Transcript Slide 1

Growing Food Insecurity
Food-to-Fuel and Other Challenges
Janet Larsen, Director of Research
May 2008
Corn Futures Prices, January 1999
Through April 2008
Source: CBOT, futures.tradingcharts.com
Wheat Futures Prices, January 1999
Through April 2008
Source: CBOT, futures.tradingcharts.com
Soybean Futures Prices, January 1999
Through April 2008
Source: CBOT, futures.tradingcharts.com
Rice Prices, 1985 – 2008
(Monthly 100% Grade B)
1000
Apr 08
900
Dollars per Ton
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Aug-85 Apr-88
Jan-91
Oct-93
Jul-96
Apr-99
Source: USDA ERS
Jan-02 Sep-04 Jun-07 Mar-10
Food Price Unrest Around the World
September 2007 – May 2008
Compiled by Earth Policy Institute
Top Grain Exporters
Quantity (million tons)
Top Corn Exporters
Quantity (million tons)
United States
106.1
United States
62.0
Argentina
28.1
Argentina
15.0
Canada
18.6
Brazil
9.0
E.U.
14.3
Paraguay
1.6
Russia
13.1
Ukraine
1.2
Australia
10.6
China
1.0
Thailand
9.3
South Africa
0.8
Kazakhstan
9.0
India
0.5
Brazil
8.7
Canada
0.4
Vietnam
5.0
E.U.
0.3
Top Wheat Exporters
Quantity (million tons)
Top Rice Exporters
Quantity (million tons)
United States
32.5
Thailand
9.0
Canada
14.5
Vietnam
5.0
Russia
12.0
United States
3.5
Argentina
11.0
India
3.4
E.U.
9.0
Pakistan
2.9
Australia
8.0
China
1.3
Kazakhstan
8.0
Egypt
1.1
Ukraine
5.2
Uruguay
0.8
China
2.5
Argentina
0.5
Turkey
1.5
Cambodia
0.5
Source: EPI, USDA, FT
Red circles indicate export restrictions in place as of May 2008
Top Ten Grain Importers: Share of Consumption
from Imports
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Taiwan
Yemen
Cuba
Japan
M alaysia
South
Korea
Source: USDA
Saudi
Arabia
Colombia
Algeria
Tunisia
World Grainland Area
750
Million Hectares
700
650
600
550
500
1950
1960
1970
1980
Source: USDA
1990
2000
2010
World Grainland Area Per Person
0.25
Hectares
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
1950
1960
1970
1980
Source: USDA, UN
1990
2000
2010
World Irrigated Area
350
Million Hectares
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
Source: FAO, Worldwatch
1990
2000
2010
World Irrigated Area Per Person
500
Square Meters
400
300
200
100
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
Source: FAO, Worldwatch, UN
2000
2010
Average Annual Increase (percent)
World Grain Yield Annual Increase by Decade
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1950-1960
1960-1970
1970-1980
1980-1990
Source: USDA, Worldwatch
1990-2000
2000-2007
World Grain Balance
2,500
Million Tons
2,000
1,500
1,000
Production
Consumption
500
0
1960
1970
1980
Source: USDA
1990
2000
2010
World Grain Carryover Stocks
700
600
Million Tons
500
400
300
200
100
0
1960
1970
1980
Source: USDA
1990
2000
2010
World Grain Carryover Stocks as Days of
Consumption
140
120
Days
100
80
60
40
20
0
1960
1970
1980
Source: USDA
1990
2000
2010
U.S. Grain Use for Fuel Ethanol
120
Million Tons
100
80
60
40
20
0
1975
1980
1985
Source: EPI, USDA, RFA
1990
1995
2000
2005
2008 ethanol use is a projection by Earth Policy Institute
2010
U.S. Grain Production and Use for Ethanol
450
400
Grain Production
Grain for Ethanol
Million Tons
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 *
Source: EPI, USDA, RFA
* 2008 ethanol use is a projection by Earth Policy Institute
Gasoline and Ethanol in the United States
Ethanol supplied less
than 4% of gasoline
consumption in 2007…
… but used 20% of
the U.S. grain harvest.
Source: EPI, USDA, EIA
For more information:
Lester R. Brown, Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization (New York:
W.W. Norton & Company, 2008), www.earthpolicy.org.
C. Ford Runge and Benjamin Senauer, “How Biofuels Could Starve the Poor,”
Foreign Affairs, May/June 2007.
Financial Times, The Global Food Crisis, interactive map, www.ft.com.
The Fund for Peace and Foreign Policy, “The Failed States Index 2007,”
Foreign Policy, July/August 2007.
U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, Crop Prospects and Food
Situation, no. 2, April 2008.
Robert B. Zoellick, President of the World Bank Group, “A Challenge of
Economic Statecraft,” Speech at the Center for Global Development
(Washington, DC: 2 April 2008).
References
Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), Market Recap Reports, at www.cbot.com.
Lester R. Brown, “World Facing Huge New Challenge on Food Front,” Plan B
Update, 16 April 2008, with additional information at www.earthpolicy.org.
Financial Times (FT), “The Rising Cost of Food,” www.ft.com/foodprices,
updated 5 May 2008.
Renewable Fuel Association (RFA), “Ethanol Biorefinery Locations,” at
www.ethanolrfa.org/industry/locations.
U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), FAOSTAT, electronic
database at faostat.fao.org.
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Production Supply and
Distribution, electronic database at www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline.
USDA Economic Research Service (ERS), Rice Yearbook 2007 (Washington,
DC: November 2007).
USDA, Feedgrains Database, electronic database at
www.ers.usda.gov/Data/FeedGrains.
U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration (EIA),
Biofuels in the U.S. Transportation Sector, at
www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/analysispaper/biomass.html.
www.earthpolicy.org