Transcript Slide 1

The independence and
determinants of outcomes: The
relevance for Policy
Bilal Nasim, Researcher CMPO
9th February 2010
DCSF 2010 Research Conference
We still lag behind other countries in terms of labour productivity…
International comparisons of output per
hour worked (UK=100)
Productivity is the main
determinant of national
living standards. It refers to
how well an economy uses
the resources it has.
130
125
France
USA
120
Germany
115
G7 exc. UK
110
105
Italy
UK
100
The UK has relatively poor
productivity compared to
other major economies,
although we have made
progress in recent years.
95
Canada
90
Japan
85
80
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Up to one fifth of the UK's productivity gap with
France and Germany is a result of the lack of skills of
workers in the UK.
ONS: International Comparisons of Productivity
OMahoney and de Boer (2002) Britain’s Relative Productivity Performance: Updates to 1999
2
…income inequality is at its highest since records began …
Income inequality rose
significantly over the past 30
years, particularly during the
1980s
0.400
0.350
•
•
Levels of inequality have
stabilised since the late 1990s,
though have started to tick
upwards in the past few years
Inequality is now statistically
significantly higher than the level
of inequality observed in 1997
Inequality in the UK is above the
OECD average, but below that
of the USA and Mexico
0.300
0.250
Gini
•
The higher the gini coefficient
the greater the income
inequality
0.200
0.150
0.100
0.050
0.000
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993-94
1994-95
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
•
Gini coefficient, UK 1970-2008
Sources: Households Below Average income / IFS (2009) Poverty and inequality in the UK 2009
3
…social mobility remains an issue…
Income mobility fell between cohorts born in 1958
and 1970 (and was high by international standards)…
Relationship between family income and
GCSE attainment
31%
1958 Cohort
Percentage of
sons in highest
income quartile
whose parents
are also in
highest quartile
35%
1958 Cohort
38%
1970 Cohort
42%
1 stadard deviation change
income wrt to GCSE scores
Percentage of
sons in lowest
income quartile
whose parents
are also in
lowest quartile
…but recent evidence suggests this trend
may be reversing
1970 Cohort
Sources: Blanden, Gregg and Machin (2005), Intergenerational Mobility in Europe and North America, Sutton Trust, LSE
Gregg and Macmillan (2008) Intergenerational Mobility and Education in the Next Generation, mimeo
4
…and there are concerns about children’s overall well-being…
Comparative policy-focused child wellbeing in 30 OECD countries
Material wellbeing
Housing and
environment
Educational
well-being
Health and
safety
Risky
behaviours
Quality of
school life
0
4th
-5
12th
15th
22nd
20th
28th
rank
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
No. of countries
in each ranking
Source: OECD (2009) Doing Better for Children
5
Progress is being made in a number of areas…
Enjoy
and
Achieve
Attainment on most measures continues to rise…
…and fewer schools are missing floor targets
Achieve
Economic
Well-being
The recession is helping to push up participation in education and training
Achieve
Economic
Well-being
Stay Safe /
Economic
Well-being
Be
Healthy
Be
Healthy /
Stay
Safe
Be
Healthy
Make a
positive
contribution
Attainment at age 19 is improving, whilst at the same time the FSM gap is slightly narrowing
Fewer looked after children are moved frequently, and more are in stable placements…
…and more care-leavers are having positive outcomes – both in terms of
accommodation and employment, education or training
Breastfeeding is on a general upward trend
Infant mortality continues to fall and the rate of hospital admissions has fallen from its 200607 peak
Substance misuse and abuse amongst young people is on a general downward trend
The number of 1st time entrants to the criminal justice system has turned a corner…
…and rates of reoffending are down
6
…but there are significant challenges in other areas:
Enjoy and
achieve
Achieve
Economic
Well-being
Enjoy and
achieve
Attainment gaps by FSM and SEN continue to persist,
though there are signs of progress
Numbers of young people NEET are rising
…and whilst we’re making improvements in the attainment
of looked after children, the 2011 targets will be challenging
Achieve
Economic
Well-being
We are unlikely to meet our 2010 Child Poverty target
Be
Healthy
Reductions in conception rates of teenage girls since 1998
have only been gradual
7
Outline
Introduction: Scene-setting
A. The interdependence and determinants of
outcomes of childhood
B. The role of Schools and Pre-schools
C. Inter- and Intra-generational associations
8
The ‘outcomes’ of childhood are not mutually exclusive goods. The latest
academic research has enabled us to understand these links better
Determinants of
outcomes
Individual
ECM Outcomes
?
Family
Institutional
?
Achieve
economic
well-being
? ?
?
?
?
Stay Safe
?
Social
Early outcomes
?
Enjoy and
Achieve
Later outcomes
?
?
? ?
Be healthy
?
Adult outcomes
?
Intergenerational
impacts
?
Make a
positive
contribution
9
A number of ECM outcomes are associated with achievement, though
prior attainment still dominates
Self-rated health and extracurricular
activities are positively and
significantly associated with
academic achievement.
There is a very strong, significant –
and causal – negative relationship
between previous unauthorised
absence levels and academic
achievement.
Determinants of achievement at
age 16
Health
Extra-curricular
activities
Bullied
Age 14 School
Enjoyment
Be healthy
Achieve
Stay Safe
(bullying)
Truancy
Key Stage 2
Make a
positive
contribution
Achieve
economic
well-being
Enjoy and
achieve
(attendance)
Source: Vignoles and Meschi, Forthcoming, “The determinants of non-cognitive and cognitive schooling outcomes”.
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
effect size (% of standard deviation)
10
60%
Happy children tend to be more successful, enjoy school and participate
more
Make a
positive
contribution
Pupils with high life satisfaction report
significantly more positive school experiences,
a greater frequency of extracurricular activities
participation and higher academic
achievement…
Enjoy
…in contrast, being a victim of bullying is
significantly related to worse levels of wellbeing, behaviour and academic achievement,
though the reverse is not true
Source: Gilman and Huebner, 2006, “Characteristics of adolescents who report very high life satisfaction”
Gutman and Feinstein, 2008, “Children’s Well-Being in Primary School: Pupil and School Effects”
Achieve
Stay Safe
(bullying)
11
Children’s health is a key determinant of school enjoyment…
Determinants of school enjoyment at age 16
Bullied children at 14 are significantly less
likely to enjoy school at 16 while the
opposite is seen to be true for pupils with
higher self-rated health.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, truanting
behaviour is negatively associated with
school enjoyment, though causality is
likely to run in both directions
Health
Extra-curricular
activities
Bullied
Age 14 School
Enjoyment
Truancy
Stay Safe
(bullying)
Key Stage 2
Enjoy
Enjoy and
achieve
(attendance)
-40% -20%
0%
20% 40%
60% 80% 100% 120% 140%
% standard deviation effect
Be healthy
Source: Vignoles and Meschi, forthcoming, “The determinants of non-cognitive and cognitive schooling outcomes”.
12
…and is strongly associated with the likelihood of being bullied, though
the direction of causation is yet to be established…
Pupils experiencing bullying at 14 are more likely
to experience a greater degree of bullying at 16.
Stay Safe
(bullying)
Pupils reporting health problems at 14 are
significantly more likely to report being bullied at
16...
…but academic achievement (Key Stage 2) and
attitude toward school (age 14) appear to be not
associated with being bullied at 16.
Source: Vignoles and Meschi, forthcoming, “The determinants of non-cognitive and cognitive schooling outcomes”.
Be healthy
13
…and ceasing to enjoy school is associated with a range of
negative outcomes
Children that enjoy school perform
better at KS4, even when accounting for
prior attainment and are significantly
less likely to engage in risky and antisocial behaviour
Impact of school enjoyment on
outcomes
10%
children who are bullied perform worse
than children who are not bullied and
are more likely to experience
behavioural problems…
8%
6%
4%
2%
…but are no more likely to truant…
0%
-2%
Enjoy
Achieve
-4%
-6%
-8%
Key Stage 4
Stay Safe
(bullying)
Make a
positive
contribution
Source: IFS (2009) Drivers and Barriers to Educational Success: Evidence from
LSYPE
Smoke
frequently
Drink
frequently
Find School worthwhile (Age 14)
Tried
Cannabis
Anti-social
behaviour
Truancy
Stop liking school (Age 14 - 16)
14
The relative importance of individual, family, and social factors in
determining child outcomes
Determinants of
outcomes
Individual
ECM Outcomes
Later outcomes
Achieve
economic
well-being
Enjoy and
Achieve
Family
Adult outcomes
Institutional
Stay Safe
Intergenerational
impacts
Social
Early outcomes
Be healthy
Source: Adapted from Crawford et al (2009) Drivers and Barriers to Educational Success Evidence
from the Longitudinal Study of Young People in England DCSF RR 102
Make a
positive
contribution
15
Family income is associated with a wide range of cognitive
and non-cognitive outcomes...
Significant Income
gradients are observed in
mid-childhood outcomes
Family
The steeper the curve, the stronger the
relationship between income and the
outcome in question
These income gradients
appear to be largest for
cognitive outcomes…
….and smallest for obesity,
self esteem and behaviour
Paul Gregg, Carol Propper and Elizabeth Washbrook (2008) Understanding the Relationship between Parental Income
and Multiple Child Outcomes: a decomposition analysis CMPO Working Paper No. 08/193
16
…and well as for a number of “behaviours”, though not always in
the expected direction
Participates in positive activities
Family
Frequent smoker, age 14
100%
7%
90%
6%
80%
5%
70%
percent
per cent
60%
50%
40%
30%
4%
3%
2%
20%
1%
10%
0%
0%
poorest
2
3
4
richest
poorest
quintiles of socio-econom ic position
2
3
4
richest
quintiles of socio-econom ic position
Frequent drinker, age 14
Anti-social behaviour
10%
9%
8%
7%
per cent
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
poorest
2
3
4
richest
quintiles of socio-econom ic position
Source: Crawford et al (2009) Drivers and Barriers to Educational Success Evidence from the
Longitudinal Study of Young People in England DCSF RR 102
17
Does this mean income is all that matters?
Family
No. These gradients can’t be considered causal.
Much – but not all – of the observed income gradients in
childhood outcomes are transmitted via parental
characteristics and the home environment – which is partly
a result of their parents’ socio-economic background.
However children living in poverty experience restricted access to many
factors which might otherwise provide ‘protection’ against the negative
impact of low-income, including: friendships; time with family; good
relationships with teachers; ability to concentrate on school work;
health; stability of neighbourhood and school; and membership of social
networks.
18
Family income does seem to have a direct causal impact on childhood
outcomes, but the effects are fairly modest…
• UK evidence suggest that a one-third reduction in family
income increases the propensity to achieve no A-C GCSEs by
between 1 and 3 percentage points…
• Canadian evidence indicates that a $1000 increase in child
benefits causes approximately 7% of a standard deviation
increases in Maths and PPVT scores…
– …and 3% and 5% of a standard deviation reductions in childhood
hyperactivity and physical aggression respectively.
• …and American research has shown a $1000 increase in
family income raises Maths and Reading scores by 6% of a
standard deviation.
19
Source: Stabile and Milligan, 2008 “Do child benefits affect the well-being of children? Evidence from Canadian child benefit expansions”, Gregg and Blanden, 2004 “Family Income and
Educational Attainment: A Review of Approaches and Evidence for Britain”, Dahl and Lochner, 2008 “The impact of Family Income on child achievement”
Parental education explains a good deal of the association
between income and outcomes…
Family
% of income gradient explained by
socio-economic characteristics
100%
Residual income
effect
90%
% of the income gradient
80%
70%
60%
50%
Total explained by
socio-economic
charateristics
40%
30%
20%
Locus of control further
decomposition
10%
KS1 further decomposition
0%
40%
KS1 scores
IQ
Self Esteem
Locus
60%
35%
% explaining the income gradient
% explaining the income gradient
50%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
40%
30%
20%
10%
5%
0%
0%
Family Structure Parental labour
and lifecycle
market status
Parental
Education
Local
Neighbourhood
Paul Gregg, Carol Propper and Elizabeth Washbrook (2008) Understanding the Relationship between Parental Income
and Multiple Child Outcomes: a decomposition analysis CMPO Working Paper No. 08/193
Family
Parental labour
Structure and market status
lifecycle
Parental
Education
Local
Neighbourhood
20
…and parental education also accounts for three-quarters of the
association between income and fat mass…
Family
% of income gradient explained by
socio-economic characteristics
100%
90%
Residual income
effect
% of the income gradient
80%
70%
60%
Total explained by
socio-economic
charateristics
50%
40%
30%
20%
Fat mass further
decomposition
80%
10%
0%
70%
Behaviour
25%
60%
% explaining the income gradient
% explaining the income gradient
30%
Fat mass
Behaviour further
decomposition
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
20%
15%
10%
5%
-10%
0%
-20%
Family Structure Parental labour
and lifecycle
market status
Parental
Education
Local
Neighbourhood
Paul Gregg, Carol Propper and Elizabeth Washbrook (2008) Understanding the Relationship between Parental Income
and Multiple Child Outcomes: a decomposition analysis CMPO Working Paper No. 08/193
Family Structure Parental labour
and lifecycle
market status
Parental
Education
Local
Neighbourhood
21
Differences in the environments and behaviours of children from
low and high income households predict a substantial proportion
of the income gradients…
Parental characteristics account for one third
of the cognitive income gradients, but over
50% of the shallower mental and physical
health outcome gradients
Percentage of the income gradient explained by
differences in environments and behaviours of low and
high income households
70%
60%
50%
Family
Mothers’ psychological functioning and
access to social networks are
particularly important for behavioural
problems.
Health-related behaviours of low income
parents are as important for cognitive
outcomes and child mental and physical
health.
40%
If smoking rates among low income
mothers were to fall to the rates of their
higher income counterparts, the income
gradients for fat mass and child
behaviour would fall by one fifth
30%
20%
10%
0%
IQ
Key Stage 1
Locus of
control
Self-esteem
Behaviour
Fat mass
Paul Gregg, Carol Propper and Elizabeth Washbrook (2008) Understanding the Relationship between Parental Income
and Multiple Child Outcomes: a decomposition analysis CMPO Working Paper No. 08/193
22
…but there also may be adverse consequences of higher-income
lifestyles…
Family
Maternal
employment
Long hours of maternal employment in preschool period are associated with lower
cognitive, non-cognitive and behavioural
outcomes in children
Physical Activity
Learning-focused activities and
behaviours, car ownership and the
temperature of the home in the pre- school
period are all associated with greater fat
mass in children at age 9
Paul Gregg, Carol Propper and Elizabeth Washbrook (2008) Understanding the Relationship between Parental Income
and Multiple Child Outcomes: a decomposition analysis CMPO Working Paper No. 08/193
23
…and we are only now starting to understand what behaviours
and characteristics to be important in explaining parenting style.
Family
‘Characteristics’
Behaviours
Predictors of parenting quality* at age 1 and 5
Breastfeeding
Social Networks
Maternal
Education
Maternal Mental
Health
Marital Status
Number of
siblings
Quality of
interaction at
age 1
Educational
communication
at age 1
Quality of
interaction at
age 5**
Educational
communication
at age 5**



x

x

x


x
x
x
x
x

x
x
x
x
x

x

Source: Adapted from Gutman et al (2009) Nurturing Parenting Capability: the early years
* Measure using the Thorpe Interaction Measure which involves a mother and child
sharing a picture book at ages 1 and 5
**Includes control for age 1 measure so the age 5 effects are additional effects
24
Individual child attitudes are critical. Levels of self-belief are
related to attainment, whereas changes matter for engagement
in risky behaviours.
There strong associations
between children’s beliefs
regarding their own ability and
their academic attainment….
Individual
Impact of child self-belief on outcomes
30%
25%
…but losing self-belief is also
associated with increased
likelihood in engagement in risky
behaviours.
There are also strong
associations between whether a
child believes they have control
over their own economic destiny
and their academic attainment…
Source: IFS (2009) Drivers and Barriers to Educational Success: Evidence from
LSYPE
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Key Stage 4
Smoke
frequently
Drink
frequently
Belief in ow n ability (scale) (Age 14)
Tried Cannabis
Anti-social
behaviour
Lost belief in ow n ability (Age 14 - 16)
25
…and children with greater educational aspiration tend to
perform better in school, and have fewer behavioural issues.
Individual
Impact of higher education aspirations on outcomes
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
Key Stage 4
Smoke frequently
Likely to apply to University (Age 14)
Source: IFS (2009) Drivers and Barriers to Educational Success: Evidence from
LSYPE
Anti-social behaviour
Truancy
Stopped thinking of applying to Uni (Age 14 - 16)
26
So-called “peer effects” have a small, albeit significant
impact on attainment…
Peer effects are dwarfed by the impact
of pupils’ own prior attainment
Low ability pupils do not appear to
benefit as much from mixing with high
ability peers as intermediate and high
ability pupils do
Impact of peer group quality on
attainment
percentile of the age-14 test score
relative to the baseline pupils
Peer groups could account for around
0.6% of the variance in pupils’ progress
between the ages of 11 and 14.
General differences between schools
explain about 13% of the variance
Social
80
70
60
Peer effect, strongest for
medium & high attainers
50
Peer-group Quartile 1
40
Peer-group Quartile 2
30
Peer-group Quartile 3
20
Peer-group Quartile 4
10
0
Level 1-2
Peer group FSM status does not have
a direct impact after controlling for
attainment effects
Gibbons, S., and Telhaj, S. (2006) “Peer Effects and Pupil Attainment: Evidence from
Secondary School Transition” CEE Discussion Paper 63
Level 3
Level 4
Level 5+
prior attainment
Teacher Pupil’s
assessment
of age-11 ability
27
…but neighbourhood characteristics in and of themselves
appear to have little influence on outcomes, except NEET…
Impact of multiple deprivation on chances of
being NEET (relative to 20% most deprived
neighbourhoods)
0.0%
-0.5%
Social
Deprived individuals living in
deprived areas are more likely to
be NEET at age 17 than deprived
individuals living in
non-deprived areas.
However same study finds no
evidence that neighbourhood
deprivation consistently affects Key
Stage 4 scores or any behavioural
outcomes at age 16…
-1.0%
-1.5%
-2.0%
-2.5%
2nd IMD quintile
3rd IMD quintile
4th IMD quintile
Top IMD quintile
Source: IFS (2009) Drivers and Barriers to Educational Success: Evidence from
LSYPE
…though the literature is more
mixed about the impact of
neighbourhoods on behaviour
outcomes
28
Policy Discussion: Section A
(i)
There appear to be complementarities between ECM
outcomes;
•
Exploit interdependencies to improve and broaden the effect of policy.
•
Proactive targeting of pupils at risk of future cognitive and non-cognitive
difficulties.
•
Supportive of the “Personalised Learning” approach.
29
(ii)
The determinants of outcomes: Potential avenues to
improve child outcomes;
Parents:
•
Increasing educational capital of parents.
•
Improving parental psychological health and health-related behaviours.
•
Creating a better home and wider local environment for children.
30
Individual:
•
Increasing the aspirations and self-belief of children
Income:
•
Ensuring parents are aware of the potential adverse effects of
aspects of high income life-styles.
•
Continuation of the use of income transfers and benefits to
disadvantaged families.
31
Outline
Introduction: Scene-setting
A. The interdependence and determinants of
outcomes of childhood
B. The role of Schools and Pre-schools
C. Inter- and Intra-generational associations
32
Differences between schools account for between a tenth and
a fifth of variation in academic attainment…
25%
Voluntary-Aided schools have the best
GCSE results, but they also have a
higher quality intake
Percentage of between-school
variation in test scores
Key Stage 2 and 4 attainment
by school type
28.5
350
28
15%
27.5
LAs with schools who have
more ‘selective’ admissions
systems have more
between-school variation
330
27
KS2 APS
20%
340
26.5
320
26
310
25.5
10%
300
25
290
24.5
5%
24
280
Average capped GCSE and equivalents point score
per end of KS4 pupil
Around a tenth to a fifth of the variation
in Key Stage 2 and Key Stage 4 is
attributable to school differences.
Institutional
Community Voluntary Voluntary Foundation Academy
School
Aided Controlled School
School
School
0%
Key Stage 2 English
Key Stage 2 Maths
Key Stage 4
KS2 APS of Y7 intake 2003/4
Sources: Vignoles and Meschi, forthcoming, “The determinants of non-cognitive and cognitive schooling outcomes”.
Guttman and Feinstein (2008) “Children’s Well-being in Primary School: Pupil and School Effects”; DCSF “(2008) GCSE and Equivalent Results in England, 2007/8
and DCSF (2008) The Composition of Schools in England
Capped APS KS4 2007/08
33
Institutional
…but good teachers do seem to matter...
Being taught by a high-quality (75th
percentile) rather than low-quality (25th
percentile) teacher adds 0.425 of a
GCSE point per subject (where 1 point=
1 grade).
Impact of teacher quality on GCSE
attainment
1.2
Rivkin et al (2005) find the gap in GCSE
points between a poor and non-poor
student is 6.08 GCSE points.
If the poor student had good teachers
for all 8 subjects and the non-poor
student had poor (25th percentile
teachers) for all 8, this would make up
3.4 points (56% of the difference).
Source: Burgess et al (2009) Do teachers matter? Measuring the variation in teacher effectiveness in
England
GCSE points per subject
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
Difference betw een 25th and
75th percentile
Difference betw een 5th and 95th
percentile
34
Institutional
…as do pupil-teacher relations…
Good teacher-child relations are
negatively associated with
engagement in a wide range of
risky behaviours…
Impact of pupil-teacher relations on
age 16 outcomes
8%
6%
4%
Children attending schools with a
high level of parental involvement
experience 5% and 4%
advantages in Key Stage 2 Maths
and English respectively…
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
…while conversely, schools with a
high level of parent-teacher
disputes experience 5% lower Key
Stage 2 scores on average.
-8%
-10%
-12%
KS4 value added
Sources: IFS (2009) Drivers and Barriers to Educational Success: Evidence from LSYPE
Guttman and Feinstein (2008) “Children’s Well-being in Primary School: Pupil and School Effects”
Frequent smoker
Frequent drinker
Ever tried
cannabis
Played truant in
the last year
35
There also is evidence that more resources at the margin
can improve outcomes, especially for disadvantaged groups…
Institutional
Key Stage 2
An increase of £1,000 in average expenditure per pupil leads to an
implies an average improvement in attainment corresponding to 4.3%
of a level in English, 3.5% in maths and 1.9% in science (OLS)
Key Stage 3
£100 more on per pupil expenditure increases Maths and Science
attainment at Key Stage 3 on average by 4% of a level (IV)
Key Stage 4
£100 per annum over 5 years of additional expenditure per
pupil would be associated with an improvement of about 0.3 in the
capped GCSE points score. (IV)
Spending the same amount on reducing the pupil-teacher ratio has a
greater effect
Other key issues
Effects are of greater magnitude for pupils from more disadvantaged
backgrounds, especially those with high prior attainment.
Levacic et al (2005) Estimating the Relationship Between School Resources and Pupil Attainment at Key Stage 3; Levacic et al (2006) Estimating the Relationship
between School Resources and Pupil Attainment at GCSE; Holmand et al (2008) Impact of School Resources on Attainment at Key Stage 2
36
The famous “Feinstein
Chart” of the 1970 cohort
demonstrates that social
class gaps open early, and
continue to widen…
Attainment percentile
Social class gaps open early, and continue to widen…
Attainment (percentile rank)
by SES and early ability
100
80
60
40
20
0
Hses, Hab’ty
Hses, Lab’ty
Lses, Hab’ty
Lses, Lab’ty
22
42
62
82
102
122
…but this doesn’t appear to
be a historical anomaly – the
Millennium Cohort Study is
begging to reveal a similar
trend…
Attainment percentile
Age (m onths)
Attainment (percentile rank)
by income and early ability
100
80
60
40
20
0
Hinc, Hab’ty
Linc, Hab’ty
Hinc, Lab’ty
Linc, Lab’ty
22
42
62
82
102
122
Age (m onths)
Source: Feinstein (2003). “Inequality in the Early Cognitive Development of British Children in the 1970 Cohort,” Economica, p73-97.
Blanden and Machin (2007) Recent Changes in Intergenerational Mobility
37
Pre-School has significant effect on a child’s early cognitive outcomes…
Children who spend more time in pre-school,
experience significantly higher cognitive
attainments…
…and these effect persist into early primary
school
Impact of pre school on cognitive ability (preschool) – compared to home children
Impact of pre-school on primary school reading –
compared to home children
60%
0.05
0.045
50%
% of standard deviation
0.04
0.035
0.03
0.025
0.02
0.015
0.01
40%
30%
20%
10%
0.005
0
Pre-reading
Early Number Concepts
Language
0%
Entry to School
< 1 yr pre-school
1 - 2 yrs pre-school
2 - 3 yrs pre-school
> 3 yrs pre-school
EPPE: Tech Paper 8a “Measuring the Impact of Pre-School on Children’s Cognitive Progress over the Pre-School Period”
Year 1
Year 2
< 1 yr pre-school
1 - 2 yrs pre-school
2 - 3 yrs pre-school
> 3 yrs pre-school
38
…and social and behavioural development.
Results show that children
who have spent more time in
pre-school have
significantly better social
behavioural development.
Impact of pre school on non-cognitive
outcomes (pre school) – compared to
home children
0.12
0.1
A small time in preschool
appears to be best for cooperation and conformity…
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0
…but only those who have
spent a long time in preschool are significantly more
anti-social / worried
-0.02
-0.04
Independence and
concentration
< 1 yr pre-school
Cooperation and
conformaty
1 - 2 yrs pre-school
EPPE: Tech Paper 8b “Measuring the Impact of Pre-School on Children’s Social/Behavioural Development over the Pre-School Period”
Peer sociability
2 - 3 yrs pre-school
Anti-social / Worried
> 3 yrs pre-school
39
The positive effect of pre-school persists well into childhood
There is a clear pre-school
quality gradient in Key Stage 2 Maths and
English.
…and good quality pre-school can help to
promote young people’s self-regulation
Effect of pre-school quality on age 11 English
and maths
Impact of pre-school on self regulation and prosocial behaviour age 11
0.4
0.35
0.3
0.3
0.25
0.2
effect size
effect size
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.15
0.1
0.1
0.05
0.05
0
0
Low Quality
Medium Quality
English
Maths
High Quality
Self-regulation
Low quality
Pro-social behaviour
Medium quality
EPPE (3-11): Final Report from the Primary Phase: Pre-school, School and Family Influences on Children’s Development During Key Stage 2 (Age 7-11)
High quality
40
Policy Discussion: Section B
(i)
The role of Schools
•
Improving the quality of teachers and ensuring good
teacher-child/parent relations
•
Ensuring a good child-school “fit” and further support
for the “Personalised Learning” program.
41
(ii)
The role of pre-schools:
•
Encouraging attendance and duration in pre-schools.
•
Improving the quality of pre-schools.
42
Outline
Introduction: Scene-setting
A. The interdependence and determinants of
outcomes of childhood
B. The role of Schools and Pre-schools
C. Inter- and Intra-generational associations
43
Age 11 social and cognitive skills matter for employment and adult
wages
Impact of social and
cognitive skills at age 11
on (log) wages
Impact of social and
cognitive skills at age 11
on probability of
employment
Pedro Carneiro , Claire Crawford , Alissa Goodman, 2007: The Impact of Early Cognitive and Non-Cognitive Skills on Later Outcomes
44
Age 11 well-being and cognitive skills also associated with fewer
mental, physical and behavioural problems in adulthood…
Impact of age 11 social and cognitive skills
on non-cognitive outcomes
0%
-5%
effect size
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
-30%
Crime
Poor Health
Well-being (Age 11)
Depression
Mental health
problems
Cognitive Skills (Age 11)
Source: Carneiro, P. et al (2007) The Impact of Early Cognitive and Non-Cognitive Skills on Later Outcomes CEE Discussion Paper 92
45
…so it is not surprising that intergenerational income mobility has
stayed stubbornly high (by international standards) over recent years…
1958
1970
=0.205
=0.291
Decomposing the change in the relationship
between family income and sons’ income
1958-1970
where
ln Yi sons     ln Yi parents   i
• 3/4 of the rise in the intergenerational co-
efficient can be explained, mainly by
strengthening relationships between family
income and:
Total
Unexplained
Labour Market
Post 18 Education
Post 16 Education
• Access to HE;
• Attainment at 16;
• Unemployment
Age 16 Exams
Cognitive tests 10/11
Non-Cogntive 10/11
Health
• Parental income had more impact on Noncognitive skills in the 1970 cohort, but the
effect of non-cognitive skills on income
mainly operated through raising attainment.
-0.02
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
Change in intergerational persistance 1958-1970
Source: Blanden, Gregg and MacMillan (2006) “Explaining Intergenerational Income Persistence: Non-cognitive
Skills, Ability and Education” CMPO Working Paper 06/146
46
…and recent evidence shows that intergenerational
Stay safe
associations are evident for the whole range of ECM outcomes…
Intergenerational conditional correlations
between parent and child outcomes
Broken home
Have security, stability and
cared for
Father's interest in
child age 10
Mother's interest in
child age 10
Safe from crime and ASB
Mother scared of
going out, child
scared
Bullied
Bullying and discrimination
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
conditional correlation
Source: Blanden et al (forthcoming) “Research on the Intergenerational Links in the Every Child Matters Outcomes” CEE
47
There are strong intergenerational associations between a
number of health outcomes, for example birthweight
Be healthy
Intergenerational conditional correlations
between parent and child outcomes
Healthy Lifestyles
Parent adult drinking (30) and child drinking
(age13-16)
Parent youth drinking (16) and child drinking
(age13-16)
Mother smoke age 16
Father smoke age 16
Externalising behaviour age 16
Mentally / Emotionally Healthy
Externalising behaviour age 10
Externalising behaviour age 5
Internalising behaviour age 5
MMR Immunisation
Chicken Pox
Physically Healthy
Mumps
Measles
Birth Weight
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
conditional correlation
Source: Blanden et al (forthcoming) “Research on the Intergenerational Links in the Every Child Matters Outcomes” CEE
48
The link between early cognitive ability of parents and children
is not as strong as later cognitive ability
Enjoy
and
achieve
Intergenerational conditional correlations
between parent and child outcomes
Achieve personal social
development and enjoy
recreation
Child not liked by other
children
Maths age 10
Achieve stretching national
educational standards in
primary school
Spelling age 10
Vocabulary age 5
Ready for school
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
conditional correlation
Source: Blanden et al (forthcoming) “Research on the Intergenerational Links in the Every Child Matters Outcomes” CEE
49
Make a
positive
contribution
…and there is generally less of a link between “making a
positive contribution” indicators…
Intergenerational conditional correlations
between parent and child outcomes
Parent discriminatory
view s and bullying
Develop positive
relationships and choose not
to bully and discriminate
Bullies age 16
Bullies age 10
Engage in decision making
and support community and
environment
Social activity index
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
condtional correlation
Source: Blanden et al (forthcoming) “Research on the Intergenerational Links in the Every Child Matters Outcomes” CEE
50
Achieve
economic
well-being
…and the link between educational and economic well-being is
particularly strong
Intergenerational conditional correlations
between parent and child outcomes
Parent ow ns house
Live in decent homes and
sustainable communities
Number of rooms in
household
Parent expectations of
child going on to university
Aspirations for child to
leave at compulsory age
Engage in further education
Mother left school early,
child w ants to leave early
Father left school early,
child w ants to leave early
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
conditional correlation
Source: Blanden et al (forthcoming) “Research on the Intergenerational Links in the Every Child Matters Outcomes” CEE
51
…and similarly, children living in social housing are much
more likely to live in social housing as adults…
Achieve
economic
well-being
Children born in 1970 living in social
housing are over 3 times more likely to
live in social housing in adulthood...
…and social housing is associated
with almost every indicator of disadvantage
measurable.
52
Policy Discussion: Section C
Inter-generational persistence and intra-generational
associations:
•
Closing the gap in non-cognitive skills between rich and poor
children.
•
Continued action to raise attainment of poor children at 16 and
beyond.
•
Ensuring poor children do not experience long-term
unemployment early in their careers.
53