Transcript MSC’s HUB Focus

Meteorological Service of
Canada’s Hub Airport Focus
Merv Jamieson
NAV CANADA Account Manager
Meteorological Service of Canada
(MSC)
May 12, 2009 – ATOCC CDM
MSC’s Hub Focus
• Existing
• Has there been an improvement?
• New changes - CMAC-E Toronto Desk
CMAC Hub Focus
• In late 2006, the two Canadian
Meteorological Aviation Centres (CMACs)
adjusted their forecast operations to
provide a greater focus on the major Hub
airports (CYYZ, CYVR, CYUL & CYYC) in
Canada and their most frequently used
alternates
CMAC Hub Focus
• CMAC-E (Montreal)
– Created a desk whose primary purpose was
to focus on the TAFs in the Windsor to
Montreal corridor, staffed by experienced
forecasters
– Distributed remaining TAFs amongst the other
desks
– Contributed to the GFA but was not an active
participant
CMAC Hub Focus
• CMAC-W (Edmonton)
– For the forecasters focusing on the CYVR and
CYYC areas reduced the:
• area of responsibility,
• degree of involvement in the GFA and
• number of TAFs
– Adopted experience and training criteria for
the forecasters looking after the Hubs
– Distributed remaining TAFs amongst some of
the other desks
Has the focus on the Hubs led to
an improvement?
Has the focus on the Hubs led to
an improvement?
Greater Focus on Toronto
• Users and NAV CANADA have requested a greater focus on
Toronto/Pearson
• Toronto Desk
– Created on January 19, 2009
– Staffed Monday to Friday between 6am and 4pm ET by small team of
senior Forecasters
– Focused on CYYZ, CYKZ and CYTZ TAFs, writing the CYYZ TAF
Forecaster Notes (TAFPlus) and the NOC teleconferences
– Focus on key alternates still handled by Hub Desk 24/7.
– Toronto Desk duties handled by Hub Desk during off-hours
– Should result in fewer “surprises”
– Allows a focus on detailed changes and proactive amendments
– When not working the Toronto desks, other members of the team are
conducting Toronto specific case studies, training
Greater Focus on Toronto
• On April 1, 2009 combined the Toronto
Desk with the Collaborative Convective
Forecast Product (CCFP) desk
– 24/7 coverage
– Focus on TAFs for CYYZ, CYHM, CYXU and
TAF Forecaster Note for CYYZ and the CCFP
• Plan to re-establish the Toronto desk in the
fall after the end of the CCFP.
Summary, next steps
• This change has been accomplished by tapping funding
and a redistribution of workload; i.e. within resources
• It could be made permanent, if desired
• This approach could be expanded; however, this would
require additional funding
–
–
–
–
Expand winter operation from 5 to 7 days
Make program similar year-round
Expand program to other hubs
Create specific products
• Areal product covering the bed posts (the TCA)
• Probabilistic TAF
• A year-round “CCFP” (i.e. a winter product focussing on winter
issues)
• Client and user feedback is important
Hub Critical Winds
Merv Jamieson
NAV CANADA Account Manager
Meteorological Service of Canada
(MSC)
May 12, 2009 – ATOCC CDM
MSC’s Hub Focus
– Hub Efficiency Project
– Hub Critical Winds
– Hub Situational Awareness
Hub Efficiency Project
• In 2008, MSC (Tim Guezen) began work on
meteorological factors affecting Airport
Efficiency, with the idea offering a “Forecast
Airport Acceptance Rate”.
• While this project had promise, the complexities
involved prevented this idea from moving
forward into the ‘Public Forum’
• We are taking advantage of the information that
was gathered
Hub Critical Winds
• Hub Efficiency work gave detailed knowledge of
the critical wind speeds and directions affecting
runway operations at the major Hubs in Canada
• CMAC aviation weather forecasters are now
using this information to more carefully consider
wind forecast values in TAFs
– Supports the more efficient movement of aircraft
• Information may be used for the development of
new TAF amendment recommendations for the
major Hubs
Consider the Wind Direction in the following METARs....
CYYZ 151200Z 33012G17KT 15SM BKN017 BKN100 13.0/10.1 A2982 RMK SC6AC2 SLP097 52040 SKY99=
CYYZ 151252Z 34011G20KT 15SM -DZ BKN015 BKN023 BKN080 12.9/ RMK SC5SC2AC1 PCPN VRY LGT
SKY99=
CYYZ 151300Z 34015G20KT 15SM -DZ SCT018 BKN027 BKN080 13.2/10.2 A2985 RMK SC3SC3AC1 PCPN
VRY LGT SLP109 SKY99=
CYYZ 151312Z 33014KT 15SM FEW025 BKN030 BKN080 13.4/ RMK CU2SC4AC1 SKY99=
CYYZ 151400Z 33011G19KT 15SM FEW018 BKN030 BKN120 14.7/10.1 A2987 RMK CF2SC4AC1 CU ASOCTD
SLP116 SKY88=
…and the following TAF that was issued…
CYYZ 151440Z 151512 32015G25KT P6SM BKN030 TEMPO 1517 BKN020
FM2100Z 32015KT P6SM FEW030 BECMG 2224 34010KT BECMG 0204 30007KT
RMK NXT FCST BY 18Z=
…and the METARs that followed.
CYYZ 151500Z
SKY99=
CYYZ 151600Z
CYYZ 151700Z
CYYZ 151800Z
CYYZ 151900Z
CYYZ 152000Z
35011G18KT 15SM SCT023 BKN030 14.7/9.6 A2992 RMK SC3SC4 CU ASOCTD SLP131 52033
34014KT
31016KT
33013KT
32012KT
32015KT
15SM
15SM
15SM
15SM
15SM
FEW024
FEW022
FEW022
FEW025
FEW030
BKN029
BKN026
BKN030
BKN030
BKN037
14.9/9.6 A2995 RMK CU2SC5 SLP142 SKY99=
15.3/9.6 A2996 RMK CU2SC6 SLP147 SKY99=
16.3/10.9 A2998 RMK CU2SC4 SLP153 52022 SKY88=
16.7/10.2 A2999 RMK CU2SC4 SLP157 SKY88=
15.5/8.9 A3001 RMK CU1SC6 SLP164 SKY99=
Meteorologically speaking, a good wind forecast, and according to
MANAIR criteria doesn’t require amending.
Could we improve on it knowing the following about CYYZ?
We can plot where the 15Z TAF puts the forecast
wind and see how it implies a triple 23/24R/24L
operation.
Note: all runway decisions use gust strength when gusts
are present.
This is very near a “triple point” on the chart so
runway selection will be sensitive to slight changes
in the wind forecast, that is:
• A strengthening will put them on the double
33R/33L operation.
• More northward will keep them on the triples,
but from the opposite direction (05/06R/06L).
Next, note where the 11-14Z METARs put the
observed winds. The winds remained generally
from this NNWLY direction for a number of hours
before become more NWLY around 19Z.
If we “knew” the winds would back to around 310-320 degrees from the observed 330-350, and recognized the
implication on the terminal, we might consider writing the TAF differently:
CYYZ 151440Z 151512 34015G25KT P6SM BKN030 TEMPO 1517 BKN020
FM2100Z 32015KT P6SM FEW030 BECMG 2224 34010KT BECMG 0204 30007KT
RMK NXT FCST BY 18Z=
By starting with the observed value, then forecasting the change (as slight as it may have seemed, it was significant in
this case) adds value at these critical wind thresholds (where colours border on the graphic).
New Tools – TAF Wind Reference Material
TAF CYYZ 071138Z 071212 11010KT P6SM SCT120
FM1500Z 20008KT P6SM BKN100
FM1700Z 22015G25KT P6SM BKN080
BECMG 1820 22020G30KT
FM2300Z 22025G35KT P6SM OVC070
BECMG 2301 22015G25KT
FM0100Z 22015G25KT P6SM -SHRA OVC030 TEMPO 0204 6SM -SHRA BR
OVC020
BECMG 0203 28008G18KT
FM0400Z 31010G20KT P6SM OVC025 TEMPO 0405 P6SM -SHRA
BECMG 1012 34010G20KT
RMK NXT FCST BY 15Z=
Overlaying forecast wind vectors from the valid TAF can improve
forecaster situational awareness with respect to the impact of the wind
forecast on ANS operations.
TAF Amendment Criteria - Winds
•
MANAIR (Canada)
– Speed (2 minute mean)
• Observed speed 2X(+) the
Forecast Speed and either the
observed speed or forecast speed
> 15 knots
• Observed speed 1/2X(-) the
Forecast Speed and either the
observed speed or forecast speed
> 15 knots
• Difference between the observed
and forecast speed is 20 knots or
more
– Direction
• Observed direction >= 45 degrees
from the forecast direction when
observed speed > 15 knots
– Forecaster discretion
• In the forecaster’s judgment, the
forecast conditions are no longer
representative of existing or
expected conditions
•
ICAO Annex 3 (International)
– Speed
• Difference between the observed
and forecast speed is 10 knots or
more
• Observed wind gusts 10 knots or
more than the forecast wind gusts
and observed or forecast speed
15 knots or more
– Direction
• Observed direction >= 60 degrees
from the forecast direction when
observed speed is 10 knots or
more
– Runway Usage
• Observed wind requires a change
in runway(s)-in-use or indicates a
significant tailwind or crosswind
component that was not forecast
TAF Amendment Criteria Not Always Representative
Consider observed/forecast winds around
23020KT. This implies a 23/24R/24L runway
operation.
Variation in wind direction between 330 and 140
degrees has no impact on the dry runway
operation.
Nor does a speed variation of +/- 20 KTs (as long
as it stays between 190 and 260 degrees).
While we are still obligated to amend based on
MANAIR criteria, we can do so knowing that
runway operations are continuing without issue.
In short,
•
these graphics tell us where to focus our efforts when it comes
to Hub wind forecasting!
•
illustrates how a TAF does not fully meet the needs… revisit
the wind criteria for TAF amendments or a new product?
Hub Situational Awareness
• MSC continues to investigate ways of
providing real-time information to our
forecasters which illustrates the impact of
their TAF on ‘Airport Efficiency’
• Strawdog
prototype
• Utilizes Critical
Winds to identify
most likely
runway usage
and potential
changes
• Illustrates the
potential effect of
the TAF on the
airport capacity
• Is not intended to
replace or override the decision
makers
Questions
• Have people noticed an improvement
change in forecast service?
• Is this info useful to others’ operations?