Transcript Revised MDG monitoring framework

Workshop on MDG Monitoring
Kampala, Uganda, 5-8 May 2008
Reconciling international and
national sources for effective
global monitoring
Francesca Perucci
United Nations Statistics Division
DESA, New York
Reconciling international and national sources
for effective global monitoring
Outline
1. Global monitoring and the work by the Interagency and Expert Group on MDGs indicators
(IAEG)
2. Compilation of international sources
3. Improving international sources and resolving
data gaps and discrepancies
4. Next steps
Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Kampala, Uganda, 5-8 May 2008
Reconciling international and national sources
for effective global monitoring
Outline
1. Global monitoring and the work by the Interagency and Expert Group on MDGs indicators
(IAEG)
2. Compilation of international sources
3. Improving international sources and resolving
data gaps and discrepancies
4. Next steps
Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Kampala, Uganda, 5-8 May 2008
IAEG on MDG Indicators
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The Inter-Agency and Expert Group (IAEG) on MDG Indicators (2
meetings per year)
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Coordinated by UN Statistics Division/DESA
Composed of representatives from:
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Over 25 specialized agencies,
UN Regional commissions,
National Statistical Offices
Thematic sub-groups of the IAEG
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Gender
Employment
Health
Poverty and hunger
Environment
Slums
Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Kampala, Uganda, 5-8 May 2008
IAEG and MDG monitoring
IAEG is responsible for:
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Compiling data and undertaking analysis to monitor progress
towards the MDGs at the global and regional levels;
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Reporting on status of annual progress through printed
reports, progress charts, databases, etc.;
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Reviewing and preparing guidelines on methodologies and
technical issues related to the indicators;
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Helping define priorities and strategies to support countries in
data collection, analysis and reporting on MDGs.
Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Kampala, Uganda, 5-8 May 2008
Reconciling international and national sources
for effective global monitoring
Outline
1. Global monitoring and the work by the Interagency and Expert Group on MDGs indicators
(IAEG)
2. Compilation of international sources
3. Improving international sources and resolving
data gaps and discrepancies
4. Next steps
Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Kampala, Uganda, 5-8 May 2008
Revised MDG monitoring framework:
proposals by the IAEG
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To ensure comparability across countries and regions,
data used for the global monitoring are compiled by
international agencies within their area of expertise
For each indicator, one or more agencies were
designated to be the official data providers and to take
the lead in developing appropriate methodologies for
data collection and analysis.
Data are typically drawn from official statistics provided
by governments to the international agencies
responsible for the indicator, through periodic data
collection from ministries and NSOs (ex. ILO)….
or collected through surveys sponsored and carried out
by international agencies (ex. MICS, DHS)
Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Kampala, Uganda, 5-8 May 2008
Data provided by the international agencies
Indicator/series
Agency
MDGs
Other
Total
FAO
4
1
5
ILO
5
16
21
IPU
1
3
4
5
(a) compiling data for the3
8
global/regional monitoring
of MDGs7
8
ITU
OECD
15
UNAIDS
1
5
6
UNEP-Ozone
1
1
2
UNEP-WCMC
2
5
7
UNESCO
6
10
16
UNFCCC (CDIAC)
6
0
6
UN-HABITAT
1
1
2
17
7
24
UNPD
3
5
8
WB
7
4
11
WHO
9
2
11
WTO
5
0
5
79
72
151
UNICEF
17
Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Kampala, Uganda, 5-8 May 2008
Data compilation: from national sources to
the MDG database
International
agency
country
office
Line Ministry
in the
country
National
Statistical
Office in the
country
Agency
Headquarters
eg. UNICEF
MDG Indicators
database
Agency
Headquarters
eg. UNESCO
60 MDG indicators +
background/additional
indicators
192 Member States
1990-2007
mdgs.un.org
Agency
Headquarters
eg. ILO
Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Kampala, Uganda, 5-8 May 2008
Data availability in international sources
Countries with at least
1 data point
Countries with at least 2
data points
Number
%
Number
%
70
43
57
35
Children under 5 moderately or severely underweight
113
69
72
44
Total net enrolment ratio in primary education
137
84
123
75
Literacy rates
109
67
63
39
Share of women in wage employment in the non-agricultural
sector
149
91
100
61
Children under five mortality rate per 1,000 live births
138
85
138
85
Maternal mortality ratio per 100,000 live births
133
82
131
80
People living with HIV, 15-49 years old
98
60
98
60
Condom use at last high-risk sex, women
48
29
22
13
Contraceptive use
111
68
82
50
Tuberculosis death rate per 100,000 population
155
95
155
95
Proportion of the population using improved sanitation
140
86
104
64
Slum population as percentage of urban
106
65
105
64
Indicator
Population below $1 (PPP) per day
Source: MDG Indicators Database, at mdgs.un.org
Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Kampala, Uganda, 5-8 May 2008
But where are the data from?
Indicator
Countries with at least
1 data point
Countries with at least 2
data points
Number
%
Number
%
Population below $1 (PPP) per day
Modelled for 16
Children under 5 moderately or severely underweight
countries
70
43
57
35
113
69
72
44
Total net enrolment ratio in primary education
137
84
123
75
Literacy rates
109
67
63
39
Share of women in wage employment in the non-agricultural
sector
Modelled for 68
countries
Children under five mortality rate per 1,000 live
births
149
91
100
61
138
85
138
85
Maternal mortality ratio per 100,000 live births
133
82
131
80
People living with HIV, 15-49 years old
98
60
98
60
Condom use at last high-risk sex, women
48
29
22
13
Contraceptive use
111
68
82
50
Tuberculosis death rate per 100,000 population
155
95
155
95
Proportion of the population using improved sanitation
140
86
104
64
Slum population as percentage of urban
106
65
105
64
Source: MDG Indicators Database, at mdgs.un.org
Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Kampala, Uganda, 5-8 May 2008
Different types of data in international
data sources
Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Kampala, Uganda, 5-8 May 2008
An example: ILO, Indicator for Goal 3
Indicator 11. Share of women in wage employment in
the non-agricultural sector
Estimated values vs. Predicted values
a)
i.
ii.
iii.
iv.
v.
Estimations based on auxiliary variables
Total paid employment
Total employment in non-agriculture
Employees
Total employment
Economically Active Population in nonagriculture
Empirical analysis shows that strong correlation exits
between the indicator and the auxiliary variables.
Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Kampala, Uganda, 5-8 May 2008
An example: ILO, Indicator for Goal 3
Indicator 11. Share of women in wage employment in
the non-agricultural sector
Estimated values vs. Predicted values
b) Predictions based on statistical models
1. Only in order to produce regional and global
aggregates
2. A separate two-level model is developed for each of
the 5 regions, considering:
i. between-countries variation over time,
ii. within-country variation over time.
3. Based on the assumption that available data are
representative of a country’s deviation from the
average trend in its region, across time .
Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Kampala, Uganda, 5-8 May 2008
Reconciling international and national sources
for effective global monitoring
Outline
1. Global monitoring and the work by the Interagency and Expert Group on MDGs indicators
(IAEG)
2. Compilation of international sources
3. Improving international sources and resolving
data gaps and discrepancies
4. Next steps
Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Kampala, Uganda, 5-8 May 2008
Improving international sources
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Recommendations of the friends of the Chair to
improve further the compilation of the indicators used in
the monitoring of the MDGs.
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In July 2006, the Economic and Social Council adopted
its resolution 2006/6 on strengthening statistical
capacity in countries and included a set of
recommendations to improve the coverage,
transparency and reporting on all indicators.
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Since then, the Inter-Agency and Expert Group has
been working to implement the recommendations of the
friends of the Chair and those contained in the
ECOSOC resolution.
Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Kampala, Uganda, 5-8 May 2008
Work of the IAEG
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Improve data quality and transparency of methods
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Work with countries to identify priorities in national
statistical capacity building
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Work with countries to identify best practices for
coordination within national statistical systems and for
reporting mechanisms to the international statistical
system
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Address key methodological issues, including the use of
population figures, in the computation of the indicators
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Develop improve training tools on the compilation of the
indicators
Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Kampala, Uganda, 5-8 May 2008
Resolving data discrepancies
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Improve consistency and transparency in reporting and presenting
data and metadata for the international monitoring.
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adoption of the common platform for data exchange, the Statistical Data
and Metadata Exchange (SDMX)
continue to improve the content and structure of the metadata and the
tools available on the mdgs.un.org website
The IAEG also recommended:
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To investigate the reasons for discrepancies between national and
international data, and for data gaps
To hold expert group meetings to establish strategies for dealing with
data discrepancies and data gaps at the national and international
levels.
To provide technical assistance to countries in the use of international
definitions.
To improve the process of consultation by international agencies with
countries before publishing their data.
Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Kampala, Uganda, 5-8 May 2008
Improve transparency in the MDG Indicators Database
Revised structure of metadata for MDG Indicators in the IAEG MDG
Database
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UNSD MDG database to
present more detailed
metadata
CONTACT POINT in international agency
DEFINITION
METHODS OF COMPUTATION
– details on methodology used
to calculate indicators
– contacts for users to contact
to obtain additional
information
COMMENTS AND LIMITATIONS
SOURCES OF DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN
GLOBAL AND NATIONAL FIGURES
PROCESS OF OBTAINING DATA
TREATMENT OF MISSING VALUES
DATA AVAILABILITY
REGIONAL AND GLOBAL ESTIMATES
EXPECTED TIME OF RELEASE
Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Kampala, Uganda, 5-8 May 2008
Reconciling international and national sources
for effective global monitoring
Outline
1. Global monitoring and the work by the Interagency and Expert Group on MDGs indicators
(IAEG)
2. Compilation of international sources
3. Improving international sources and resolving
data gaps and discrepancies
4. Next steps
Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Kampala, Uganda, 5-8 May 2008
Work of the IAEG
●
The main objectives of the work of the group
remain:
a) improving the effectiveness of capacity building activities;
and
b) ensuring data quality and transparency, and reduce data
gaps.
Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Kampala, Uganda, 5-8 May 2008
Work of the IAEG
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Improving the effectiveness of capacity building
activities
The group brings together international agencies,
regional commissions and representatives of national
statistical systems to set priorities and identify ways to
improve the delivery of capacity building programmes
and promote the scaling-up of resources.
Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Kampala, Uganda, 5-8 May 2008
Work of the IAEG
● Ensuring data quality and transparency
Priority areas:
 Implement the recommendations by the friend of the Chair on MDG
Indicators and those in the ECOSOC resolution
 Implement the recommendations by IAEG member countries in
2006 on coordination and reporting mechanisms (Survey to
countries and agencies on coordination and reporting)
 Address some key methodological issues, including the use of population
figures in the computation of the indicators and regional aggregates.
 Continuing to improve the content and structure of the metadata and the
tools available on the website.
•SDMX task team to develop the data structure for MDG
Indicators
•revision of the handbook for country reporting
•revision of the metadata on international series and upgrading
of the database
Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Kampala, Uganda, 5-8 May 2008
Work of the IAEG
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Reducing data gaps
The group has developed a plan to involve more
extensively regional commissions in data checking
purposes (discrepancies between national and
international data series) and in channelling and
following-up on specific queries on data and metadata
between national statistical systems and international
agencies
The plan also involves identifying underlying causes for
data gaps and make specific recommendations for
improvement
Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Kampala, Uganda, 5-8 May 2008
Next steps
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Continue to develop the data structure for SDMX
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Develop new methodologies for the assessment of
progress
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International agencies
Countries
Global and regional level
Country level
Continue the work to assist countries develop their
system of coordination and reporting to the international
statistical system
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Revise questionnaire
Expand the survey
Workshops and EGMs on coordination practices
Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Kampala, Uganda, 5-8 May 2008
Reconciling international and national sources
for effective global monitoring
THANK YOU
Visit mdgs.un.org
Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Kampala, Uganda, 5-8 May 2008