SIXTH FRAMEWORK PROGRAMME [6.1] [

Sustainable Energy Systems

]

NEEDS

New Energy Externalities Developments for Sustainability

Policy Advisory Group First meeting – Rome, 7 April 2006

Andrea Ricci – 7 April 2006

NEEDS: an Integrated Project of FP6

   

Duration: 48 months, starting September 2004 66 partners (15% are SMEs), representing Universities, Research Institutions, Industry and NGOs from 27 Countries (19 EU members, 3 MED, 5 ‘Other’) Leading partners:



ISIS (IT) - Coordinator



DLR (DE)



IER Stuttgart (DE)



OME (FR)



Uni Prague (CZ)



CNR-IMAA (IT)



PSI (CH)



ECO (NO) 1118 person.months

Andrea Ricci – 7 April 2006

Overall objective

To evaluate the full costs and benefits (i.e. direct + external) of energy policies and of future energy systems, both at the level of individual countries and for the enlarged EU as a whole

Andrea Ricci – 7 April 2006

Policy relevance of external cost accounting

• Supply side policies (infrastructure, other products and services) – Extended accounting framework for CBA – Comparison between alternative investment options

(differential values)

• Demand side policies (regulation, pricing and taxation) – Mitigation/abatement – Internalisation (absolute values) Andrea Ricci – 7 April 2006

Examples of input to EU policies

• Directive on non-hazardous waste • Large Combustion Plant Directive • EU strategy to combat acidification • National Air Quality Strategy • Emission Ceilings Directive • Infrastructure charging (Eurovignette) • Etc.

Andrea Ricci – 7 April 2006

Objectives and main focus

   Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of energy technologies  analysis of new energy technologies options for which the current LCA knowledge is insufficient Monetary valuation of externalities associated to energy production, transport, conversion and use, targeting major innovation in terms of:    methods impacts so far insufficiently addressed the availability and reliability of quantitative evidence Development of a consistent and robust analytical platform allowing to integrate the full range of information and data on LCA and external costs into a Pan-European modelling framework Andrea Ricci – 7 April 2006

Objectives and main focus (2)

 Acceptability and stakeholders perspective   To identify the terms and conditions for an effective formulation and implementation of long term strategies based on the internalisation of external costs To examine the robustness of the research results under various stakeholder perspectives  Transferability and generalisation  to develop a simple way of calculating, transferring and present the uncertainty of default values for average/aggregate external costs  Integration  To develop a structured “protocol” to facilitate the widespread use of the integrated analysis framework Andrea Ricci – 7 April 2006

Andrea Ricci – 7 April 2006

LCA: main targeted innovation

Key challenge: to provide sound life cycle inventory data (as a basis for external cost assessment) for technologies in the far future (2030 – 2050) Focus on electricity generation technologies:

• advanced fossil fuels • hydrogen technologies • fuel cells • offshore wind • photovoltaic • concentrating solar thermal power plant • biomass • advanced nuclear • wave energy • background processes Andrea Ricci – 7 April 2006

Valuation of external costs: main targeted innovation

  Improvement of atmospheric modelling at hemispheric, European, local scale Soil and water pathways (food, toxic substances)   Exposure-response-relationships for human health Assessment of biodiversity changes  Assessment of climate change  Valuation of mortality and morbidity Andrea Ricci – 7 April 2006

Modelling: main targeted innovation

   To develop an energy-environmental model, technology oriented and based on economic equilibrium, which allows for both a worldwide perspective and a disaggregation for Europe and within the Member States and Accession Countries To incorporate the results from LCA and ExternE (the most important emissions, materials and damage functions), including them in their long term development To compare scenarios that simulate various policy approaches (setting thresholds for CO2 emission, renewables penetration, etc.) using the key base data received form the other streams to calculate equilibrium quantities and prices.

Andrea Ricci – 7 April 2006

Acceptability and stakeholders perspective: main targeted innovation

Ultimate objective: broadening the basis for decision support beyond the assessment of external costs.

through   Experimenting complementary approaches allowing direct involvement of stakeholders Testing the acceptability of results based on external cost assessment by stakeholders Andrea Ricci – 7 April 2006

Acceptability and stakeholders perspective: specific objectives

• • • • • To explore to what extent the stakeholders accept the assessed external costs.

To address and evaluate sustainability of candidate technologies (and/or technology mixes) under economic, environmental and social criteria.

To investigate the sensitivity of results of sustainability assessment to specific patterns in stakeholder preferences.

To examine possible differences in the ranking of options established by employing alternative approaches to the evaluation.

To identify most robust technological options and prioritised developments for the promising but less robust ones.

Andrea Ricci – 7 April 2006

Acceptability and stakeholders perspective: approach

    Establishment of sustainability criteria and indicators 

survey



social criteria (underdeveloped)

Quantification of indicators Establishment of technology roadmap  MCDA approach  Evaluations and analysis integration Stakeholder perspectives  acceptability of monetary valuation and role in policy making process  surveys Andrea Ricci – 7 April 2006

Integration into policy and decision making

 Long term perspective • Future technologies Andrea Ricci – 7 April 2006

Integration into policy and decision making

 Long term perspective • Future technologies • Dynamic LCA (time- and scenario-dependent) Andrea Ricci – 7 April 2006

LCA of individual technologies

RS1a

External costs per unit emission

RS1b 2000 Scena A Scen B 2000 Scena A Scen B Scen C Scen B Scen C 2000 2000 NOx 2025 2050 2000 NOx 2025 2050 2000 ….

2025 2000 ….

2025 Scena A Scen B 2000 Scena A Scen B Scen C 2050 Scen B 2000 Scena A Scen B Scen C Scen B Scen C Scen B Scen C

Time dependency

France 2000 2000 Scena A Scen B 2000 Scena A Scen B Scen C 2025 2050 Scena A Germany 2000 2025 2000 Scena A Scen B 2000 Scena A Scen B Scen C 2025 2025 2050 2000 Scena A 2000 Scena A Scen B 2000 Scena A Scen B Scen C Scen B Scen C Scen B Scen C Scen B Scen C 2025 2025 2025 2025 2050 2050 2050 2050 (Excel format) (Excel format)

Scenario dependency

technology specific external costs per unit electricity generation

€/kWh Andrea Ricci – 7 April 2006

Stakeholders involvement in NEEDS

From the 1° Annual Review of NEEDS:

“The Consortium should:

• Identify key users of the project products and engage

with them

• Define scenarios and a precise policy case, based on

preoccupations of the policy community […]

• […] organise engagement and reflection with the policy

community in the European institutions and in Members States”

Andrea Ricci – 7 April 2006

Stakeholders involvement in NEEDS

 Community of users • Energy demand (Industry, Households) • Energy supply (Producers, Distributors) • NGOs/Associations (National, European) • Decision makers (European, national, regional) • Researchers/consultants • Authorities • Energy & Environmental Agencies Andrea Ricci – 7 April 2006

Stakeholders involvement in NEEDS

     The NEEDS “fora” The Policy Advisory Group The NEEDS policy workshops Stakeholders surveys (Stream 2b: acceptability and stakeholders perspective) Other dissemination, communication and liaison instruments • Website • Newsletters • Direct communication Andrea Ricci – 7 April 2006

Calendar of main events

       First FORUM (Brussels, 2005)- Setting the scene First Policy Workshop (Rome, April 2006): discussion and validation of scenarios Second Policy Workshop (Ljubljana, December 2006/January 2007): feedback from the stakeholders surveys on acceptability and impacts of internalisation Second FORUM (Krakow, June 2007): security of energy supply Third FORUM (Cairo, November 2007): energy externalities in the Mediterranean Countries Third Policy Workshop (Zurich t.b.c., March 2008) Fourth FORUM (Brussels, june 2008): Final NEEDS conference Andrea Ricci – 7 April 2006