Transcript WHAT’S ALL THE FUSS ABOUT?

POLITICAL WAYS & MEANS
TO ADDRESS CLIMATE
CHANGE
GURMIT SINGH
Chairman, CETDEM
[email protected]
Feb. 08, Netherlands
1
Ever wonder…
2
Greenhouse Effect
3
4
5
Global warming affects ALL
• No human or ecosystem is immune
• We ALL contribute in many ways [as will
be shown later]
• ALL are starting to pay the costs which will
RISE over time
• Some are MORE culpable & should ACT
now
6
POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
Health
Climate Changes
Agriculture
Temperature
Forests
Precipitation
Water Resources
and Aquatic Life
Coastal Areas
Sea Level
Rise
Species and Natural Areas
Source: Anne Grambsch (1998)
7
8
Objectives of Framework Convention
on Climate Change [UNFCCC]
To achieve stabilisation of greenhouse gas
concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that
would prevent dangerous anthropogenic
interference with climate system to allow
ecosystems to adapt naturally, to ensure food
production is not threatened and to enable
sustainable development
9
UNDERLYING PRINCIPLES
OF THE UNFCCC
• PRECAUTIONARY –has been undermined by
USA and others waiting for absolute scientific
consensus reached;
• COMMON BUT DIFFERENTIATED
RESPONSBILITIES – basis for Kyoto Protocol
and Annex I grouping;
• HISTORICAL LIABILITY –currently being
ignored as major developing country emissions
growth used to force them to cap & reduce.
10
CLIMATE CHANGE is a global threat
but submerged in POLITICS
• UNFCCC is an intergovernmental agreementhence politics is unavoidable
• But more so since there is a whole range of vested
interests at stake
• Those who believe they will suffer adversely CC
impacts are pitted against those who are
considered historically the largest GHG emitters
• There is a marked North-South divide - OECD vs.
non-OECD, Annex I vs. non-Annex I
• Even G77 is divided between OPEC& rest,
11
AOSIS vs. China, India & Brazil
THE POLITICAL STAKES
• Who will dominate & who will lose out - very
often based on perceptions rather than reality
• The strong have managed to get their way - very
often undermining equity e.g. USA dictating the
Convention, the Protocol and now even rejecting
it- EU & Japan have played 2nd & 3rd fiddle
• Seems to be a secret strategy to delay
implementing actual emission reductions UNTIL
those from China, India & Brazil zoom up - then
to demand these 3 also must reduce - their refusal
will be used as an excuse for current OECD
members not to act - the world can fry!
12
THE REALITY?
13
WHAT IS POLITICAL?
• In some countries, anything that is critical of the
ruling party is considered political i.e. antigovernment & hence anti-national;
• But to me, politics is the mobilisation of the
citizens’ concerns & capabilities to govern and
achieve sustainable development;
• Politicians are mere agents for the achievement of
the people’s aspirations NOT the masters they
make themselves to be.
14
15
Outlook for the future
Annual CO2 emissions in gigatons
(from 2010 linear growth estimation)
40
35
30
global
25
20
developed countries
15
10
5
0
1990
developing countries
1995
2000
2005
2010
Data source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
16
Outlook for the future
Cumulative CO2 emissions in gigatons
(from 2010 linear growth estimation)
6000.0
5000.0
global
4000.0
3000.0
developed countries
2000.0
1000.0
0.0
2000
developing countries
2020
2040
Data source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2000
2060
2080
2100
17
THE FUTURE according to IPCC
18
THE POLITICAL DRIVERS
• EU – both the commission & parliament –but
much depends on the thrust of its citizens;
• The governments of AOSIS [excluding
Singapore?] and low-lying states whose territories
will be flooded over;
• Renewable energy industry as well developers of
mitigation/ adaptation technology who see more
profits from such moves.
19
GOING TO WAR!
• CC is greater threat
than any previous
wars;
• Only way to mobilise
resources and shorten
timeframe to achieve
the global 80% GHG
reductions essential to
avoid 2 deg C rise;
• But must be fought in
SD context and
eliminate global
absolute poverty as
well;
• Billions spent on
military hardware
MUST be redirected to
TT for developing
countries!
20
IS EU A LEADER?
• EU Parliament &
national leaders show
potential but tend to
backslide as in Bali;
• Even within G8, tends
to give way to USA &
even Canada;
• Member nations show
uneven commitment;
• Equiv of Marshall Plan
for TT still to be
endorsed!
• Its style of compromising
within and
internationally weakens
strong leadership!
• Has its political
leadership mged to
decarbonise the EU
economy?
21
SACRIFICING & TONING
DOWN ASPIRATIONS
• The affluent in ALL countries have to make
sacrifices in many wasteful areas but can
still have a good quality of life;
• Those developing economically esp in large
nations like China & India must tone down
their aspirations for even higher energy and
resource usages with a possibility of still
having a better quality of life.
22
NOTHING COMES EASY
• If we want to help curb global warming, we just
cannot keep pointing fingers
• We must ACT - at our personal level, at our jobs,
within our nation, & globally
• Sustainable development [& sustainability] will
NOT occur if global warming worsens esp.
exceeding 2 degree C rise
• Point out the inequities & stop being
HYPOCRITICAL –especially among the
multinationals & the rich!
23
MASS MEDIA & CIVIL
SOCIETY
• MM has to monitor &
report on how well
emission reductions
are being done;
• It should also report
more extensively on
scale of adverse
impacts & local
adaptation action;
• CS should expose
shortcomings in
political action to curb
CC at all levels;
• It should lead
campaigns to change
lifestyles –beyond ME
& MINE syndrome;
24
THE BALI STRUGGLE
25
BEYOND BALI!
• The Bali Roadmap is
weak and vague;
• Cannot wait for
COP15 in 2009 for
effective action to be
taken;
• USA, even under a
new President, may
not take drastic action
needed;
• Australia needs to
reduce rather than
increase further
emissions;
• The next G8 meeting
must move Beyond
Bali;
• Decarbonisation of
g;lobal economy
begun??
END
26