Transcript Introduction to Quantitative Data Analysis

Professor David Gordon and Dr Eldin Fahmy
Townsend Centre for International Poverty Research
University of Bristol
Updating The Fuel Poverty Indicator
For England
Why Update the Fuel Poverty
Indicator?
• First developed by CSE and
UoB, using 1991 Census and
1996 EHCS data
• Existing FPI widely used for:
– Identifying the small areas
with highest needs
– Targeting fuel poverty
programmes at a local level
• More than 1,100 data
downloads (July 03)
• Used by 200+ local authorities
• Changes in Census and EHCS
data have resulted in more
reliable and accurate estimates:
• 2001 Census Output Area
Geography
• Improvements to 2001 Census
indicators
• Ability to link postcoded house
price data to the 2001 Census
• Improvements in energy use
modelling and income
measurement in EHCS
What Exactly Do We Mean By
Fuel Poverty?
“A household is said to be in fuel poverty if it needs to spend more
than 10 per cent of its income on fuel to maintain a satisfactory
heating regime (21°C in main living areas / 18 °C in other rooms)”
• Basic Income Fuel Poverty = Total household income (incl. winter
fuel payments): excludes income related directly to housing
• Full Income Fuel Poverty = Total household income including
income from:
– Housing Benefit
– Income Support Mortgage Interest
– Mortgage Payment Protection Insurance
– Council Tax Benefit
– Less payment of Council Tax
Who Is Most At Risk of Fuel Poverty?
Two groups are vulnerable to fuel poverty:
• People with lows incomes
• People with low/moderate incomes living in
energy inefficient housing
• The following groups are
especially vulnerable:
– Unemployed
households (HRP)
– Under-occupied
households
– Household without a car
– Single pensioners
– Households without
central heating
– Lone parents
– Disabled people
– LA and private renters
Outline of Methodology
Estimating the Risk of Fuel Poverty
Univariate and Multivariate Odds (Full Income)
Property value less than £80,000
NS-Sec of HRP= routine/semi-routine
Single pensioner hhld
Single non-pensioner hhld
Lone parent hhld
Private rental tenant
Council tenant
HRP not in work
Dwelling built pre-1920
Hhld lacks central heating
Respondent has no qualifications
Low occupancy standard
One person hhlds with 7+ rooms
Pre-1920 detached dwelling
Data: 2003 EHCS households
UV Odds MV Odds
2.5
1.9
2.2
1.7
4.4
2.1
2.5
10.5
0.9
6.3
1.4
2.6
1.3
1.7
7.6
12.6
1.9
1.9
2.1
1.6
3.4
1.7
1.8
1.6
5.2
2.4
2.2
4.0
Applying the Models:
Basic Income FPI
Basic Income FPI is equal to:
1.3% of hhlds in properties less than £80,000
+ 1.1% of routine/semi-routine employees (HRP)
+ 1.4% of single pensioner hhlds
+ 4.7% of single non-pensioner hhlds
+ 3.7% of lone parent hhlds
+ 1.9% of private rental hhlds
+ 1.1% of council tenants
+ 5.0% of hhlds where HRP is not in work
+ 1.3% of hhlds in pre-WW1 dwellings
+ 1.0% of hhlds lacking central heating
+ 1.1% of hhlds lacking educ. qualifications (HRP)
+ 1.0% of under-occupied dwellings
+ 1.7% of one-person hhlds with 7+ rooms
+ 2.8% of detached pre-WW1 dwellings
Applying the Models: Full Income FPI
Full Income FPI is equal to:
0.8% of hhlds in properties less than £80,000
+ 0.6% of routine/semi-routine employee hhlds (HRP)
+ 1.3% of single pensioner hhlds
+ 3.0% of single non-pensioner hhlds
+ 1.6% of lone parent hhlds
+ 0.9% of private rental hhlds
+ 3.3% of hhlds in where HRP is not in work
+ 1.2% of hhlds living in pre-WW1 dwellings
+ 1.0% of hhlds lacking central heating
+ 1.2% of hhlds without educ. qualifications
+ 1.5% of under-occupied dwellings
+ 1.3% of one-person hhlds with 7+ rooms
+ 2.2% of hhlds in detached pre-WW1 dwellings
Maps of Basic and Full Income FPI at
MSOA Level, 2001 Census data
Basic Income FPI
Full Income FPI
Alternative Definitions and Measures
of Fuel Poverty
• EHCS is not designed to
accurately measure household
income
• EHCS income model differs
from measures used in other
Government surveys:
– Income is not adjusted
(equivalised) for household
composition and sizes
– Assumes reported household
incomes less than the Income
Support threshold to be missreported
• Further work explores how the
rate and geography of fuel
poverty changes if
– Household incomes are adjusted
to need (equivalised)
– Households with very low
incomes are assumed to have
reported their incomes correctly
• These changes to the 2001
EHCS Income Model make
results more comparable with
other surveys (e.g. FRS, EFS)
Vulnerability to Fuel Poverty:
Full Income FPI vs. HBAI FPI
• The overall rate of fuel poverty
is not very sensitive to the way
Full and Basic Incomes are
measured
• BUT the Official FPI places
greater emphasis upon:
– Single person households
– Single pensioner
households
– Under-occupied
households
• The HBAI-FPI places greater
emphasis upon:
– Households containing
large families
– Overcrowded households
– Households in urban
areas (esp. London)
– Household in remote
rural areas (Southwest,
East Anglia, Northumbria,
etc.)
Maps of Basic and Full Income HBAIFPI at MSOA Level, 2001 Census data
Basic Income HBAI-FPI
Full Income HBAI-FPI
The Effects of Changing Definitions
and Measures
Full Income FPI vs HBAI Full FPI
Conclusions: Which Indicator to Use?
• The ability to find and target
households suffering fuel
poverty is vital in eliminating
fuel poverty
• The new FPI should help policy
makers and programme
managers to target resources
at areas of greatest need
• BUT results are ‘best
estimates’ and need to be
interpreted in the light of local
knowledge and expertise
• Changes in measurement of
incomes also affect the
composition and geography of
fuel poverty…
• If the FPI is used to inform the
allocation of resources then the
official indicator is preferred
• It is always useful to investigate
consistency in estimates
between the different
approaches
Professor David Gordon and Dr Eldin Fahmy
Townsend Centre for International Poverty Research
University of Bristol
Updating The Fuel Poverty Indicator
For England