Making the Most of Economic Data

Dr. Nancy Brown, FAICP, Dean of Workforce Development Center for Workforce Development Walters State Community College, Morristown, TN A Tennessee Board of Regents Institution

Walters State Community College is the administrative and program entity for the Smoky Mountains Area WIA Board

Some Economic Data Questions

Who are your customers?

How do you use data?

What other information is useful and why?

What else can you learn from economic data?

Customers: Who Are They & What Do They Need?

OCCUPATIONS IN DEMAND TARGET SECTORS INDUSTRY RECRUITING DATA AVERAGE WAGES OCCUPATIONAL DEMAND OVER TIME

SMOKY MOUNTAINS AREA \WIA BOARD & STAFF CHAMBERS & OTHER ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ORGS INDIVIDUAL BUSINESSES TRAINING PROVIDERS

Individual & summary reports on most in demand occupations & wages for career specialists and applicants

WIA CAREER CENTER STAFF

Report on projected demand and county educational attainment Data on demand for a proposed training program

COLLEGE INDUSTRY

Report on employment & unemployment in specific occupations

PROSPECT CHAMBERS SMOKY MTN AREA WIA BD

Yearly report to choose target sectors for planning and program strategy

COUNTY MAYOR

Employment & commuting patterns for single county

Using Data: Data Sources

EMSI BEA BLS CENSUS STATES RRR Nielsen Claritas

Using Data: EMSI

• • • • • • • Wide variety of data sources in one location Multi-state data in one location Fast and attractive reports Frequent updates User-friendly Open to feedback Flexible

Using Data: What’s Your BEA?

Using Data: BEA Regions & Areas

• •

BEA Regions:

8 regions: Far West, Great Lakes, Mideast, New England, Plains, Rocky Mountain, Southeast, Southwest. Have similar economic characteristics, such as : industrial composition of the labor force, demographic, social and cultural characteristics • •

BEA Economic Areas (EAs) D

efine the regional markets surrounding metropolitan or micropolitan statistical areas. Include and counties that are economically related to the metropolitan or micropolitan statistical area

Using Data: American Community Survey (ACS)

   Supplements Census data Helps determine how federal and state funds are distributed.

• • • • • • Includes: Age, sex, race, family and relationships Income and benefits, health insurance Education Veteran status, disabilities Where you work and how you get there Where you live and how much you pay for some essentials

Using Data: Who’s Included in the ACS?

• • •

Only 40% of counties have yearly data

.

Rural data is averaged over time

. This is a particular problem in big counties (primarily in the West).

Data that is averaged from 2005-2009 (as most data for rural counties is), [includes] some really good and really bad years…This may result in rural areas appearing to fare better or worse than in reality.

–

Kathy Miller, RUPRI Program Director, Rural Assistance Center, US Dept of Health & Human Services

Using Data: Building a Pipeline

Examples of Occupations

HVAC Industrial Maint Nurses, LPN Nurses, RN Police Officers Truck Drivers Welders

Trained

11 12 49 33 1 2 5

EMSI Yearly Demand

14

Considerations

Local Industry Demand 31 56 39 25 203 40 New Industry Demand Commuting Continuing Demand in 3 LWIAs Other Funding Source ITA Maximum, Retention New Industry Demand

Using Data : What about Funding a New Program?

• • • Example: Clean Energy Technology Current Demand?

– – Employment in associated occupations Number and size of CET and related businesses/industries Funding?

Sustainability?

– – Future demand for energy efficient construction and products Future demand for associated occupations

Using Data: Is it worth applying for a grant?

• • • • • • Deciding how large an area should be included Combining data from different occupations and industry categories Measuring the chance of getting a grant Documenting data sources Covering all of the data questions Combining forces with other organizations

Using Data: Choosing Target Sectors

DESCRIPTION

Offices of Physicians General Freight Trucking Plastics Product Manufacturing Depository Credit Intermediation Education and Hospitals (Local Government) Health and Personal Care Stores Colleges, Universities, and Professional Schools (Private)

AT LEAST 50+ ADDITIONAL JOBS 2012 AVG. ANNUAL WAGE $30,000+

81 67 62 58 54 59 50 $74,532 $49,618 $48,671 $46,948 $42,657 $39,139 $37,790

Other Useful Information

• • • • • • • Local business climate Community business surveys Educational initiatives Qualitative data on community goals Career center use statistics Enrollment in programs, including WIA Cultural activities

Exploring Data: An Experiment in Comparing Areas

• • • • Chose an area with similar characteristics – – Population Location Generated reports on each area’s economy Compiled data in one Excel file Identified anomalies and looked for reasons – Why are wages so much higher in one area for some occupations?

– Is there a potential gap in training that needs to be filled?

Choosing Two Areas

10 counties in E TN Tourism-oriented – Great Smoky Mountains National Park Population 455,572 (2012) – 4.1% growth, 94% white Adjacent to Knoxville, TN 10 Counties in SW NC Tourism-oriented - Great Smoky Mountains National Park Population 364,047 (2012) 4.7% growth, 90% white Adjacent to Asheville, NC

Overview of the Two Areas in Mid E TN & SW NC*

Population Counties Average Earnings

Jobs (2012)

Unemployed (4/2012)

Completions (2010)

GRP (2011)

Exports (2011)

Imports (2011)

Mid E TN

455,572 10

SW NC

364,047 10 33.669

193,462

18,339 $31,930

165,802

14,734

3,812

$9,956,779,905

4,021

$8,011,284,793

$15,566,213,647 $10,617,883,801

$19,380,262,406 $15,147,746,252

Difference

80% 0% 86%

95%

80%

105%

80%

68%

78% The mid E TN area is composed of the 10 counties in the Smoky Mountains WIA Area. The SW NC area is composed of the 10 counties in the Advantage West Partnership.

Probable Advantages of Mid E TN

• • • • • • Examples of the 24 industries in mid E TN with:   An average wage at least $10,000 more per year At least 10 openings per year : Commercial Bakeries Explosives Manufacturing Medical, Dental, and Hospital Equipment and Supplies Merchant Wholesalers - Walmart Distribution Center Colleges, Universities, and Professional Schools (Private) Lincoln Memorial University & Tusculum College Sports Teams and Clubs - Smokies baseball team

Potential Opportunities for Mid E TN

• • • • • Examples of the 16 industries in SW NC with  A n average wage at least $10,000 more per year • •  At least 10 openings per year Miscellaneous Intermediation Postharvest Crop Activities (except Cotton Ginning) Nonclay Refractory Manufacturing Golf Courses and Country Clubs Computer Systems Design Services Securities Brokerage Fabricated Structural Metal Manufacturing

Thoughts & Questions

• • • Comparison with like areas may give some clues about useful areas to pursue in workforce development Comparison with a community that is viewed as an ideal (not just similar) may be useful Many questions need to be asked, such as:  What is the reason for more employment in a specific sector?

 Are the wages in an occupation or industry attractive to the community?

 Etc., etc. etc.

Reports 101

• • • • • • • • Focus on what the customer needs Use clipping feature to combine data – avoid overlap Download into Word or Excel (if only option) Translate Excel reports into tables that match format of other data Customize the title page – – Adapt title, as needed Add contact information, graphics to further customize Insert page numbers Change page breaks, as needed Combine data sources on the last page, if there are duplicates

Lessons Learned

• • • • • Eschew obfuscation Avoid over explaining data BUT… Know the data thoroughly yourself Avoid simplifying data too much or too little – – Run and EMSI report first Add or subtract information to suit the audience/customer’s needs but… – Let the data tell the real story When using EMSI, ask the staff!

– – Give feedback on problems Make suggestions for improvements

Contact

Dr. Nancy Brown, Dean of Workforce Development Walters State Community College 500 South Davy Crockett Parkway Morristown, TN 37813 423-318-2709 (Phone) 423-585-8789 (Fax) [email protected]

The Center for Workforce Development at Walters State Community College is the administrative entity for the WIA program, which is funded under an agreement with the Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development. Walters State is an equal opportunity employer and provider of employment and training services. The College does not discriminate on the basis of race, color, religion, national origin, sex, sexual orientation or gender identity, disability, age, political affiliation, or belief. Auxiliary aids and services are available upon request to persons with disabilities .