Transcript A Family-Friendly Fiscal Policy to Weather ‘Demographic

Babies and Dollars:
Implications for USA, Russia & the World
John D. Mueller
Lehrman Institute Fellow in Economics
Ethics and Public Policy Center (www.eppc.org)
President, LBMC LLC (www.lbmcllc.com)
Moscow Demographic Summit
Russian State Social University (RSSU), 29-30 June 2011
1
2
.
Persons loved equally (including self)
Augustine's 'Personal Distribution Function'
Personal gifts/crimes are proportional to one's love/hate for the persons
10
9
Selfishness (assumed by Adam Smith
and neoclassical economics)
8
7
Gif ts (express love)
6
Crimes (express hate)
5
4
3
2
1
0
0%
50%
100%
150%
Allocation of own wealth to own use
200%
.
.
3
Fatherhood vs. Homicide: 90% Tradeoff
1936-2000
Economic fatherhood
4
57
56
58
59
6
0
55
61
54
53
62
52
5164
63
47
50
49 48 46
43 65 66
44
4542
67
41
68 69
40
00
38
37 36 70
39
99 98
71
97 96
90
7294
95
79
87 88
7375
92
85
86
82
74819180
93
8483
778
789
76
3
2
1
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Homicide Rate per 100,000
R-square = 0.904 # pts = 65
y = 19.6x^-1.17
4
Per capita Social Spending vs. Fe rtility
* T F R a d j u s t e d f o r m o rt a l it y ( = 2 x N R R )
Total Fertility Rate,* 2006
5
BF
4
ML
NG
3
ETZM
GT
PH
EG
IN
2
ID
JO
IL
VE
PE
MX
ZA
ISUS
TRCL UY
AZ
IEUKFR
NO
NZ
SE
BR
PR
AU
FI
DK
TH
BE
NL
LU
TW
EE
AM
CN
RS
CA
GMD
E
CY
CH
HR
ES
BG
CZ
AT
LV
PT
SI
EL
IT
RU
LT
HU
DE
RO
UAKR SK
BY
MT
PL
JP
AR
1
0
$1
$ 10
$ 10 0
$ 1,0 00
$ 10 ,00 0 $ 10 0,0 0
P e r c a p ita s o c ia l s p e n d in g a t P P P , 2 0 0 6
R -sq u a re = 0 . 5 5 5 # p ts = 7 0
y = 4 .2 1 + -0 . 3 2 2 (ln x)
5
Per capita National Sav ing v s. Fe rtility
* T F R a d j u s t e d f o r m o rt a l it y ( = 2 x N R R )
Total Fertility Rate,* 2006
5
BF
ET
4
ML
ZM
NG
3
GT
JO
PH
IL
EG
PE
VE
IN
AR
MX
ID ZA
TRUY
IS
US
CLNZUKFR DK
IE
NO
BRTH AZ
SE
PR
FI
AU
BE
NL LU
AM
EE
TW
CN CY
CA CH
G E RS BG
MD
HR EL
PT
LV
ITES
AT
RU CZ
SIDE
LT
UAROMT
BYHU
PL
SK
KRJP
2
1
0
$ 10
$ 10 0
$ 1,0 00
$ 10 ,00 0
$ 10 0,0 0
P e r c a p it a n a t io n a l sa v in g a t P P P, 2 0 0 6
R -sq u a re = 0 . 4 6 1 # p ts = 7 0
y = 5 .5 6 + -0 . 4 6 3 (ln x)
6
Wee kly Worship v s. Fertility
T F R a d ju s t e d f o r m o rt a li t y ( = 2 x N R R )
5
Total Fertility Rate,* 2006
BF
ZM ET
ML
GT
4
3
EG
VE
2
1
JO
PH
IL
NG
AR
IS
UY
TR
US
AZ
CL
NO
FR
SE
NZ
DKFI NLAU
UK
BE
EETW
AMRSLUCNGCY
CA
E
MD
CH
ESCZ
HR
BG
AT
EL
SI
PT
IT
RU
LT
HU
DE
SK LV
JP UA KR
BY RO
PE IN
MX
ZA
IEBR PR
TH
MT
ID
PL
0
0%
2 0%
R -sq u a re = 0 . 5 2
y = 1 .1 9 + 2 .4 4 x
4 0%
6 0%
8 0%
1 00 %
R a t e o f w e e k ly w o rsh ip
# p ts = 7 0
7
Rates of Weekly Worship & Abortion
6 0%
Births aborted
5 0%
4 0%
3 0%
2 0%
1 0%
RU
EE
HU
RO
BY
CN
MD G E
RSKR CZ
SE
LT NZ SI
AM
AUUK
FR
JP
NO
DK
IS FI
ES
DE
NL
EL
BE
TW
CH
AZ IL
0%
0%
LV
BG
UA
ID
PE
SK
CA
AT
LU
US
IT
HR
TR
PH
IE
INMX
CL VE
PT
2 0%
BR
4 0%
R -sq u a re = 0 . 0 7 0 5 # p t s = 5 8
y = 0 .0 4 2 6 x^ -0 .5 4 9
PR
ZA
NG
EGPL
6 0%
8 0%
1 00 %
W e e k ly w o rsh ip
8
Total Fe rtility Rate : Predicted vs. Actual
Total Fertility Rate,* 2006
* T FR adjuste d for morta lity (= 2 x NR R)
5
BF
ZM
4
GT
3
VE PE
AR
USCL
UY MX
TR
ISZA
AZ
IE
FR
NO
NZ
UK
FI
DK
SE
BR TH
AU
PR
NL TW
LU BE
CN
EE
AM
RS
CA
GE
CH
HR
ES
CZ HU
AT
BG
SI
LV
EL
ITCY
PTMD
LT
RU
DE
UA
RO
SK
BY
PL
JPKR
MT
2
1
EG IL
IN
ID
ML
ET
NG
JOPH
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
P re d ic te d T o ta l Fe rtility R a te , 2 0 0 6
R -sq u a re = 0 .8 6 9 # p ts = 7 0
y = 1 .1 5 e -0 1 4 + 1 x
9
Impact of Legal Abortion on Social Security
% of payroll
OASDI income and cost rates, SSA intermediate projections
25%
25%
20%
20%
15%
15%
10%
10%
5%
0%
1975
OASDI income rate
1985
1995
2005
OASDI cost rate
2015
2025
2035
cost rate without legal 5%
abortions
2045
2055
2065
0%
2075
From John D. Mueller, "The Socioeconomic Costs of Roe v. Wade," Family Policy, April 2000
10
World Total Fertility Rates & Abortion
(TFRs adjusted for mortality)
Year;
(1)
(2)
CH
(3)
(4)
IN
(1)
ex
abor
tion
(5)
(6)
US
(3)
ex
abor
tion
(7)
(8)
RU
(5)
ex
abor
tion
(7)
ex
abor
tion
(9)
52 countries
(~2/3 world)
weighted by
population
(10)
(9)
ex
abor
tion
2006
actual
1.53
2.10
2.34
2.41
2.01
2.66
1.29
3.08
1.88
2.34
2083
est.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
1.64
2.26
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
11
20 %
20 %
10 %
10 %
0%
0%
-10%
-10%
-20%
-20%
U S net re serves
U S net investment
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
-30%
1976
% of GDP
Net US Monetary Reserves vs. Investment Position
N on-reserve (priv ate) a ssets
12
World Dollar Base ($MW) & Oil Supply vs. CPI Nondurables
($MW lagged 2-1/ 2 years) / (U.S. monetary base x world crude oil supply): year/ year change
50%
20%
40%
15%
30%
20%
10%
10%
0%
5%
-10%
0%
-20%
-5%
09
07
05
03
01
99
97
95
93
CPI nondurables (right)
91
89
87
85
83
81
79
77
75
73
69
67
65
-40%
71
Lagged $MW/ (M0 x crude supply), left scale
-30%
Cal cula ted by LBMC LLC; 'nondu rabl es' are mo stly foo d and energy.
13