Transcript Food: The Weak Link - Earth Policy Institute

Select supporting data for Lester R. Brown’s
Full Planet, Empty Plates:
The New Geopolitics of
Food Scarcity
Chapter 1
Food: The Weak Link
Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand
World Monthly Food Price Index,
January 1990 - August 2012
250
Earth Policy Institute - www.earth-policy.org
2002-2004 = 100
200
150
100
50
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Source: FAO
Photo Credit: USDA / Scott Bauer
World Corn, Wheat, and Rice Production, 1960-2011
1 000
Corn
800
700
Million Tons
Wheat
600
500
Rice
400
300
200
Earth Policy Institute - www.earth-policy.org
900
100
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Source: USDA
Photo Credit: USDA / Scott Bauer
World Grain Stocks as Days of Consumption, 1960-2011
140
Earth Policy Institute - www.earth-policy.org
120
Days
100
80
60
40
20
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Source: USDA
Photo Credit: USDA / Scott Bauer
Chapter 2
The Ecology of Population Growth
Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand
World Population, 1950-2010, with Projections to 2050
12
11
Earth Policy Institute - www.earth-policy.org
10
9
Billion
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1950
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
Source: UNPop
Photo Credit: USDA / Scott Bauer
Humanity's Ecological Footprint, 1961-2007
2,0
1,8
1,6
Point of Overshoot*
1,2
1,0
0,8
0,6
* In 1976, for the first time, the total demands placed on
nature by the world economy reached the equivalent of
what the Earth can sustainably provide in a year. As of
2007, we are using the equivalent of 1.5 Earths—
exceeding what nature can provide by half.
0,4
0,2
0,0
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Earth Policy Institute - www.earth-policy.org
Number of Earths
1,4
2010
Source: Global Footprint Network
Photo Credit: USDA / Scott Bauer
Female Secondary Education and Total Fertility Rates,
Latest Year
8
Total Fertility Rate
6
5
4
3
2
1
R² = 0,6683
Earth Policy Institute - www.earth-policy.org
7
0
0
20
40
60
80
100
Percent of Girls Enrolled in Secondary School
Source: EPI from UIS
Photo Credit: USDA / Scott Bauer
Chapter 3
Moving Up the Food Chain
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World Meat Production by Type, 1950-2010
120
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Pork
100
Poultry
Million Tons
80
Beef
60
40
20
Mutton
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Source: Worldwatch, FAO
Photo Credit: USDA / Scott Bauer
World Wild Fish Catch and Farmed Fish Production,
1950-2010
100
90
Earth Policy Institute - www.earth-policy.org
Wild Catch
80
Million Tons
70
60
50
Farmed Fish
40
30
20
10
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Source: FAO
Photo Credit: USDA / Scott Bauer
Meat Consumption in China and the United States,
1960-2012
80
China
60
Million Tons
50
40
United
States
30
20
10
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Earth Policy Institute - www.earth-policy.org
70
2020
Source: USDA
Photo Credit: USDA / Scott Bauer
Milk Production in India and the United States, 1961-2010
140
120
Million Tons
100
80
United States
60
40
20
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Earth Policy Institute - www.earth-policy.org
India
2010
Source: FAO
Photo Credit: USDA / Scott Bauer
Chapter 4
Food or Fuel?
Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Vasata Studio
World Fuel Ethanol Production, 1975-2012
25 000
15 000
10 000
5 000
Note: 2012 is a projection.
0
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Earth Policy Institute - www.earth-policy.org
Million Gallons
20 000
2015
Source: F.O. Licht
Photo Credit: USDA / Scott Bauer
U.S. Corn Use for Feedgrain, Fuel Ethanol, and Exports,
1980-2011
180
Feedgrain
140
Million Tons
120
100
Fuel Ethanol
80
60
40
Exports
Earth Policy Institute - www.earth-policy.org
160
20
0
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Source: USDA
Photo Credit: USDA / Scott Bauer
U.S. Motor Gasoline Consumption, 1950-2012
160
140
100
80
60
40
20
Note: 2012 is a projection.
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Earth Policy Institute - www.earth-policy.org
Billion Gallons
120
2010
Source: DOE
Photo Credit: USDA / Scott Bauer
Chapter 5
Eroding Soils Darkening Our Future
Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand
Dust Events in South Korea, 1970-2011
140
Earth Policy Institute - www.earth-policy.org
118
120
100
77
Days
80
60
39
40
23
20
0
1970-1979
1980-1989
1990-1999
2000-2011
Source: KMA; KME
Photo Credit: USDA / Scott Bauer
Grazing Livestock in Nigeria, 1961-2010
60
Goats
Million Head
40
Sheep
30
20
Cattle
10
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Earth Policy Institute - www.earth-policy.org
50
2010
Source: FAO
Photo Credit: USDA / Scott Bauer
Livestock and Human Populations in Pakistan, 1961-2010
200
180
Humans
140
Livestock
Millions
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Earth Policy Institute - www.earth-policy.org
160
2010
Source: FAO; UNPop
Photo Credit: USDA / Scott Bauer
Chapter 6
Peak Water and Food Scarcity
Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand
Wheat Production and Consumption
in Saudi Arabia, 1960-2011
4 500
4 000
Consumption
Thousand Tons
3 000
2 500
2 000
1 500
1 000
Production
500
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Earth Policy Institute - www.earth-policy.org
3 500
2010
Source: USDA
Photo Credit: USDA / Scott Bauer
Grain Production and Consumption in the
Arab Middle East and Israel, 1961-2011
45
Consumption
35
Million Tons
30
25
20
15
Production
10
5
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Earth Policy Institute - www.earth-policy.org
40
2010
Source: EPI from USDA
Photo Credit: USDA / Scott Bauer
World Irrigated Area, 1961-2009
350
Earth Policy Institute - www.earth-policy.org
300
Million Hectares
250
200
150
100
50
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Source: FAO
Photo Credit: USDA / Scott Bauer
World Irrigated Area Per Thousand People, 1961-2009
53
51
Earth Policy Institute - www.earth-policy.org
49
Hectares
47
45
43
41
39
37
35
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Source: FAO; UNPop
Photo Credit: USDA / Scott Bauer
Chapter 7
Grain Yields Starting to Plateau
Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / ollo
Wheat Yields in France, Germany, and the
United Kingdom, 1961-2011
9
7
Tons Per Hectare
6
5
4
France
Germany
3
United Kingdom
2
Earth Policy Institute - www.earth-policy.org
8
1
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Source: FAO, USDA
Photo Credit: USDA / Scott Bauer
Rice Yields in China and Japan, 1960-2011
Earth Policy Institute - www.earth-policy.org
6
5
Japan
Tons Per Hectare
4
3
China
2
1
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Source: USDA
Photo Credit: USDA / Scott Bauer
Fertilizer Consumption in Top Five Countries, 1961-2011
60
China
Million Tons
40
India
30
United
States
20
Brazil
10
Indonesia
0
1961
1971
1981
1991
2001
2011
Earth Policy Institute - www.earth-policy.org
50
2021
Source: IFA
Photo Credit: USDA / Scott Bauer
Chapter 8
Rising Temperatures, Rising Food Prices
Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / jansmarc
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration, 1000-2011
Earth Policy Institute - www.earth-policy.org
390
Parts Per Million by Volume
370
350
330
310
290
270
250
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
Source: EPI from Worldwatch; NOAA/ESRL
Photo Credit: USDA / Scott Bauer
Average Global Temperature, 1880-2011
14,7
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14,5
Degrees Celsius
14,3
14,1
13,9
13,7
13,5
13,3
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
Source: NASA GISS
Photo Credit: USDA / Scott Bauer
Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Fossil Fuel
Burning by Fuel Type, 1900-2011
4 500
Million Tons of Carbon
3 500
3 000
Oil
2 500
2 000
1 500
Natural Gas
1 000
Earth Policy Institute - www.earthpolicy.org
Coal
4 000
500
0
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
Source: EPI from CDIAC; BP
Photo Credit: USDA / Scott Bauer
Chapter 9
China and the Soybean Challenge
Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand
World Soybean Production, 1950-2011
300
Earth Policy Institute - www.earth-policy.org
250
Million Tons
200
150
100
50
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Source: Worldwatch, USDA
Photo Credit: USDA / Scott Bauer
Soybean Production, Consumption, and Imports in China,
1964-2011
70
Consumption
Million Tons
60
50
40
30
Imports
20
10
0
1964
Earth Policy Institute - www.earth-policy.org
80
Production
1974
1984
1994
2004
Source: USDA
Photo Credit: USDA / Scott Bauer
Net Imports of Grain in China, 1960-2011
20
Earth Policy Institute - www.earth-policy.org
15
10
Million Tons
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Source: EPI from USDA
Photo Credit: USDA / Scott Bauer
Area Harvested for Wheat, Corn, and Soybeans in the
Western Hemisphere, 1960-2011
90
Soybeans
Million Hectares
70
Corn
60
50
Wheat
40
30
20
Earth Policy Institute - www.earth-policy.org
80
10
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Source: USDA
Photo Credit: USDA / Scott Bauer
Chapter 10
The Global Land Rush
Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / susoy
Large-scale Land Acquisition Area by
Target Region, October 2008 – August 2009
Latin America and
the Caribbean,
5.7%
Middle East and
North Africa, 1.9%
Europe and
Central Asia, 7.6%
Southeast Asia,
14.7%
Sub-Saharan
Africa, 70.1%
Total Area: 56.6 million hectares in 203 projects
Source: GRAIN data compiled by Deininger and Byerlee (2011)
Photo Credit: USDA / Scott Bauer
Large-scale Land Acquisitions by Project Type,
October 2008 – August 2009
Biofuel Crops
21%
Food Crops
37%
Industrial, Cash
Crops
21%
Conservation
Reserves, Game
Farms, Livestock,
Plantation Forestry
21%
Total Projects: 405
Source: GRAIN data compiled by Deininger and Byerlee (2011)
Photo Credit: USDA / Scott Bauer
Chapter 11
Can We Prevent a Food Breakdown?
Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand
Plan B Carbon Dioxide Emissions Reduction Goals for 2020
Earth Policy Institute - www.earth-policy.org
(Million Tons of Carbon)
Remaining net
emissions
Replacing fossil
fuels with
renewables for
electricity and heat
1,680
Managing soils to
sequester carbon
3,210
600
Planting trees to
sequester carbon
860
1,500
Ending net
deforestation
1,400
Restructuring the
transport system
Reducing coal and
oil use in industry
100
Baseline Emissions (2006) = 9,350 Million Tons of Carbon
Source: EPI
Photo Credit: USDA / Scott Bauer
To learn more about the global food
situation…
read Full Planet, Empty
Plates: The New Geopolitics
of Food Scarcity by
Lester R. Brown. The book
and supporting data sets
are available at
www.earth-policy.org