Transcript web205.vbox-01.inode.at

ConAccount Meeting
11-12th October 04, Zurich
Modelling Changes in Resource Use of
the Austrian Economy
Andrea Stocker
Sustainable Europe Research Institute (SERI)
Structure of presentation
1. Aim and Motivation
2. Input-Output Analysis
•
Explanation of extended IOA
•
Empirical results
3. Decomposition Analysis
•
Explanation of chosen method
•
Empirical results
Andrea Stocker
ConAccount Meeting, Zurich, 11-12 October, 2004
Page 2
Aim and Motivation
Aim of the contribution
•
Showing the resource use of the Austrian sectors
•
Analysing which sectors are responsible (directly
and indirectly) for the overall resource use, using
Input-Output Analysis
•
Analysing the development of the resource use in
the period 1995 to 2000
•
Separating the changes in resource use in a
technological, structural and final demand effect
(Structural Decomposition Analysis).
Andrea Stocker
ConAccount Meeting, Zurich, 11-12 October, 2004
Page 3
Aim and Motivation
Motivation
•
Dematerialization as important goal to reach
ecological sustainability
-
Reducing material inputs
-
Relative vs. absolute dematerialisation
•
Decrease of resource use and its decoupling of
economic growth represent central goals of the
Austrian Strategy for sustainable development
•
Parallel analysis of economic and environmental
aspects, which can be done with IO Analysis
Andrea Stocker
ConAccount Meeting, Zurich, 11-12 October, 2004
Page 4
Theoretical Methods
Input-output approach for analyzing the
resource use of the Austrian economy
•
Provides a comprehensive picture of inter-linkages
between environment and socio-economic system as it
allows to combine bio-physical data and social
data with monetary input-output-models
•
Shows not only direct but also indirect effects which
occur because of the various relationships between the
sectors of an economy.
Structural Decomposition Analysis
•
Using Input-Output Approach to decompose the
material use in its underlying factors.
Andrea Stocker
ConAccount Meeting, Zurich, 11-12 October, 2004
Page 5
Extended IO Analysis
Extended Input-Output Analysis
• Integration of material flows in IO-Analysis:
Method developed by Hinterberger, Femia, Moll (1998)
• Extending monetary IO tables by an additional row of
biophysical information
• Extension with material inputs is reasonable because the
hypothesis of a closed monetary cycle between
firms and households, which do not need absorptions
from nature and deliveries to the nature is not
adequate.
• Comprehensive quantification of direct and indirect
resource inputs activated by final demand.
Andrea Stocker
ConAccount Meeting, Zurich, 11-12 October, 2004
Page 6
Extended IO Analysis
Monetary IO table with additional row of material input
Use
Sectors
(1,..,n)
Final demand (y)
Total output
Sectors (1,..,n)
Z
y
x
Value Added
v'
Imports
m'
Total input
x'
Material input
(in tons per sector)
DMI'
Supply
Static monetary IO model
x  ( I  A)1 y  Ly
Sectoral material input coefficients
m'  DMI ' xˆ 1
Multiplier matrix, weighted by physical units
(material input in tons)
M  mˆ L
Direct and indirect MI of final demand
DMI  My
Andrea Stocker
ConAccount Meeting, Zurich, 11-12 October, 2004
Page 7
Empirical Analysis
Data requirements
•
To get a clear picture of the interrelations between the
natural and the socio-economic (sub-)system,
indicators of MFA can be related to Input-Output
Tables.
•
Input-Output Tables for 1995 and 2000 are available
•
Austrian time series of material input from 1960 to 2001,
using Direct Material Input (DMI) as indicator
(domestic extraction plus imported materials)
Andrea Stocker
ConAccount Meeting, Zurich, 11-12 October, 2004
Page 8
Empirical Analysis
Static Analysis
• Direct and total amounts for 1995 and 2000
• Material intensity for 1995 and 2000
– Direct material coefficients
– Total material requirements and multipliers
Multiplier for sector j (column sum of the weighted Total
Requirements Matrix): total amount of material use in all sectors
of the economy that is necessary for sector j‘s output to satisfy a
Euro‘s worth of final demand.
• Amount, share and multipliers of resource use of the
catagories of final demand
Analysing changes over time
Andrea Stocker
ConAccount Meeting, Zurich, 11-12 October, 2004
Page 9
Empirical Analysis
Direct Material Use
• Only a few sectors extract material directly from
nature
–
–
–
–
–
Agriculture and forestry
coal mining
ores mining
crude petroleum and natural gas
Natural stones, clay and grawel
• High import share (30 %)
– In 1999 87 % of fossil materials were imported
– Nevertheless only considering the domestic material extraction,
because an exact allocation of imported amounts is not possible.
Andrea Stocker
ConAccount Meeting, Zurich, 11-12 October, 2004
Page 10
Empirical Results
Direct resource use 1995 und 2000, amounts and intensities
2000
[1000 t]
Agriculture, forestry, fishing
Output
Material input
(prices 1995)
[%]
[Mio. Euro]
Material
coefficents
34.050
27,71%
6.467,32
0,53
Mining of coal and lignite
1.347
1,10%
50,42
2,67
Crude petrol., natural gas, metal ores
4.653
3,79%
379,83
1,23
82.850
67,41%
1.121,74
7,39
122.900
100,00%
8.019,30
15,33
Quarrying of natural stone
Summe
1995
Material input
[1000 t]
Agriculture, forestry, fishing
[%]
Output
[Mio. Euro]
Material
coefficents
37.990
30,45%
5.803,65
0,48
Mining of coal and lignite
1.250
1,00%
52,98
1,71
Crude petrol., natural gas, metal ores
4.460
3,57%
200,72
1,61
81.080
64,98%
836,46
7,04
124.780
100,00%
6.893,82
18,10
Quarrying of natural stone
Summe
Andrea Stocker
ConAccount Meeting, Zurich, 11-12 October, 2004
Page 11
Empirical Results
Direct resource use 1995 und 2000, amounts
Materialinput in 1000t
90.000
80.000
70.000
60.000
50.000
1995
2000
40.000
30.000
20.000
10.000
0
Agriculture, forestry, fishing
Andrea Stocker
Mining of coal and lignite
Crude petrol., natural gas, metal ores
Quarrying of natural stone
ConAccount Meeting, Zurich, 11-12 October, 2004
Page 12
Empirical Results
Direct resource use 1995 und 2000, intensities
Materialcoefficents
8,00
7,00
6,00
5,00
1995
4,00
2000
3,00
2,00
1,00
0,00
Agriculture, forestry, fishing
Andrea Stocker
Mining of coal and lignite
Crude petrol., natural gas, metal ores
ConAccount Meeting, Zurich, 11-12 October, 2004
Quarrying of natural stone
Page 13
-10.000
Andrea Stocker
ConAccount Meeting, Zurich, 11-12 October, 2004
75 Public
administration;
compulsory
social security
70 Real estate
activities
45
Construction
26 Manufacture
of other nonmetallic mineral
products
15 Manufacture
of food
products and
beverages
14 Other
mining and
quarrying
11 Crude
petroleum,
natural gas,
metal ores
10 Mining of
coal and lignite
01 Agriculture,
forestry, fishing
Empirical results
Direct and total (direct + indirect) resource use 2000, amounts
90.000
80.000
70.000
direct
total (direct plus indirect)
60.000
50.000
40.000
30.000
20.000
10.000
0
Page 14
Andrea Stocker
ConAccount Meeting, Zurich, 11-12 October, 2004
Post and telecommunications
Health and social
work
Activities of
membership
organizations
n.e.c.
Sewage and
refuse
disposal,sanitation
and similar act.
Construction
Land transport;
transport via
pipelines
Electricity, gas,
steam and hot
water supply
Other mining and
quarrying
Crude petroleum,
natural gas, metal
ores
Mining of coal and
lignite
Agriculture,
forestry, fishing
Empirical results
Direct and total (direct + indirect) resource use 2000, intensities
90
80
direct
70
total (direct plus indirect)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Page 15
Empirical results
Resource use, induced by final demand catagories
•
Absolute amount and percentage of the catagories
•
Multipliers: how much tons of material input are allocated to a
catagory through 1 Mio. Euro‘s worth of this catagory
Final demand catagories
DMI
[1000 Tonnen]
Private Consumption
38.571,58
Governmental Cons.
8.390,82
Dwellings
17.308,18
Other buildings a. structures 21.448,79
Machinery
762,73
Transport equipment
68,71
other Investments
231,20
Exports
37.998,01
Total
124.780,02
Andrea Stocker
1995
Percentage
[%]
30,91%
6,72%
13,87%
17,19%
0,61%
0,06%
0,19%
30,45%
100,00%
Multiplier
DMI
[1000 t / Mio. € [1000 Tonnen]
0,4573
36.707,21
0,2314
8.864,53
1,9693
13.784,48
1,6582
21.188,69
0,1243
868,44
0,0468
80,87
0,0645
918,41
0,5270
40.487,06
0,6561
122.899,68
2000
Percentage
[%]
29,87%
7,21%
11,22%
17,24%
0,71%
0,07%
0,75%
32,94%
100,00%
ConAccount Meeting, Zurich, 11-12 October, 2004
Multiplicator
[1000 t / Mio.€]
0,4352
0,2445
1,5684
1,6381
0,1415
0,0551
0,2563
0,5615
0,5447
Page 16
Empirical Results
Total MI, induced by final demand catagories (amounts)
DMI in 1000t
45.000,00
40.000,00
35.000,00
30.000,00
25.000,00
1995
2000
20.000,00
15.000,00
10.000,00
5.000,00
0,00
Private
Consumption
Andrea Stocker
Governmental
Cons.
Dwellings
Other buildings a.
structures
Machinery
Transport
equipment
other
Investments
ConAccount Meeting, Zurich, 11-12 October, 2004
Exports
Page 17
Empirical Results
Total MI, induced by final demand catagories (share, %)
1995
Exports
30%
Other Buildings
17%
Andrea Stocker
2000
Privat
Consumption
31%
Exports
32%
Governmental
Consumption
Dwellings
7%
14%
Other
Buildings
18%
ConAccount Meeting, Zurich, 11-12 October, 2004
Privat
Consumption
30%
Governmental
Consumption
7%
Dwellings
11%
Page 18
Empirical Results
Total MI, induced by final demand catagories (Multipliers)
2,5000
2,0000
1,5000
1995
2000
1,0000
0,5000
Andrea Stocker
ConAccount Meeting, Zurich, 11-12 October, 2004
Exports
other Investments
Transport equipment
Machinery
Other buildings a.
structures
Dwellings
Governmental Cons.
Private Consumption
0,0000
Page 19
Decomposition Analysis
Structural Decomposition Analysis (1)
•
Which factors contribute how much to the total
change in a specific variable in Austria?
•
SDA is based on IO models and thus is able to
distinguish different factors that influence total
amounts as well as structure and intensity of
material use.
•
Decompose the absolute change in material use,
separating
- technological effect (changes in resource intensity)
- structural effect (change of Leontief Inverse).
- final demand effect (changes in final consumption)
Andrea Stocker
ConAccount Meeting, Zurich, 11-12 October, 2004
Page 20
Decomposition Analysis
Structural Decomposition Analysis (2)
•
General form of SDA for two factors
x  Ly
1
x  ( I  A) y
x  Ly  Ly
x  xt 1  xt
•
Andrea Stocker
When should we measure ΔL and Δy?
ConAccount Meeting, Zurich, 11-12 October, 2004
Page 21
Decomposition Analysis
Structural Decomposition Analysis (3)
•
Different possibilities:
x  Lyt  Lt 1y
Polar Decomposition
x  Lyt 1  Lt y
Methods
x  Lyt 1  Lt 1y  Ly
x  Lyt  Lt y  Ly
Andrea Stocker
Interaction
ConAccount Meeting, Zurich, 11-12 October, 2004
effect
Page 22
Decomposition Analysis
Structural Decomposition Analysis (4)
• Chosen Approach: Average of the polar
decompositions (Dietzenbacher and Los, 1998)
-
No interaction effects, order of occurence of effects irrelevant
-
Decomposition of methods with interaction effects show a
relatively high share of these effects
• Definition of starting equation
-
Relation between resource use and IO analysis can be
achieved by expressing the resource use per unit of total
output.
m'  DMI ' xˆ 1
DMI  m' x  m' Ly
DMI  DMI2000  DMI1995
Andrea Stocker
ConAccount Meeting, Zurich, 11-12 October, 2004
Page 23
Decomposition Analysis
Structural Decomposition Analysis (5)
• First polar decomposition:
DMI 
m' L1995 y1995  m'2000 Ly1995  m'2000 L2000 y
technology effect
structural effect
final demand effect
• Second polar decomposition:
DMI 
m' L2000 y2000  m'1995 Ly2000  m'1995 L1995 y
technology effect
Andrea Stocker
structural effect
final demand effect
ConAccount Meeting, Zurich, 11-12 October, 2004
Page 24
Decomposition Analysis
Structural Decomposition Analysis (6)
• Average of the two polar decomposition methods:
DMI 
0.5(m L2000 y2000  m L1995 y1995 ) 
0.5(m2000 Ly1995  m1995 Ly2000 ) 
0.5(m2000 L2000 y  m1995 L1995 y )
Andrea Stocker
ConAccount Meeting, Zurich, 11-12 October, 2004
Page 25
Empirical Results
Decomposition of DMI in Austria (1995 – 2000)
Material use
1995: 125 Mio t
2000: 123 Mio t
Change of Material use
[ 1000 t]
Effect
Technology effect
-21.410
1139%
4.048
-215%
Final demand effect
15.482
-823%
Total change of resource use
-1.880
100%
Structural effect
Andrea Stocker
[% ]
ConAccount Meeting, Zurich, 11-12 October, 2004
Page 26
Empirical Results
Decomposition of DMI in Austria (1995 – 2000), 1000 t
20.000
15.000
10.000
5.000
0
Technology effect
Structural effect
Final demand effect
-5.000
Total change of
resource use
-10.000
-15.000
-20.000
-25.000
Andrea Stocker
ConAccount Meeting, Zurich, 11-12 October, 2004
Page 27
Decomposition, sectoral results in 1000 t (1995 – 2000)
10.000
Structural effect
Total change
6.000
70 Real estate
activities
60 Land transport;
transport via
pipelines
45 Construction
40 Electricity, gas,
steam,hot water
supply
26 Other nonmetallic mineral
products
24 Chemicals and
chemical
products
15 Food products
and beverages
14 Other mining
and quarrying
Page 28
ConAccount Meeting, Zurich, 11-12 October, 2004
Andrea Stocker
10 Mining of coal
and lignite
-4.000
01 Agriculture,
forestry, fishing
-2.000
Final demand effect
8.000
Technology effect
4.000
2.000
0
-6.000
-8.000
Conclusions
• Decomposition is a powerful tool to show to which
extent underlying causes contribute to the observed
overall change of a given variable.
• The resource use has decreased from 1995 to
2000 by about 2 Mio. tons.
• Much reduction has been achieved by decreasing the
material use per unit of output (decreasing the
material intensity)
• Since only domestic resource extraction is
considered, the analysis does not provide a
comprehensive picture of the Austrian resource use.
Andrea Stocker
ConAccount Meeting, Zurich, 11-12 October, 2004
Page 29
The end…..thank you !
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