Transcript Slide 1

GTE+ Demand Scenarios vs.
Capacity Report
– Preliminary Results and Way Forward –
Chris Logue
European Policy Manager (Gas) - National Grid
Workshop
GTE+ European Ten Year Network Development Statement
Brussels, 29 April 2009
Outline
Introduction
Demand Scenarios vs. Capacity Report (DSCR)
Objective
Participating TSOs / Countries
Preliminary Results
Way forward
29 April 2009
Preliminary Results GTE+ Demand Scenarios vs. Capacity Report
2
European Network Development
Statement
• Objective
– Describe the foreseen developments of the European gas
transmission capacities for the upcoming ten years
– Analyse ability of the European gas transmission network
to meet the requirements of the European Gas Market
• Deliverables
– Capacity Development Report by November 2008
– Demand Scenarios vs. Capacity Report by July 2009
– European Ten Year Network Development Statement by
December 2009
29 April 2009
Preliminary Results GTE+ Demand Scenarios vs. Capacity Report
3
Project Timeline
2008
2009
J FMAM J J A SOND J FMAM J J A SOND
Capacity Development
Report
Demand Scenarios vs
Capacity Report
Stakeholder Dialogue
European Ten Year
Network Development
Statement
29 April 2009
Preliminary Results GTE+ Demand Scenarios vs. Capacity Report
4
Outline
Introduction
Demand Scenarios vs. Capacity Report (DSCR)
Objective
Participating TSOs / Countries
Preliminary Results
Way forward
29 April 2009
Preliminary Results GTE+ Demand Scenarios vs. Capacity Report
5
DSCR Objective
• Development of demand scenarios
– based on input received from European TSOs
and/or other European stakeholders
• Assessment of the ability of networks to
meet the requirements
• Stakeholder survey on the European level
(as part of the stakeholder dialogue)
– to receive stakeholder input to these demand
scenarios
29 April 2009
Preliminary Results GTE+ Demand Scenarios vs. Capacity Report
6
Responses received so far
• 28 TSOs
• 23 Countries
29 April 2009
Preliminary Results GTE+ Demand Scenarios vs. Capacity Report
7
Developments since
the last workshop
Feb 2009
Development TSO questionnaire
Mar 2009
TSOs work on answers
Apr 2009
Start evaluation
In parallel
•Bilateral meetings with stakeholders
•Work on other public demand scenarios
29 April 2009
Preliminary Results GTE+ Demand Scenarios vs. Capacity Report
8
Determination of
Entry Flow Requirement
National Demand
+ Calculated exit flow to other countries
- Storage deliverability
- National production deliverability
Entry flow requirement
29 April 2009
Preliminary Results GTE+ Demand Scenarios vs. Capacity Report
9
Results Bilateral Meetings with
Stakeholders
• Support from Eurogas and EU
Commission in the identification of
information sources
• GTE+ agreed to submit preliminary
compilation of data to stakeholders
– to prepare for the workshop
– to comment after the workshop
29 April 2009
Preliminary Results GTE+ Demand Scenarios vs. Capacity Report
10
Prel. Aggr. National Production
Deliverability Scenarios
30.6% decrease from 869 to 603 Mio. Nm³/day
29 April 2009
Preliminary Results GTE+ Demand Scenarios vs. Capacity Report
11
Prel. Aggr. Storage Deliverability Scenarios
24.0% increase from 690 to 856 Mio. Nm³/day
29 April 2009
Preliminary Results GTE+ Demand Scenarios vs. Capacity Report
12
Preliminary Aggregation Demand Scenarios
17.0% increase from 5,250 to 6,143 Bn. kWh/year
29 April 2009
Preliminary Results GTE+ Demand Scenarios vs. Capacity Report
13
Primes Scenarios
510
B as eline S cenario
490
High O il & G as
prices B as eline
C ons umption (Mtoe)
470
E C P ropos al
without R E S
trading
E C P ropos al with
J I/C D M & without
R E S trading
E C P ropos al with
J I/C D M & with R E S
trading
E C P ropos al with
R E S trading
450
430
410
C os t E fficiency
s cenario with
J I/C D M
C os t E fficiency
s cenario
390
370
C os t E fficiency
s cenario with high
prices
350
2005
2010
2015
2020
Y ear
29 April 2009
Preliminary Results GTE+ Demand Scenarios vs. Capacity Report
14
Preliminary Overview of Responses (1)
Country
National
Production
Storage
Demand
Deliverability (Nm³/day)
Demand (Bn
Nm³/year)
Demand (Bn
kWh/year)
Austria
X
X
X
X
X
Belgium
X
X
X
X
X
Bulgaria
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Albania
Croatia
X
Czech Rep.
X
X
X
X
Denmark
X
X
X
X
France
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Germany
Hungary
X
X
X
X
Ireland
X
X
X
X
Italy
X
X
X
X
29 April 2009
Preliminary Results GTE+ Demand Scenarios vs. Capacity Report
X
15
Preliminary Overview
of Responses (2)
Country
National
Production
Storage
Demand
Deliverability (Nm³/day)
Demand(Bn
Nm³/year)
Demand (Bn
kWh/year)
Lithuania
X
X
X
X
X
Macedonia
Montenegro
X
Poland
X
X
X
X
Serbia
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Slovakia
X
Slovenia
X
X
X
X
X
Spain
X
X
X
X
X
Sweden
X
X
X
X
The Netherl.
X
X
X
X
X
UK
X
X
X
X
X
29 April 2009
Preliminary Results GTE+ Demand Scenarios vs. Capacity Report
16
Outline
Introduction
Demand Scenarios vs. Capacity Report (DSCR)
Objective
Participating TSOs / Countries
Preliminary Results
Way forward
29 April 2009
Preliminary Results GTE+ Demand Scenarios vs. Capacity Report
17
Way Forward
• Definition of scenarios
– Derivation of replacement values
– International scenario
• Organisation of next steps for the DSCR
– Deadline for stakeholder answers on scenarios
– Intermediate bilateral meetings if necessary
29 April 2009
Preliminary Results GTE+ Demand Scenarios vs. Capacity Report
18