Transcript Document

Global macro-economic, energy and
environmental scenarios
Brian D. Fath
DYN, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria
Biology Department, Towson University
Towson, Maryland, USA
Outline
• Overview of IIASA Activity
• Ecosystem Indicators as guide
for environmental management
• Proposed CEEH Research
IIASA: Science for Global Insight
Leen Hordijk
Director
International Institute for Applied Systems
Analysis
Laxenburg, Austria
Location of IIASA
ViennaSchwechat
Airport
IIASA Premises
Housed in Schloss Laxenburg, a renovated 18th century
Habsburg palace, 30 minutes south of Vienna, Austria
History
•
1967 initiative of US Pres. Johnson and Soviet PM Kosygin
•
Create research center as “neutral bridge between east & west”
•
Original Charter signed in 1972 by 12 countries
•
1994 Ministerial Conference: renewed mandate as independent,
scientific institution
•
In addition to East–West, also North–South
Identity
A renowned research institute that is

International

Interdisciplinary (40% social science)

Independent

Sponsored by National Member Organizations
from 19 countries

International scientific staff (~184 persons, 85
person years from 27 nations)
19 Members in:
•
Austria
•
Netherlands
•
China
•
Norway
•
Czech Republic
•
Pakistan (NEW)
•
Egypt
•
Poland
•
Estonia
•
Russian Federation
•
Finland
•
South Africa (NEW)
•
Germany
•
Sweden
•
Hungary
•
Ukraine
•
India (NEW)
•
United States of America
•
Japan
Research themes and programs 2006-2010
ENERGY and TECHONOLOGY
Dynamic Systems
Energy
Transitions to New Technologies
ENVIRONMENT and NATURAL RESOURCES
Atmospheric Pollution and Economic Development
Land-Use Change and Agriculture
Evolution and Ecology
Forestry
Research themes and programs 2006-2010
POPULATION and SOCIETY
Population and Climate Change
World Population
Processes of International Negotiation
Risk and Vulnerability
SPECIAL PROJECTS
Health and Global Change
Integrated Modeling Environment
Greenhouse Gas Initiative
Water
Young Scientists Summer Program (YSSP)
 Advanced
students
 June – August
 Work with IIASA
programs
 Funded by NMO &
other sources
 Publication
 January application deadline
DYNAMIC SYSTEMS PROGRAM
Strategic goals and objectives
I. Methodological Development
 To develop analytic and numerical methods for
estimation and control of large-scale dynamic systems
II.Application
 To apply these methods to particular systems in IIASA’s
research on global change:
•
•
•
•
Economic
Technology
Energy
Environment
DYNAMIC SYSTEMS PROGRAM
DYN Program Matrix
Methodology
Development
Analyses of
Technology
and Energy
Development
Analyses of
Environmental
Dynamics
Dynamical
Systems
Control
Theory
Game
Theory
Robust
Stabilization
Stochastic
Optimization
Identification
and
Observation
Numerical
Analyses
Network
Theory
Ecosystem Indicators as guide for
Environmental Management
1) Open systems: input-output models
Ecological and Human systems
2) Network Analysis: understanding connectivity
and indirect effects
3) Ecosystem Growth and Development
Open systems …connect to their
environment through both inputs and outputs
Environment
Source
System
Input-State-Output
Sink
Open Systems …build and maintain order
and organization by taking in high quality
energy, using it, and passing degraded energy
outside of the system.
High quality
Energy Input
System
(human or
natural)
Low quality
Energy output (waste heat)
Ecological and human systems are open
Input
Output
System
Sustainability is dependent on the energymatter flows that support it AND having a sink
for the waste.
Simplified Ecosystem
Simplified Human System
Economy as a closed system
A perpetual motion machine
Economy as an open system
Environment
energy
raw materials
waste heat
material waste
Input Sustainability Challenges
Limited Supply?
Input ?
Output
System
Energy Estimation Using Peak Production
(M.K. Hubbert)
North Sea Oil and Gas Production
Global Oil and Gas
Production
Output Sustainability Challenges
Limited Sink?
Input
Output ?
System
Environmental Impacts
of Fossil Fuel Use
Limited
Sink
for
output
Acid mine drainage
Photochemical smog
Climate Change
Oil spills
Sustainability Challenges
System Dynamics ?
Input
Output
System ?
Input
Output
Ecosystem ?
Environment
Ecosystems have evolved and
developed within these input-output
environmental constraints.
Thermodynamically, what patterns of
organization arise in ecosystems?
Ecosystem Development Trends (Odum 1969)
Ecosystem Attribute
Developmental
Stage
Mature
Stage
Community energetics
Food chains
Gross production/community respiration (P/R ratio)
Biomass supported/unit energy flow (B/E ratio)
Production/ Biomass (P/B ratio)
linear
>1
low
high
weblike
~1
high
low
Nutrients
Mineral cycles
Nutrient exchange rate
open
rapid
closed
slow
Overall homeostasis
Internal symbiosis
Entropy
Information
undeveloped
high
low
developed
low
high
Ecosystem Growth and Development
0. Boundary Growth: Energy enters the
system.
I. Structural Growth: Increase in
biomass.
II. Network Growth: Development of
system connectivity.
III. Information Growth: Development
of system behavior from
exploitative patterns to more
efficient ones.
Ecological Goal Functions
1 Minimize specific entropy production (Prigogine 1947).
Decrease in the respiration to biomass ratio.
2 Maximize energy throughflow (Odum 1983).
Increase in the internal energy flow.
3 Maximize exergy degradation (Kay 1984). As the amount of
exergy captured increases, so does the amount dissipated.
4 Maximize exergy storage (Jørgensen & Mejer 1977). Exergy
storage (biomass) and information increase due to shift to more
complex species composition.
5 Maximize retention time (Cheslak & Lamarra 1981). Biological
components develop mechanisms to increase time lags to
maintain the energy stores longer.
Dynamic orientor, response to disturbance
B
A
t
s
Ecosystem
orientor
E
D
C
Time
G
H
I
J
K
F
Conservation – mature stage
Exergy
stored
Release –
creative
destruction
Reorganization
Exploitation – pioneer stage
Connectedness
Long-term dynamics
System gets “reset”
Developmental
potential
Connectedness
Real long-term, after series of disturbances
Exergy
stored
Connectedness
Human modifications to ecosphere
• Current human society encourages high
Production/Biomass (P/B) – which is indicative of
immature ecosystems such as agriculture, aquaculture,
forestry.
• Nature’s strategy is the reverse, a high B/P– maximize
structure for a given amount of productivity.
• This conflict of growth versus development is at the core
of our environmental management issues today.
Proposals for IIASA-CEEH collaboration
I. Air Pollution Mortality and Long-run growth
Ulla Lehmijoki (Helsinki University) and Elena Rovenskaya (IIASA/DYN)
II. Analysis of Ecological Indicators and Network
Methodologies
Søren Nielsen (Copenhagen University) and Brian Fath (IIASA/DYN)
Network Perspective
• actors/objects and their actions are viewed as interdependent rather
than independent, autonomous units
• linkages between actors/objects are channels for transfer or flow of
resources (material or nonmaterial)
•the network structural environment provides opportunities for or
constraints on individual action
• network structure gives lasting patterns of relations (ecological,
social, economic, political, and so forth) among actors/objects
Wasserman and Faust 1994.
Simplified fisheries model
competition
Seals
Humans
Cod
Everything
else
From Yodzis, P, 1998, J. Animal Ecology, 635-658.
More realistic fisheries model
Humans
A greater
probability for
decrease in total
fisheries yield after
reduction in seal
biomass.
Single species
management gave
poorest results.
Yodzis, P, 1998, J. Animal
Ecology, 635-658.
Thank you for your Attention!