Transcript Human Insecurity in the Mediterranean: Climate Change

The Concept of Human
Security. Climate Change as a
Threat.
Triantafyllos Karatrantos,
University of the Aegean
GOSEM 2013, Rethimnon
Security as a Bicycle
• «Life is like riding a bicycle. To keep your
balance, you must keep moving», Albert
Einstein
• The post- cold war evolution of security
• Broadening and Widening Process
Human Security
• “Human security is a child who did not die, a
disease that did not spread, a job that was not
cut, an ethnic tension that did not explode in
violence, a dissident who was not silenced.
Human security is not a concern with weapons –
it is a concern with human life and dignity…It is
concerned with how people live and breathe in a
society, how freely they exercise their many
choices, how much access they have to market
and social opportunities – and whether they live
in conflict or in peace.” UNDP, 1994
An Ancient Phenomenon
• Human insecurity is an ancient phenomenon
• Famine, war, drought, flood, wild animals,
plague, and enslavement appear in ancient
writings across the world
• Tales of Gilgamesh, written about 2000 BC tell
about floods and scorpions
• Human insecurity is not an innovative creation
of our times
• What has changed are the types of threats and
the institutional capabilities to address them.
Security for Whom?
• The entire concept of security will change – and
change dramatically
• Human security is not about states and nations,
but about individuals and people
• more normatively, “We need to fashion a new
concept of human security that is reflected in the
lives of our people, not in the weapons of our
country.”
On Which Values?
• individual safety and well being in the broad
sense are the primary values
• Traditional state of security emphasizes
territorial integrity and national independence
• Human security pertains safety and well-being
of “all the people everywhere – in their homes,
in their jobs, in their streets, in their
communities, in their environment”.
The Range of HS
The Major Threats?
• According to UNDP Human Security has seven
elements:
• Economic security/threat: poverty
• Food security/threat: hunger and famine
• Health security/threat: injury and disease
• Environmental security/threat: pollution,
environmental degradation and resource depletion
• Personal security/threat: various forms of
violence
• Community security/threat: to the integrity of
cultures
• Political security/threat: political repression
Why Human Security?
• Why is human security an appropriate focus of attention at this
time?
1. mechanisms to address new security threats not exist/
oversight or emergence of new threats rather than deliberate
design
2. configuration of security threats in this post-Cold War period is
fundamentally different/ unprecedented threats
3. the opportunities to address the threats have also increased
“there is an enhanced possibility in the contemporary world to
put our efforts and understanding together to achieve a better
coordinated resistance to the forces that make human survival
so insecure.” (Amartya Sen)
How can be achieved?
• “development, not…through arms.”, five steps are necessary:
1. a human development conception with emphasis on equity,
sustainability, and grassroots participation;
2. a peace dividend to underwrite the broader agenda of human
security;
3. a new partnership between North and South based on “justice, not
charity” which emphasizes “equitable access to global market
opportunities” and economic restructuring;
4. a new framework of global governance built on reform of
international institutions such as the IMF, World Bank, and United
Nations;
5. and finally, a growing role for Global Civil Society
The Altered Security Environment
• The altered Security Environment can be
sketched by different descriptions of recent
changes in the security environment: empirical,
analytical, and institutional.
Empirically Observable Changes
• Empirical accounts of rising threats are exceedingly familiar, and
reach us nearly daily
• The nature of conflict has shifted to intra-state conflict, with
higher incidence of civilian casualties
Description of Threats
• Population pressures, immigration trends, environmental
insecurity.
• The economic crisis dropped large populations roughly into
unanticipated poverty
• Spread of HIV/AIDS and Pandemics
• international criminal activity, nuclear proliferation, drugresistant disease, technological mishaps,
• conflicts across gender, class, ethnicity, or religion
Analytical Advances
• theoretical, qualitative, and quantitative analyses unravel the
form the basis for recommendations for action
• operational responses in part by discovering interconnections
such as the insight that famines are not inevitable results of a
lack of food supply (Logic of Interconnections)
• there has never been a famine in a country with a free press.
(Amartya Sen)
The Case of HS
• the urgency of the problems produces a search
for insights that can be leveraged to safeguard
human security
• central example: the interrelationship between
poverty and conflict
• Other interrelationship of Human Insecurity:
AIDS and information technology post conflict
crime and job-sharing, etc.
International Cooperation
• The institutional configurations and capabilities to address security
threats are changing rapidly, both within countries and
internationally
• Military configurations are changing in response to distinct threats
• Increased collaboration among development agencies and national
governments, and the elaboration of common goals has started to
enable the international community to address more dimensions of
poverty
• Coordination has likewise increased in the private sector: within
firms, in various fora and financial institutions, and in annual
summits.
The Unsatisfactory Division
• Despite these advances, a deep and unsatisfactory division
remains between emergency relief work and long-term
poverty reduction work
• “Organizationally speaking, the international community has
two separate compartments, humanitarian and development,
to respond to war-torn societies. However, the need of these
societies does not fall into two neat categories. The reality
demands much more simultaneous relief, rehabilitation and
development interventions”. (Sen)
Climate Change
• Climate change represents the latest in a series of environmental
drivers of human conflict (drought, desertification, land
degradation, failing water supplies, deforestation, fisheries
depletion, and even ozone depletion)
• dealing effectively with climate change would necessitate drastic
changes to the use of fossil fuels, climate change quickly became
an economic and energy policy issue.
• Τhe language of climate change has shifted once again. Climate
change is now being recast as a threat to international peace and
security.
Climate Change as a Threat
• Over the long term, climate change will lead to additional
resource scarcity and environmental degradation, and may thus
amplify or trigger social and political tensions, conflicts and
security problems.
• The impacts of climate change will thus additionally impair the
capacity of societies to transform conflicts in a constructive and
peaceful manner, and will constrain the capacity of state
institutions to deliver key services and ensure public order and
stability
• climate change is best viewed as a threat multiplier, which may
create or exacerbate insecurities and tensions from the
individual to the international level.
The 3 Linkages
• climate change can be linked to security
mainly through three basic ways
• Contribute to violent conflict and
disputes from the local to the international
level.
• Lead to state fragility, radicalization and
degrading state capacities to implement policies.
• Degrade human security and livelihoods
via increased risks of disasters, food insecurity,
energy poverty etc.
A multi-dimensional concept
Forms of Conflicts
• The Report, under the title, «Climate Change and
International Security» outlines some of the forms of
conflicts:
1. Conflict over resources,
2. Economic damage and risk to coastal cities and critical
infrastructure,
3. Loss of territory and border disputes,
4. Environmentally-induced migration,
5. Situations of fragility and radicalization,
6. Tension over energy supply,
7. Pressure on international governance
UN
 In 1987, the «Brundtland Report» introduces in the discussion the
notion of environmental security.
 In 1994, UNDP described the concept of Human Security, with
environmental threats being its basic pillar.
 In “2004 Report of the High-level Panel on Threats, Challenges and
Change”, climate change was listed as a threat to human security
and as a “threat multiplier”.
 In 2007, after the suggestion of the United Kingdom, a discussion
about Climate, Energy and Security took place in the Security
Council.
 The General Assembly of the United Nations (U.N.) adopted on 3
June 2009 a draft resolution on “Climate change and its possible
security implications” (A/63/281), which has been proposed by the
Pacific Small Island Developing States (PSIDS). The resolution was
adopted by a consensus and 101 states supported it. For the first
time in the history of the U.N., the United States co-sponsored a
climate protection resolution.
OSCE
 As part of its comprehensive approach to security, the OSCE is
concerned with economic and environmental matters, recognizing that
co-operation in these areas can contribute to peace, prosperity and
stability.
 A member of ENVSEC since 2004, OSCE --through the Office for
Economic and Environmental Activities-- publishes reports, collects
information and supports the civic action for environment and security.
 OSCE Strategy Document for the Economic and Environmental
Dimension (Maastricht Strategy) listed climate change as the basic
environmental threat to security.
 In 2009 OSCE formed the Civic Action for Security and Environment
(CASE), a small grant programme which supports civil society
organizations in addressing --in co-operation with their governments—
environmental security issues.
 Finally, OSCE considers water scarcity as one of the most imminent
security threats to South- Eastern Europe, Central Asia and South
Caucasus.
NATO
 Based on a broad definition of security that recognizes the
importance of political, economic, social and environmental
factors, NATO is addressing security challenges emanating
from the environment. This includes extreme weather
conditions, depletion of natural resources, pollution and so on
– factors that can ultimately lead to disasters, regional
tensions and violence.
 NATO is currently conducting these initiatives via its Science
for Peace and Security programme, the Euro-Atlantic Disaster
Response Coordination Centre (EADRCC) and Partnership for
Peace Trust Fund projects. It is considering enhancing its
efforts in this area, with a focus on civil emergencies, energy
efficiency and renewable power, and on helping member and
partner countries address the impact of climate change in
vulnerable regions.
EU
 Climate change is one of the biggest challenges mankind
faces in the coming years. Rising temperatures, melting
glaciers and increasingly frequent droughts and flooding
are all evidence that climate change is really happening.
The risks for the whole planet and for future generations
are colossal and we need to take urgent action. For several
years now the European Union has been committed to
tackling climate change both internally and internationally
and has placed it high on the EU agenda.
 «Global warming and environmental degradation is
altering the face of our planet» Report on the
Implementation of the European Security Strategy
- Providing Security in a Changing World – 2008.
p.1
The “American perspective”
 USA perceived climate change as a threat to national security.
According to NIC while the United States "is better equipped
than most nations to deal with climate change," the impact on
other countries has the "potential to seriously affect U.S. national
security interests."
 Climate change was mentioned as a global challenge for security
and prosperity in page 8 of the National Security Strategy
Document «Climate change and pandemic disease threaten the
security of regions and the health and safety of the American
people».
 Natural disasters and growing competition for resources listed as
threats in the National Defense Strategy, p. 1 and in p. 5 «The
interaction of these changes with existing and future resource,
environmental, and climate pressures may generate new security
challenges. »
The “European Perspective”
(Germany and Denmark)
 For European countries, and especially for Germany and
Denmark environmental security is part of their political and
strategic culture. Since the 1990’s those two countries have
integrated the linkages of the environment with security and
foreign policy to their policies. After 2001 and the Millennium
Development Goals Germany and Denmark posed their attention
to climate change and international security.
 In 2007 two major reports, one for each country, branded the
analysis for Climate change as a security threat. Germany
through WBGU, German Advisory Council on Climate Change,
and Denmark through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the
IISD (International Institute for Sustainable Development). Both
the reports listed Climate Change as a threat to International
Security and addressing institutional responses.
The Southern Mediterranean 1
• The region is already one of the regions with high water scarcity
and severe drought.
• Population growth and the precipitation decline in the region,
the access to safe drinking water and to green water for
agriculture will further worsen. (distributional conflicts)
• Both in the MENA region and in the Nile river basin the
countries which will suffer the greatest water stress are generally
those which already lack the political and institutional
framework necessary for the adaptation of water and crisis
management systems.
• Overstretch existing conflict resolution mechanisms, ultimately
leading to destabilization and violence.
Southern Mediterranean 2
• Climate change will likely lead to a severe
reduction in available food and water resources,
while demands will likely continue to rise due to
population growth and economic development.
• This could lead to economic stagnation, social
dissatisfaction and grievances, and weakened
authorities.
• States may increasingly show uncooperative
behavior over the use of trans boundary water
resources.
Southern Mediterranean 3
• Ultimately, these changes may fuel extremism,
but also erode tolerance and impact civil
liberties as well as political rights if the situation
deteriorates.
• As the region is already suffering from tense
social, political and economic situations, climate
change may become a significant burden
overstretching the adaptation capacities of
institutions.
‘Lessons learned’ from global and
regional institutions
 In the face of such challenges, it is crucial that the International Community and
its institutions take effective action with regard to:
 Predicting Instability. This entails increased monitoring, risk assessments,
and early warning in an effort to discern dangers of impending and future
conflicts at an early stage.
 Preventing Conflict. This encompasses a range of policy instruments and
measures intended to avoid a situation where increasing pressures translate into
growing tensions and armed conflict.
 Managing Conflict. Of course, there are conflict situations (such as Darfur)
that are the product of environmental and associated pressures. These, and
possible future cases, need to be dealt with more effectively, in an effort to end
violence and counter instability.
 Recovery and Transition. Even after a conflict has been terminated, there are
continued challenges. There is a high risk that countries emerging from conflict
will fall back into war and violence. To work towards a sustainable peace, postconflict restoration and reconstruction will need to encompass environmental
and resource aspects.
‘Lessons learned’ from states
policies
 Intelligence Agencies should incorporate climate consequences into
its Intelligences Estimates.
 National Security Strategy should directly address the threat of
climate change to the state’s national security interests.
 The National Security Strategy and the National Defense Strategy
should include appropriate guidance to military planners to assess
risks to current and future missions of projected climate change,
guidance for updating defense plans based on these assessments, and
the capabilities needed to reduce future impacts.
 Evaluate preparedness for natural disasters from extreme weather
events, pandemic disease events, and other missions.
 Evaluate the capacity of the military and other institutions to
respond to the consequences of climate change. All levels of
government need to be involved in these efforts to provide capacity
and resiliency to respond and adapt.
Future Agenda
Awareness Raising it is necessary to keep the topic of climate
change and its impact on international security high on the
international agenda to ensure follow-up action.
Further Research: Knowledge regarding climate change
impacts is still very limited beyond the general global trends.
Further research and analysis on regional and national levels,
starting with pilot regions and countries, is necessary.
International System Development: The different
international frameworks working on issues related to climate
change – mitigation and adaptation, emission trading, food,
water, energy, etc. – need to be linked and integrated to allow
for a comprehensive approach.
The Mismatch
• Technology as well as political changes has
increased the possibility of effective
coordination; scientific advances continue to
expand our knowledge base; resources to
address security threats are partially
forthcoming. Thus whatever currently
jeopardizes human security, the problem lies in
the mismatch between security threats and
response mechanisms.
Conclusion: Stick to HS
• Empirical descriptions of security threats are essential to
gauging the size and depth of a threat, to assessing how
critical and pervasive it is or could be, and thus to mapping
the landscape of security threats.
• The deepening analysis of interdependent insecurities
provides a further reason to pursue HS, because individual
recognize that there are considerable benefits from addressing
interrelated variables jointly
• In parallel with threats collaborative possibilities “escalated”
positively, but there remains the need (and the possibility) to
establish new institutions or institutional measures to address
HS.