Transcript Presentation - Sask Trends Monitor

The Demographics of the
Saskatchewan Labour Market
a presentation to the
Saskatchewan Centennial Summit
January 2005
Doug Elliott
Sask Trends Monitor
444 19th Avenue
Regina, Saskatchewan
S4N 1H1
306-522-5515
[email protected]
www.sasktrends.ca
Twenty Year Labour Market Projection
•
A projection of the Saskatchewan labour force to 2023 has been
prepared for Saskatchewan Learning. This Labour Market Trends
report updates a previous report published in 2000 and is the basis for
the material in this presentation.
•
Projecting the size of the labour force involves i) projecting the
population, and then ii) projecting labour force participation rates. The
assumptions underlying the projection are:
– a “present trends continue” scenario for the population;
– modest improvements in inter-provincial migration flows;
– declining fertility rates among Aboriginal women, stable rates for nonAboriginal women;
– no change in mortality rates;
– increasing labour force participation rates for women and the Aboriginal
population.
January 2005
1
Natural Growth Rate (births less deaths)
Natural Population Growth in Saskatchewan
•
The “natural growth
rate” has fallen to 2,000
persons per year from
over 10,000 in the early
1980s. It will continue
to be low.
•
That means the size of
the provincial population
will be determined by
migration to an even
greater extent than it is
now.
20
thousands
18
Births
16
14
12
Deaths
10
8
6
4
Natural
Growth
2
0
actual
projected
(2)
1971- 1976- 1981- 1986- 1991- 1996- 2001- 2006- 2011- 2016- 202172
77
82
87
92
97
02
07
12
17
22
July to June:
January 2005
2
Interprovincial Migration
thousands
45
Interprovincial Migration To/From
Saskatchewan
40
35
•
International migration
to Saskatchewan in the
1990s averaged about
2,000 persons per year;
too small to have much
of an aggregate effect.
•
Interprovincial migration
has been and will
continue to be the most
important determinant
of population growth.
•
The projection assumes
that net interprovincial
migration will fluctuate
near zero over the
forecast period.
outgoing
30
25
20
15
incoming
10
5
0
(5)
net
(10)
(15)
(20)
(25)
1973- 1976- 1979- 1982- 1985- 1988- 1991- 1994- 1997- 2000- 200374
77
80
83
86
89
92
95
98
01
04
July to June:
January 2005
3
Population Projection
Saskatchewan Population
Actual and Projected
•
With these
assumptions, the
population will continue
to fluctuate near one
million as it has in the
past.
•
Within the one million
residents, a number of
important changes in
the age distribution will
take place.
1,060
thousands
1,040
1,020
1,000
980
960
940
920
900
880
actual
projected
860
840
1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
as of July 1
January 2005
4
Age Distribution of the Sask Population
Age Distributions in 2003
•
The older end of the “baby
boom” generation is
already contemplating
retirement. (The average
age of retirement in
Canada is now 60 years.)
•
The “echo” in is relatively
large compared with
Canada as a whole
because of the Aboriginal
population.
•
There is Saskatchewan’s
competitive advantage the presence of a large
potential labour force - to
mitigate the effects of a
shortage caused by
retiring boomers.
20,000
Canada
equivalent
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
Echo
Boom
6,000
4,000
Bust
2,000
0
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80
January 2005
5
Age Distribution in 2003
2003
Total =995,000
Aboriginal = 14%
16,000
14,000
12,000
Aboriginal
10,000
8,000
6,000
Non Aboriginal
4,000
25 to 59 years of age
Total = 454,000
Aboriginal = 12%
2,000
0
0
3
6
January 2005
9
12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78
6
Projected Age Distribution in 2013
2013
Total =994,000
Aboriginal = 17%
16,000
14,000
12,000
Aboriginal
10,000
8,000
6,000
Non Aboriginal
4,000
25 to 59 years of age
Total = 466,000
Aboriginal = 15%
2,000
0
0
3
6
January 2005
9
12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78
7
Projected Age Distribution in 2023
2023
Total =988,000
Aboriginal = 20%
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
Aboriginal
8,000
6,000
Non Aboriginal
4,000
25 to 59 years of age
Total = 435,000
Aboriginal = 21%
2,000
0
0
3
6
January 2005
9
12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78
8
The Size of the Labour Force
Effect of Participation Rate Scenarios on the
Size of the Labour Force
570
•
An increase in labour
force participation rates
will be required to keep
the decline in the
population from
translating into a decline
in the labour force.
•
The key to increasing
these rates is the
Aboriginal population.
With increases in
education levels, 22% of
new labour force entrants
could be Aboriginal in
2015.
Increasing
participation rates
thousands
550
530
Constant
participation rates
510
490
470
actual
projected
450
1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022
January 2005
9
Some Implications for the Labour Market
•
This kind of general decline in the labour market will happen here before it
does in other provinces. There is disagreement among economists about
the impact but we expect one or more of the following will happen.
– The demand for labour will generate an increase in wage rates, attracting
workers from other provinces or countries.
– The same increase in wage rates will attract those not employed (particularly
seniors) to enter or re-enter the labour market.
– The economy will shift from labour intensive activities to capital intensive ones.
– There will be an increasing number of “occupation-specific” skill shortages.
– There will be a general economic slowdown.
•
To avoid the economic slowdown, the province needs to
– increase international and interprovincial migration to the province,
– retain our young well-educated youth, and
– raise education levels in the population generally and the Aboriginal population
specifically.
January 2005
10
Employment Rates Need to Increase
Employment Rates in 2001, Saskatchewan,
15 to 64 Years of Age
•
In 2001, only a third of
First Nation residents in
Saskatchewan were
employed. This
compares with 59% of
Métis and 78% of the
non-Aboriginal
population.
•
Lower levels of
completed education in
the Aboriginal population
explain most of the
difference.
90%
78%
80%
70%
59%
60%
50%
40%
35%
30%
20%
10%
0%
First Nations
January 2005
Métis and other
Non-Aboriginal
11
Education is the Key
Employment Rates by Education,
Saskatchewan, 2003, 25 to 64 years
•
Employment rates are
above 80% among
those who have
completed high school
and above 85% if they
have a post-secondary
degree, certificate, or
diploma.
•
Increasing the education
levels of the
Saskatchewan
population in general
and the Aboriginal
population specifically is
the key to avoiding an
economic slowdown
because of labour
shortages.
100%
90%
85%
82%
86%
78%
80%
67%
70%
60%
50%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Less than Grade 9 to
grade 9
11
January 2005
High Incomplete Certificate Degree
school
post-sec or diploma
12
Copies
copies of this presentation and the Labour Market Trends Report
are available on:
www.sasked.gov.sk.ca
www.sasktrends.ca
for more information contact Doug Elliott at:
[email protected]