productivity without associated ecological harm
Increase resistance to drought, to sea-water
intrusion
These technologies can benefit enormously from
the gene revolution
The role of technologies (10)
« The 20th Century began with the rediscovery of
Mendel’s laws of inheritance. It ended with the
moving of specific genes across sexual barriers
with the help of molecular mapping and
recombinant DNA technology »
M.S.Swaminathan
The role of technologies (11)
Biotechnologies in the environmental field
Some challenges:
Develop biological waste management and land
remediation
Introduce « smart » water treatment
Produce safer fertilizers
The role of technologies (12)
Biotechnologies
Some dangers:
Remaining unclear about ethical issues such as
human cloning or sex determination (impact in
India or China!)
Bioethics
Failing to exercise global governance on the
issue of gene technology in agriculture and
environmental protection Biosafety
Facilitate bio-terrorism
Biosecurity
The role of technologies (13)
Energy technologies
Some challenges:
Widen the clean use of hydrocarbons: Fuel Cells
(local co-generation, transportation, µ batteries)
Consider the clean use of coal: coal gasification,
liquefaction together with methods for CO²
sequestration
Develop hydrogen as an energy vector
The role of technologies (14)
Energy technologies (cont.)
Some challenges:
Improve energy storage, all the way from the smallest
(micro batteries) to the largest size (GWh storage rings)
Review energy distribution methods, notably for
developing countries
Review the architecture of electricity networks in terms
of stability (contribution of « wild » sources) and
vulnerability.
The role of technologies (13)
Energy technologies
Some dangers:
Antagonizing growth and environmental
protection.
In particular, being too emotional about the
future of nuclear energy and the environmental
impact of geothermal and of big hydro
The role of technologies (14)
Materials « the hidden side of technological
spearheading »
Some challenges:
The development of nanomaterials
The realization of very large structural elements
The development of intelligent materials: self
healing, failure warning, shape memory
The increase in service life
The exploitation of surface functionality
The role of technologies (15)
Nanotechnologies. The emerging revolution
Some challenges:
Applications in new fabrication techniques,
nano-scale production processes
Use in health diagnostics
New applications in ICT’s, quantum computing
Use in µ energy storage
Development of self organizing micro-robots
The role of technologies (16)
Nanotechnologies
Some dangers:
Ignoring health safety aspects
Favoring nano-tech weapons
Leading to evolution beyond control
In conclusion (1)
Technologies benefit from the tremendous
vitality of upstream science that opens new
horizons for meeting the formidable global
challenges of the 21st Century
The development of technologies is not without
danger but self restraint and good political
governance should limit their possible negative
impact
In conclusion (2)
Any judgment about the role of technology
should be made in view of global challenges and
not solely on the basis of local politics
There is now a unique opportunity to reconcile
technology and people’s basic aspirations
« Technology is increasingly seen as a primary
opportunity for breaking the « Gordian knot »
between increased economic activity and
decreased environmental quality »
Tom Jones, OECD Environment Directorate