Transcript The Good Life – or Dictatorship, Depression and Genocide?
The Good Life – or Dictatorship, Depression and Genocide?
The Logic of Comparative Politics
I. Why Study Comparative Politics?
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1.
Internationalized Problems Environment – Other countries’ environmental policies affect our air, water, and soil
Chernobyl Effects
I. Why Study Comparative Politics?
A.
1.
2.
Internationalized Problems Environment – Other countries’ environmental policies affect our air, water, and soil Economy – Other countries’ economies and economic policies affect our economy, for better or worse
I. Why Study Comparative Politics?
A.
1.
2.
3.
Internationalized Problems Environment – Other countries’ environmental policies affect our air, water, and soil Economy – Other countries’ economies and economic policies affect our economy, for better or worse Instability – Other countries’ wars and civil violence endanger our security
I. Why Study Comparative Politics?
A.
1.
2.
3.
4.
Internationalized Problems Environment – Other countries’ environmental policies affect our air, water, and soil Economy – Other countries’ economies and economic policies affect our economy, for better or worse Instability – Other countries’ wars and civil violence endanger our security Repression – Human rights violations affect us through immigration and international conflict
B. Domestic Problems
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How can we preserve freedom at home? Look at cases where freedom failed… How can we achieve economic growth? Look to other economies’ performance… How can we protect our security? Examine security strategies of other countries…
C. Questions: Looking for variation
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2.
3.
How independent should the judiciary be? Need examples of politicized judiciaries… What effect does the two-party system have on politics and government? Need examples of multi party systems… What effect does government-sponsored universal health insurance have on health? Need examples of national health strategies…
II. The Comparative Method: Solving Problems and Answering Questions
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Turn normative (value) problems into empirical (fact) ones.
Normative statements a.
b.
c.
Definition: Prescriptive statements about how the world should be or how we ought to behave Keywords: Should, Ought, Right, Wrong, Best, Worst Examples: What is the best government? Should we take measures to reduce inequality? Should we go to war?
2. Empirical Statements
a.
b.
c.
Definition: Descriptive, Explanatory, or Predictive statements about what the world is like or how it is likely to change Keywords: Causes, Prevents, Affects, Increases, Decreases, Higher, Lower Examples: Does democracy decrease the risk of war? Does a free market economy grow faster than a command economy?
B. Theories and Hypotheses
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Identify the dependent variable (DV): What do you wish to explain? Chapter 2 has examples of problems… Suggest possible independent variables (IVs) that might explain the dependent variable. Chapter 2 has a long list of IVs – Resources, Social Identity, Ideas, etc.
a.
Hypothesize either a positive or negative relationship between each IV and the DV: Positive (+): ↑ Wealth ↑ Political Stability b.
Negative or Inverse (-): ↑ Corruption ↓ Political Stability
4. Theory: The story behind your hypotheses
a.
b.
Why did you expect a positive relationship? What causes what?
Are there other things you expect to find if this hypothesis turns out to be true?
Example: A theory of political stability with five hypotheses
Dependent Variable Independent Variables Hypothesized Relationships
C. Hypothesis-Testing: Here Comes the Science
1. Gather evidence (data) on the DV and all IVs a.
Comparative Politics: Gather data for each country examined (Belgium, France, Sweden, Burundi, etc.), perhaps even each country-year (Belgium 1990, Belgium 1991, Belgium 1992, France 1990, France 1991, etc.) b.
c.
Process: Gather data that might challenge the hypothesis (your selection of cases will be scrutinized closely for bias!) Goal: Variables should…
vary
. Often a problem with single-country studies.
Example: Selection on the Independent Variable
Country France UK USA Sweden Regime Type Democracy Democracy Democracy Democracy Economic Growth Low Medium High Medium
Does democracy increase economic growth?
Example: Selection on the Independent Variable
Country Regime Type France UK USA Sweden Cuba Congo Democracy Democracy Democracy Democracy Autocracy Autocracy Pakistan Autocracy
Does your answer change?
Economic Growth Low Medium High Medium Low Low Low
Example: Selection on the Dependent Variable
Country Congo Iraq Bosnia Herzegovina Nepal Diversity High High High Low Civil War?
Yes Yes Yes Yes
Does ethnic diversity cause civil war?
Example: Selection on the Dependent Variable
Country Diversity Congo Iraq Bosnia-Herzegovina Nepal Kenya Cameroon Indonesia High High High Low High High High Bolivia High
Has the answer changed?
Civil War?
Yes Yes Yes Yes No No No No
2. Compare the hypotheses to the data
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b.
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Is the hypothesis a deterministic law? Very rare… i.
Is the hypothesis a probabilistic law?
Is there a correlation between IV and DV?
ii.
Is the direction (+ or -) consistent with the hypothesis?
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Evaluate the usefulness of the laws.
How much better can we predict if we know this law, versus knowing nothing but the average value of the DV? (Example: How much better do we do at predicting growth if we apply the law to each case than if we just guess “Medium” for every country?) How much variation in the DV is left unexplained?
3. Evaluate challenges to the theory
a.
b.
c.
d.
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Could the DV be causing changes in the IV? Solution: Time (Cause must precede effect!) Is the independent variable really an intervening variable? Solution: “Control” variables.
Did some hypotheses fail the test? What might have led to this failure? Solution: “Control” variables.
Do you need to modify your story to better predict the DV?
What new hypotheses are suggested by these results?
III. Defining Politics: A Starting Point for Models
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B.
C.
Definition: “The authoritative allocation of resources and values .” Politics creates winners and losers 1.
2.
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Key Terms: Authority: Government has a monopoly on the legitimate use of force, so it is the only one with the authority to allocate.
Resource Allocation: Money, labor, commodities “Allocation” of Values: Deciding between incompatible moral or ethical principles
IV. How are resources authoritatively allocated? A Simple Process Model
A. Agenda-Setting
Proposing alternatives to the
status quo
– Status Quo: The way things are (the current system)
1. Individuals
1. Individuals
1. Individuals -- Powerless alone
2. Unorganized Groups
2. Unorganized Groups -- Must be considered, but cannot set agenda
3. Organized groups
3. Organized groups -- Set agenda and shape citizen response
4. Benefits of Organization
a. Credible Commitment -- Conditional support b. Outreach -- Publicity, Money, Media Access c. Persuasion -- Information to representatives
5. How to Initiate Change
a. Representatives: The Elected • Use Money, Votes, Publicity • Math for politicians: Anything + Money = Anything Else?
b. Bureaucrats: Experts and Career Officials – or Dictators • Use Information, Persuasion c. Appointees: Judges, Cabinet, etc.
• Target Appointers d. ALL: Corruption or Revolution
B. Government Action 1. Legislation
a. Logrolling: You scratch my back, I’ll scratch yours
From the early American practice of neighbors gathering to help clear land by rolling off and burning felled timber
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b. Partisanship: Leads to either partisan government or gridlock
2. Implementation: Bureaucracy, Courts, and the “Rule of Law”
a. Enforcement of laws • Relies on executive power and judicial capacity b. Regulations and Decrees… • Substitute for legislation in many dictatorships • Clarify legislation in democracies
C. Citizen Response
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Media reports: Citizens base decisions on easily-accessible information, whether right or wrong Elections and voting: Citizens may punish or reward leaders (retrospective voting) or look to the best candidate for the future (prospective voting) Protest and Resistance: Citizens may ignore, disobey, protest, or fight government authority (Challenge to state’s monopoly on the legitimate use of force)
D. Implications of the Model
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Agenda-Setting can determine the outcome of political struggles organization key to political success Democracies should prompt less violent resistance than autocracies (legal avenues for powerful interests to set agenda) Rational politicians try to anticipate which coalitions will support or oppose them in elections or war pre-empt opposition
V. Key Variables in Comparative Politics: Steps in the General Model…
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B.
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How is the agenda set?
What issues or ideas (cleavages) divide unorganized groups?
How do people organize?
How do organized interests pressure the government?
How do governments decide?
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2.
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Which coalitions do leaders have to please to remain in power?
What procedures exist to select between logrolling and partisanship?
Does partisanship produce partisan rule or gridlock?
How do citizens behave?
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How do citizens perceive government action?
When are citizens likely to obey the law?
When are new leaders selected?
What form will citizen resistance take?
D. Why study these variables?
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What causes civil war and genocide?
What causes depressions and recessions?
What causes political violence?
Comparative Politics: At least some causes of these things lie in the political choices made by different countries’ people and governments -- and the cultures in which those choices are made