Transcript Slide 1

Reconciling Asymmetric Bilateral Trade Statistics
In the Construction of Global SUTs
Presented
by
Lin Jones
Zhi Wang
International Conference on
Measurement of Trade and Economic Globalization
Aguascalientes, Mexico
October 1, 2014
The presentation is not meant to represent in any way the views of U.S. International Trade
Commission, or any of its individual commissioner.
Agenda
• Problems of Proportional Adjustment
• Weighted Adjustment by Reporter Reliability
Index
2
Problems of Proportional Adjustment in
National Income Account
(Components of U.S. GDP, 2002, US$ in Billion)
GDI Components
Compensation of employees
Indirect businesss tax and nontax liability
Private consumption of fixed capital
Nonfarm proprietors' income
Net interest
Corporate profits
Businesss transfer payments
Rental income of persons
Subsidies
Farm proprietors' income
Sum
Gross domestic product
Difference
Value
5977.4
800.4
1163.9
743.7
684.2
787.4
44.1
142.4
32.5
12.9
10388.9
10446.2
57.3
Value Adjustment
Share by proportion
0.575
32.97
0.077
4.41
0.112
6.42
0.072
4.10
0.066
3.77
0.076
4.34
0.004
0.24
0.014
0.79
0.003
0.18
0.001
0.07
1
57.30
CV
0.95
2.31
3.56
3.74
5.86
8.35
19.86
23.45
26.51
48.89
3
Problems of Proportional Adjustment in
International Trade Statistics
(China & Hong Kong reported exports and partner reported imports, 2004, $ in Million)
China
reported
Exports to
Partner
country
Hong Kong
reported
domestic
exports to
partner country
China reexports to
partner
country via
Hong Kong
Partner country
reported
imports from
China and Hong
Kong
Statistical discrepancy
%
Malta
273
5
20
92
-200.4
Russia
9,102
119
361
4,744
-110.4
Korea
27,810
2,111
2,832
32,853
-1.8
Japan
73,222
4,268
11,977
94,911
3.4
Partner
Country
4
Alternative:
Weighted Adjustment with Reporter Reliability
• An indicator of reporter reliability is a measure of how
consistent a country reports its trade statistics relative to all its
trading partners.
• The indicator needs to address three issues:
– The difference of reporting countries in reported bilateral trade;
– What should be captured by the measure;
– Sector- and country-specific reliability information for each country as
an exporter and importer.
• The indicator should be able to capture the strength and
weakness of a country’s ability to consistently report its trade
for each end use categories in different commodities.
5
Reporter Reliability Index (RRI)
• Gehlhar (1996) developed the Reporter Reliability Index, which
was also used in Wang et al. (2010), and Tsigas et. Al. (2012).
• RRI is calculated as the share of accurately reported trade in a
reporter’s total trade for a particular end use category in a sector
using a threshold level (e.g. less than 20 percent discrepancies in
mirrored data).
• Constructing RRI uses all available bilateral trade data and assesses
reporter reliability from a complete set of global reporting partners.
• It has a value between 0 and 1. The larger the value is, the relatively
more reliable the reporting country is in reporting trade statistics.
• Using RRI will encourage the reconciliation model to adjust those
unreliable data more than those reliable ones in the reconciliation
process.
6
Average Exporter Relative Reliability Index
(1995-2007, China)
Commodity
MEAN
CV
MIN MAX
Food and beverages (15)
0.81
0.06
0.71
0.88
Chemicals (24)
0.78
0.12
0.63
0.88
Basic metals (27)
0.72
0.17
0.46
0.89
Wood and products (20)
0.60
0.39
0.29
0.87
Paper and paper products (21)
0.53
0.31
0.22
0.80
Wearing apparel (18)
0.24
0.56
0.04
0.42
Rubber and plastic products (25)
0.14
0.65
0.07
0.39
Auto and Parts (34)
0.09
1.08
0.02
0.36
Leather products (19)
0.09
0.24
0.05
0.14
Electrical machinery (31)
0.07
1.09
0.03
0.33
7
Average Importer Relative Reliability Index
(1995-2007, the United States)
Commodity
MEAN
CV
MIN MAX
Auto and Parts (34)
0.95
0.02
0.92
0.97
Wood products (20)
0.92
0.05
0.83
0.97
Machinery and equipment (29)
0.91
0.06
0.77
0.97
Paper and paper products (21)
0.91
0.06
0.79
0.95
Food and beverages (15)
0.85
0.04
0.80
0.90
Textiles (17)
0.55
0.19
0.39
0.71
Wearing apparel (18)
0.54
0.10
0.43
0.61
Tobacco products (16)
0.50
0.34
0.17
0.71
Leather products (19)
0.30
0.34
0.16
0.48
Printed and recorded matter (22)
0.16
0.60
0.05
0.40
8
1.0
0.8
3.0
Average Exporter Relative Reliability Index
Basic Metal (ISIC 27), 1995-2007, WIOD countries
2.5
2.0
0.6
1.5
0.4
1.0
0.5
0.0
0.0
DEU
ITA
ESP
SVN
PRT
CZE
BGR
MEX
FRA
CAN
SVK
AUT
POL
HUN
JPN
SWE
FIN
ROM
CHN
TUR
KOR
BRA
LUX
GRC
GBR
NLD
DNK
IND
IDN
BEL
ROW
LVA
USA
AUS
IRL
MLT
LTU
EST
CYP
RUS
TWN
0.2
MEAM
1.0
CV
Average Importer Relative Reliability Index
Basic Metal (ISIC 27), 1995-2007, WIOD Countries
3.0
2.5
0.8
2.0
0.6
1.5
0.4
1.0
0.2
0.5
0.0
DNK
POL
USA
FRA
CAN
AUT
CZE
ESP
IRL
PRT
BGR
RUS
LUX
SVN
HUN
SWE
LTU
DEU
FIN
SVK
BRA
JPN
GRC
GBR
KOR
ITA
AUS
ROM
MLT
LVA
BEL
NLD
ROW
CYP
IDN
EST
TUR
CHN
MEX
IND
TWN
0.0
9
0.0
0.8
0.0
MEX
CAN
HRV
MAC
TUN
PRT
PER
MLT
BRA
SVN
PRY
POL
THA
BLZ
MKD
MYS
ROM
URY
ISL
ISR
IRL
ITA
ESP
TTO
MUS
KOR
HUN
ARG
TUR
EST
MAR
FRA
SVK
BOL
IND
MWI
IDN
CZE
LTU
CHL
COL
AUS
NZL
SLV
GRD
LVA
UGA
JPN
FIN
DEU
AUT
GBR
USA
ECU
GTM
NOR
GRC
CHN
NLD
DZA
CHE
LCA
CYP
VCT
CIV
SYC
ZMB
SWE
DNK
MDG
NER
NIC
HND
CRI
GRL
OMN
HKG
PAN
EGY
SGP
BDI
MDV
0.8
PRT
TUN
CHL
ISR
GRC
SWE
JPN
ITA
ARG
GBR
URY
CYP
CHE
MDV
USA
HUN
DNK
ECU
KOR
DEU
MLT
ESP
FRA
CAN
SLV
LTU
NLD
CZE
MKD
EST
GRD
ZMB
OMN
TUR
UGA
BRA
SVK
SYC
AUT
MUS
HRV
CRI
IRL
FIN
MEX
SDN
LVA
VEN
PER
IND
MDG
ROM
GRL
LCA
BDI
PRY
GTM
MAR
AUS
SGP
THA
SVN
NZL
NER
CAF
ISL
NOR
TTO
MAC
CMR
CIV
MYS
GMB
IDN
HKG
POL
TZA
BOL
BLZ
HND
COM
NIC
COL
DZA
CHN
1.0
4.0
Average Exporter Relative Reliability Index
Wearing Apparel (ISIC 18), 1995-2007, GTAP countries
0.2
1.0
Average Importer Relative Reliability Index
Wearing Apparel (ISIC 18), 1995-2007, GTAP countries
0.2
MEAN
CV
3.0
0.6
2.0
0.4
1.0
0.0
4.0
3.0
0.6
2.0
0.4
1.0
0.0
10
Source
• Gehlhar (1996). “Reconciling Bilateral Trade Data for
Use in GTAP.”
• Wang, Gehlhar, and Yao (2010). “A Globally Consistent
Framework for Reliability-based Trade Statistics
Reconciliation in the Presence of an Entrepot.”
• Tsigas, Wang, and Gehlhar (2012). “How a Global InterCountry Input-Output Table with Processing Trade
Account Can be Constructed from GTAP Database.”
11
Thank You!
12