PowerPoint プレゼンテーション

Download Report

Transcript PowerPoint プレゼンテーション

Asia-Africa Partnerships for
Promoting Rice Research and
Development in Sub-Saharan Africa
Kei Otsuka
Chair, Board of Trustees of IRRI
Director, FASID (Foundation for Advanced
Studies on International Development)
Graduate Program, Tokyo
1
In the 1950s and the early 1960s in Asia,
population was growing rapidly, grain yield
was stagnant, and uncultivated land was being
exhausted. Therefore, there was serious fear
of future famine in Asia.
What is the difference between
contemporary SSA and tropical Asia
several decades ago?
2
Figure 1. Changes in Cereal Yield (ton/ha) in SubSaharan Africa and South/Southeast Asia
3
Sub-Saharan Africa
South & Southeast Asia
ton/haa
2
1
1995
1997
1999
2001
1993
1987
1989
1991
1979
1981
1983
1985
1977
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1965
1961
1963
0
3
What Is Green Revolution?
Development and diffusion of a series of
fertilizer-responsive, short-maturing,
non-photoperiod sensitive, high-yielding
modern varieties (MVs) in irrigated and
favorable rainfed areas.
In order to realize a GR in SSA, where rainfall is low
and unpredictable, irrigation is poorly developed,
and prices of chemical fertilizer are often
prohibitively high, we have to develop
“appropriate” rice production technologies.
4
Why Rice?
 Rice is the fastest growing crop in SSA.
 SSA is endowed with huge uncultivated
wetlands.
 Accumulated knowledge of successful rice
Green Revolution in Asia can be transferred to
SSA.
 NERICA, “miracle” upland rice, has been
already developed.
 Aside from maize, which crop should we
choose to focus on in SSA to reduce poverty?
5
Figure 2. Yield Curves of Traditional
Varieties (TVs) and Modern Varieties (MVs)
Yield/Ha
Improved MVs
& irrigation
Early MVs
TVs
Fertilizer/Ha
6
Figure 3. Changes in Rice Yield (ton/ha) in
Major Rice-Growing Countries in Tropical Asia,
5 Year Moving Averages
Tons/ha
4.5
Indonesia
4.0
Philippines
Thailand
3.5
Vietnam
3.0
Bangladesh
India
Sri Lanka
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
7
1950
1960
1970
1980
Year
1990
2000
Figure 4. Yield (ton/ha) of Improved Varieties
in the Philippines by Production Environment
4.00
Yield (tons/ha)
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
Irrigated
1.00
Rainfed
0.50
0.00
1970
Upland
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
8
Major Challenges to Realize a Green
Revolution in SSA
1. Develop high-yielding, drought–tolerant (or
early-maturing), and disease-resistant MVs
2. Establish sustainable soil nutrient
management systems
3. Promote improved water management
practices
 Do we have evidence to support the
importance of these “integrated crop
management systems” for SSA?
9
Table 1. Yield of NERICA in Uganda by
previous crop and region (t/ha)
Kijima, Sserunkuuma, and Otsuka (2006)
Previous
crops
Rice/maize
Average
2.3
Traditional
rice region
2.4
New rice
region
2.0
Leguminous
crops
Tobacco
2.8
3.2
2.0
3.3
3.3
3.3
Average
2.6
2.8
2.0
10
How to Promote NERICA?
NERICA is surprisingly high-yielding and,
hence, extremely promising.
NERICA is soil fertility-dependent (or
fertilizer-responsive)  How to manage
soil nutrients?
NERICA yield is low under severe drought
 How to manage water?
Adoption rate of NERICA is low (less than
1% in Uganda)  How to build capacity?
11
Table 2. Yield (ton/ha) of Lowland Rice in
Doho Irrigation Scheme, Uganda, in 2001
Sserunkuuma, Ochom, and Ainembabazi (2004)
Season
Average
Payers of
irrigation
fee
Payers of
irrigation
fee
First
3.6
3.8
3.4
Second
3.9
4.0
3.9
12
Table 3. Yield (t/ha) of Lowland Rice
in Côte d’Ivoire in 2000/01
Sakurai (2006)
With water supply canals
Recent MVs
(Bouaké 189 &
WARDA
varieties)
3.6
Early MVs
Without water supply canals
Recent MVs
Early MVs
(Jaya, IR5 etc.) (Bouaké 189 & (Jaya, IR5 etc.)
WARDA
varieties)
2.9
2.8
2.5
13
Prospects of Research and Development
for Lowland Rice Production in SSA
 Despite the use of early MVs and little use of
chemical fertilizer, lowland rice yield seems
high in SSA, particularly if water is properly
managed.
 Due to population pressure, massive conversion
of uncultivated wetlands to paddy fields is
taking place in SSA.
 There is huge potential in the improvement of
lowland rice technology, which will have
significant impacts on food security in SSA.
14
Concluding Remarks (1)
It is no longer a dream to realize a rice Green
Revolution in SSA, particularly if we
develop strong partnerships between IRRI,
which has successful Green Revolution
experience in Asia, and WARDA, which has
developed another “miracle rice” (i.e.,
NERICA) and established strong expertise,
reputation, and networks in SSA, in such
areas as capacity building, and development
of appropriate MVs and sustainable soil and
water management systems for SSA.
15
Concluding Remarks (2)
 We need better irrigation, credit, and
marketing systems, and improved national
R&D and extension systems in SSA.
 But such social, economic, or institutional
systems will be induced to develop, once
truly profitable technologies are developed
for this region.
 This is the most important lesson we should
learn from the successful experience in Asia.
16