Transcript 幻灯片 1 - weigend.com

The Networked Economy: Information Management,
Strategy, and Innovation
网络经济:信息管理, 战略, 和创新
(2)
Introduction: The
Networked Economy
网络经济概述
© people & data | www.weigend.com
Andreas S. Weigend, Ph.D. 韦思岸教授
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The internet began 1969 as project of US military
互联网始创于1969年美国军方项目
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The internet and the web
因特网和万维网
1969: First message exchanged
1969年：第一次信息交换

Also: First human on Moon (US), Year 3 of Cultural Revolution (China)
同时：美国首次登月、中国文化大革命进入第三年
1979: US Postal Service rejected e-mail
1979年：美国邮政总局拒绝开放电子邮件
1989: World Wide Web created at CERN (European physics lab)
1989年：万维网诞生于欧洲粒子物理实验室CERN

The World Wide Web (WWW, “the web”) are applications that run on the
internet and the data these applications access
万维网（简称三W或网络）由互联网上运行的应用程序组成
1993: Technology/ First web browser
1993年：出现网络浏览器
2003: Business model/ Paid search (“sponsored links”, keyword advertising) takes off
2003年：竞价排名的“付费链接和关键字广告”出现
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What is the internet?
什么是互联网？

A very large collection of computers
极为庞大的电脑集合
that are connected to each other
所有电脑相互连接
that follow a common protocol (“speak the same language”)
并遵循共同的传输协议（“说同一种语言”)


Transmission Control Protocol (TCP) / Internet Protocol (IP)
传输控制协议/互联网协议
Key concept
重要概念
Packet-switching
数据包交换
vs circuit-switching
电路交换
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Internet adoption compared to other media (in US)
比较网络和其它媒体的普及速度（美国）
Years to reach 50M users / households:
达到五千万用户／家庭需要几年
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E-business vs Nasdaq (reflecting expectations of investors and speculators)
比较电子商务和纳斯达克(反映投资者与投机者的期望)
USD
trillion
(approx.)
万亿美元
4
3
2
1
(1)-6
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Size of e-Business (B2C)
估算B2C数量级
•

B2C: Business to Consumer
B2C：商业机构对消费者
Size of e-business
全球电子商务规模
•

1 billion participants
十亿人参与
Number of customers: 10 – 100
million
消费者数量：壹千万至壹亿
On average USD 1k per year per
customer
平均每人每年消费壹千美元
Total = USD1 trillion (1012) per year
总计每年十万亿(1012)美元


Comparable to worldwide IT capital
expenses
相比于全球IT资本
GDP China USD 2 trillion / year
同时相比于中国每年2万亿美元GDP
Major e-business firms
大型电子商务企业
New customers per day: 10k -100k
新增消费者：每天壹万至十万

B2C only small fraction of e-business
网上零售仅占电子商务的一小部分
Wal-Mart: USD 250 billion annual
turnover
沃尔玛年营业额2500亿美元
Most of it passes through B2B systems
大部分为B2B
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Daily rates: Atoms vs Bits
每日数据比较（现实与网络）

Physical world
现实世界

Hotels (US)
旅馆（美国）

Web searches
搜索
1 million bodies in beds / day
每天100万人住宿

Airplanes (US)
航空（美国）


1 million butts in seats / day
每天100万人坐飞机

1 billion / day
每天10亿
Text messages (SMS) in China
手机短信（短信服务，仅中国）
1 million rides / day
每天100万人打的
1 million “things” per day if atoms
involved
原子世界的日均数量级为100万
1 billion / day
每天10亿
Emails
电邮
Taxi cabs (Shanghai)
出租车（上海）

Digital world
网络世界


1 billion / day
每天10亿
1 billion “things” per day if only bits
involved
比特世界的日均数量级为10亿
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Economies of scale
规模经济
Industrial Age
Information Age
•
•
工业时代
信息时代

Transport energy
传输能量

Transport information
传输信息

Production economies of scale
生产型规模经济

Network economies of scale
网络规模经济

Average price of product drops with
increased production
产量增加降低单位产品均价
Supply-side economies of scale
供应方规模经济

Network effects
网络效应

Value of network product for a member
increases with every new member
新增成员使每个成员的网络产品不断增值
Demand-side economies of scale
需求方规模经济
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Example: Online travel
举例：网上旅游

Visitors to travel sites
旅游网站的访问者
(Source: comScore Networks)
62 million unique US visitors clicked on travel sites in October 2004
2004年10月，有6200万美国人点击进入了旅游网站

Corresponds to 40 percent of the US online population (150 million users)
占美国网民数量（1.5亿）的40%
Popularity of travel-specific search engines grows
旅游业特色搜索大受欢迎

Online travel sales (Source: Jupiter)
网上旅游销售额
Year
年份
US Online Travel
Booking Revenues
美国网上旅游预定服务
收入（10亿美元）
Percentage of total US
Travel Revenues
占美国旅游总收入的比例
2003
$46 billion
20%
2004
$54 billion
23%
2005
$62 billion
26%
US: 30%
2006
$70 billion
28%
Europe: 20%
2007
$77 billion
30%
Asia: 12%
2008
$84 billion
31%
2009
$91 billion
33%
Increase about 10% per year
预计以每年增幅10%

Regional differences (2007)
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Size of e-business
电子商务规模

Online travel
网上旅游
Online sales is one third of entire
market
网上交易占整个市场30%



Online pharmacies
网上医疗
USD1 billion
10亿美元
Online dating
网上交友
USD 1 billion
10亿美元

Online trading
网上交易

Features that create addiction
为何上瘾
Online pornography
网上色情
USD 2 billion
20亿美元
Online gaming
网上游戏
USD 5 billion
50亿美元
Online gambling
网上博彩
USD 6 billion
60亿美元


Interaction
互动
Random rewards
随机奖励
World changes in absence and affects user
不上网就不能与时俱进
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What is e-business?
什么是电子商务？

E-business uses technology
电子商务利用技术
to communicate
进行交流

Find, create, aggregate, and deliver information
发现、创造、整合或传播信息
to transact
进行交易


Buy, sell, trade
购买、销售、贸易
Technology
技术

Internet and mobile communication
互联网和移动通讯
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E-business: Innovation and value creation
电子商务：创新与价值创造


Innovation in e-business:
电子商务创新思路：

Examples of value creation
价值创造的范例
Deliver value to customers
为客户提供价值
Create, find and discover knowledge
创造、寻找和发现知识
Create value from the behavior of
customers
从客户行为数据中获取价值
Deliver digital goods
传递数字商品
Areas of innovation
创新的领域
Customize and personalize
客户定制与个性化
New pricing mechanisms
新的定价机制
Product development
产品开发
Marketing
市场营销
Market research
市场调研
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Scale: Opportunity and threat
规模：机遇与威胁
•
EB technology电子商务技术
(communication, connectivity, …)
（传输、连接等……）
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Scale: Reach and Speed
规模：范围与速度
E.g., viral marketing
毒品交易

Reach
范围

Speed
速度
Need to create barriers to entry (e.g.,
lock-in)
需要制造进入壁垒（如客户锁定）
Designing system for scalability is
important
设计可测量系统十分必要
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Appendix
附录
A.
Roles in e-business and value creation
电子商务和价值创造中的角色
B.
Ingredients of e-business
电子商务的组成要素
C.
Online strategies for traditional offline stores
传统线下商店的网络战略
D.
Jeff Bezos’s Seven Myths (2000)
Jeff Bezos的七个神话（2000）
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A. Some roles in e-business
电子商务中的各种角色

Information producers
信息制造者

Advertisers
广告主

Information organizers, gatherers
信息组织者、聚合者

Publishers
广告发布商

Information consumers, buyers
信息消费者,买家

Platform providers
平台提供者
Markets
市场
Games
游戏
Providing space on website for ads
在网站上提供广告空间

Analytics companies
数据分析公司
Search engine optimization
搜索引擎最优化
Site analytics
网站数据分析
ISP (Internet Service Providers)
ISP 网络服务接入商
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Basic questions to evaluate a business model
设计盈利模式需回答的问题

How is the firm generating value for
its customers?
公司如何为客户创造价值？

Where do revenues come from?
收入来自何处？
Who pays for what value and when?
谁会为何种价值而付费？何时支付？
What are the margins in each market?
每个市场的利润是多少？

What is different about the internet?
互联网有何不同？

Are the revenue sources different
with the internet compared to
without it?
收入来源是否因互联网的有无而不同？
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Revenues
收入

Sales
销售
Fees
费用
Products
产品
Sales commissions, referral fees
销售佣金，介绍费
Services
服务
Transaction fees
交易费
Information
信息
Membership fees
会员费




Trends and analytics
趋势和分析数据
Consumer data
消费者信息
Technology and tools
技术和工具
Sell
销售
License
特许
Outsource
外包
Subscription
订阅费

Advertising
广告
Paid search
竞价排名
Measure ROI
测量投资收益率
“Advertising = fuel of Internet economy”
广告是网络经济的动力
Individual 个体
 Situation 情形

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Value created for customers
为客户创造价值

Rich product information
提供丰富的产品内容

Enable transactions
促成交易
Services (payment, fulfillment)
服务，尤其是支付服务（和履约）
Data collection and analysis
收集/分析数据
Transaction processing
处理交易

Marketing
市场营销
Including campaign management
活动管理

Platforms, e.g., for services
平台（比如服务平台）
“Mechanical Turk” by Amazon.com
亚马逊网站上的“土耳其机器人”

Intermediation vs Disintermediation
中介与非中介
Intermediate
中介

Aggregator
集成商

Infomediary
信息中介

Market maker
造市商
Disintermediate
非中介

Enable direct sales via Web
通过网络直接销售
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B. Ingredients of EB
电子商务要素

Some ingredients of EB
电子商务的组成要素
1. Search
搜索
2. Pricing
定价
3. Logistics
物流
4. Payment
支付
5. Product representation
产品展示
6. Authentication and security
验证及安全
7. Dispute resolution
争端解决

Some EB technologies and tools
电子商务相关技术及工具
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1. Search
搜索
Past: Information scarce
过去：信息稀缺
Present: Information abundant
现在：信息丰富

Need for search
需要搜索

Need for ranking (by relevance)
需要排序（关联度）

Use additional information sources
in algorithm
算法中需使用额外信息
Connectivity of web pages (link
structure)
网页的连接（链接结构）
Current location of user (geo-location)
用户的当前位置
Search-history of user
用户的搜索历史

Web search engines
搜索引擎
E.g., Google, Baidu. Sogul
如：Google、百度，搜狗

Vertical search 垂直搜索
E.g., Travel, Product comparison…
如：旅游，商品比价搜索
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2. Pricing
定价
Variety of pricing mechanisms
不同的定价机制
•

Fixed prices
固定价格

Dynamic pricing
动态定价
Based on inventory
基于存货
Based on competition
基于竞争对手

Price-discovery
价格发现
Auctions
竞拍
Exchanges (similar to financial markets)
交易所定价（类似金融市场）

Buyer-set price
买方定价
•
“You name the price” – Priceline.com
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3. Logistics
物流
Information products:
Physical products:
•
•
信息产品：
实物产品：

Delivery is easy because product is
digital
产品以数字形式存在则物流简便

Storage is easy
存储简便

Better coordination with suppliers to
reduce inventory
加强与供应商合作以减少库存

Outsource inventory
外包库存（如亚马逊）
Shift inventory risk to supplier
向供应商转移库存风险

Note: Physical goods need physical
delivery
注：实物产品总要依赖实际的递送服
务
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Nr of packages per day (millions)
包裹数量/天（百万）
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Majority of shipments to homes are e-business
送货上门：大都源自电子商务
网上零售包裹增长
传统渠道居民包裹
＝2.33M (1999)
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4. Payment
支付

Credit and debit cards
信用卡和借记卡
Main payment method in US
美国目前主要的支付方法

Direct payment between parties using web and email (e.g., PayPal, AliPay)
买卖方之间通过网络和电邮直接支付（如贝宝、阿里巴巴支付宝）

e-Cash (stored value cards)
电子货币（储值卡）

Mobile phone payments
手机支付

Charge on delivery (COD)
货到付款
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5. Product representation
产品展示
How are product attributes communicated?
如何展示产品特点？

The Web has its strengths…
网络优点



Great for information, especially standardized
有利于信息传递，特别是标准化信息
… but of course also its weaknesses: It is a rather limited medium
网络作为媒介尚有局限

Limited for multimedia (bandwidth)
不利于多媒体传输（带宽）

Impossible for touch, taste, smell
不可触摸、品尝、嗅闻
Problems with limited product representation
产品展示不充分导致：

Misinformation
误传

Misunderstandings
误会

Mistrust
猜疑
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6. Authentication, Legitimization
验证交易合法

Validity of transacting parties and of
exchanged goods
确认交易各方和交易商品有效性
Reliability
可靠性
Quality
质量

People-intensive solution
人工验证

When is a transaction considered
valid?
什么情况下交易是有效的？
Does a sale go through at the mouse
click or only after the processing?
点击鼠标时即完成销售还是待订单处理
完毕？
Alibaba trust-pass: Visit seller and verify
阿里巴巴诚信通

Technological solution
技术解决方案
Public-key cryptography
公钥密码
Reputation, rating, reviews
名誉、评级、评论

Experts
通过专家
(Gomez、消费者报告)

Community
通过社区
(epinions, eBay, Openratings.com)
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7. Dispute resolution
争端解决
Legal issues
法律问题

What happens in disputes between buyer and seller?
买卖双方发生争端怎么办？
In particular, at intermediaries like eBay?
尤其是通过eBay等网络中介完成的交易？

International bodies for dispute resolution?
国际争端解决机构
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C. Adding online capabilities to an offline “brick and mortar” business
增加非网络实体企业的网络能力

Benefits for bricks and mortar
retailers
给传统零售商所能带来的利益
Improved inventory turnover
改善库存周转
Capture data in addition to point of
sales data
增加销量
New customer acquisition
opportunities through the web
获取新客户
Target promotions and pricing
有针对性的推广和定价
Test market new products and offers
新产品和服务的试销

What is limiting traditional retailers
from going online?
限制传统零售商发展网上业务的因素？
Potential channel conflicts with
physical stores
与实体商店的潜在渠道冲突
Technology too complicated and/or
risk
技术的复杂性（风险性）
Expected Return on Investment (ROI)
is not worth it
投资回报率不够高
Product inappropriate for online sale
产品不适合网上销售
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Some rules for the design of an online retail store
设计网上零售店

Design a great landing page
(“window”):
设计一个漂亮的登录页面（“窗口”）：

Provide uniform look, and consistent
navigation scheme across site
网站内要求有统一的外观、统一的导航方
式
30-second rule: You have very little time
to convince a customer to stay
30秒规则:你留住顾客的时间十分有限

Low switching cost into your site , but also
out of your site
转换到你的网站的成本低
Keep it simple (avoid clutter)
简洁为主（避免信息乱杂）
Keep it fast (limited bandwidth)
保持较快的访问速度（带宽有限）
Design landing page to depend on time
of day, on geography, on user’s past
behavior
依据时间地点和网民的浏览习惯设计登录
界面

Teach, don’t push
教育，而不是推销
Customers expect more information
online
消费者户希望在网上获得更多信息
Standardize site
实现网站的标准化
Create cognitive lock-in to increase
switching costs away from your site
建立认知锁定，从而提高客户离开网站的
转换成本

Help customers in shopping process
在消费者购物过程中提供帮助
Value added information
增值信息
Objective (e.g., comparisons)
客观（如：比较）
 Subjective (e.g., reviews by other
customers)
主观（如：其他消费者的评论）

Enable customers to share
消费者可以交流分享
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What is important to online customers?
网络消费者看重什么？
1.
Larger selection (broader choice if items), and availability
更多的选择,是否有货
2.
Lower prices
低价
Why possible?
为什么可能？
3.

US: Most online retailers do not have to charge sales tax (V.A.T.)
大多数美国在线零售商不用缴纳销售增值税

Higher efficiency due to view into supply chain
透明供应链大幅提高效率
Convenience
便利
Note trade-off between time vs price
时间率与价格的平衡

4.
Typical visit with one purchase: About 10 minutes, viewing about 10 pages
通常一次购买：历时约10分钟需浏览约10张网页
Transparency
透明
Immediate order confirmation and status checking
即时订单确认和状态追踪
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What is important online to men, to women?
网上男女有别
在选择从网上零售商购买产品时，
下列因素的重要性如何？
男士
女士
最关心的因素及比例(%):
支付安全
个人信息及隐私保障
网上订购的便洁性
送货成本
搜索产品的便捷性
便宜
网站和供应商的经验
朋友/同事的建议
零售商的网下供货情况
资料来源:Forrester
欧洲网上商场的调查资料
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People research online before buying offline
人们在网下购物前会上网查询
你在过去3个月中做过下面的任何事情吗
进行过网上研究和网下购买
进行过网上购买
进行网上研究后进行网下购买的
人与进行网上购买的人之比
书籍
音乐
活动门票
休闲旅游
VCD/DVD
服装
电脑硬件
电脑游戏
汽车
电脑软件
资料来源:Forrester
欧洲网上商场的调查资料
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Online’s influence to offline substantially higher than online spending*
受网上查询影响的网下消费要远高于网上消费*
* Excludes cars
10亿
不包括汽车
(in billions)
$700
$600
$130
$500
$104
$400
$83
$64
$300
$48
$200
$24
$100
$34
$139
$177
$226
2000
2001
2002
$282
$346
$418
$498
$0
2003
Online-influenced spending
受网上影响的消费
2004
2005
Online spending
网上消费
Source: Jupiter Internet Shopping Model, 4/01 (US only)
2006
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D. Jeff Bezos’s Seven Myths about the Internet
杰夫·贝佐斯破解互联网七大神话

Seven Myths about the Internet
互联网七大神话
Jeff Bezos, CEO and founder of Amazon.com
杰夫·贝佐斯，亚马逊网站创始人及CEO

From speech given at Harvard Business School Cyberposium on 26 February 2000
摘自2000年2月26日于哈佛商学院网络研讨会的演讲
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Myth #1
神话之一
•

The Internet changes everything.
互联网改变了一切
Not really, according to Bezos, since human beings like things certain ways, no matter
how much the technology advances. For instance, physical stores aren't going away any
more than movie theaters did with the advent of television. "People like to go outside and
get together with others," Bezos observed. Since bricks-and-mortar operations can't
compete with e-commerce on price, however, they'll focus on other things, such as
making shopping a more entertaining experience.
贝佐斯认为，并非完全如此，因为不管技术如何进步，人们对有些事有特定偏好。正如电视
时代的到来并未导致多少电影院关门大吉，许多商家实实在在的门面店铺也不会因为有了虚
拟购物环境就会消失。贝佐斯说：“人们总是喜欢外出，喜欢与他人在一起。”现实购物环
境中的店铺虽无法在价格上与电子商务网站竞争，但可以专攻其他方面，比如营造出令人愉
悦的购物环境和体验。
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Myth #2
神话之二
•

There are no barriers to entry on the Internet.
互联网不存在入市壁垒
If that's the case, asked Bezos, how do you explain the fact that Amazon.com and other ecommerce companies are investing hundreds of millions of dollars in their businesses. The
fact of the matter is, the barriers to entry on the Internet are high and getting higher in
the face of technological developments that will make today's online stores seem quaint
at best in the next five to ten years.
贝佐斯质疑道，如果真是这样，那如何解释亚马逊和很多电子商务公司在业务上投入上亿美
元的资金？事实是，互联网的进入壁垒很高，且这一壁垒只会越来越高，因为技术进步日新
月异，再过5到10年今天购物网站的概念就会不合时宜。
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Myth #3
神话之三
•

Intermediaries are dead.
中介从此消失
Intermediaries are a fact of life to some degree, Bezos asserted. The litmus test
will be who adds value and who doesn't. Those that don't will be "toast."
贝佐斯认为，在一定程度上，中介是客观存在的。问题的关键是看哪些中介能够提
供增值，哪些不能。不能增值的中介将淘汰出局。
•
Aggregators (vertical search engines, e.g., travel)
信息汇总网站（纵向搜索引擎，如旅游网站）
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Myth #4
神话之四
•

There are going to be only a few winners
in the Internet economy.
互联网经济中赢家总占少数
Bezos doesn't believe that one for a second. "The world of e-commerce will be
as richly varied as the physical world, probably more so," he said, "because more
business models are possible online." But that doesn't mean that success is in
the cards for everyone, he cautioned.
贝佐斯从不这么认为：“电子商务世界将与现实世界一样极具多样性，且可能有过
之而无不及，因为网络可能产生更多的商业模式。”他同时也警告说，这并非意味
着人人都能成功。
•
Platform
平台
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Myth #5
神话之五
It‘s easy for bricks-and-mortar retailers
to extend their business.
传统非网络零售商能轻易利用互联网拓展业务
•

Forget about it, said Bezos. It's an easy trap for people to fall into, he explained, because
they reason that a store is a store, whether it's physical or on line. Not so. Take books, for
example. Online sellers are essentially in the technology business; off-line operations are
in the real estate business. One group deals mainly with variable costs, the other with
fixed costs. Below the superficial similarities, the differences run deep.
贝佐斯说，千万小心，别陷入这样的误区。很多人认为不管是实际存在的，还是网上虚拟的，
店铺总是店铺。但事实并非如此。拿图书销售为例。根本而言，网上书商从事的是技术行业，
而非网络书商则属于不动产行业。其中一方主要处理可变成本，另一方则处理固定成本。虽
然两者表面类似，但实际上差异巨大。
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Myth #6
神话之六
•

Current market leaders can‘t fail.
目前的市场领跑者会一直风光
If they take their eyes off the customer, just watch them, said Bezos. In
addition, many business pioneers were good at risk taking until they became
successful and had something to lose. Then they fell off the leading edge and
never recovered.
贝佐斯认为，如果他们不再关注客户的话，那就等着看他们的下场吧。而且，许多
创业者在初期总是敢于冒险，但一旦成功或者到了一定规模以后就开始左顾右盼。
他们会就此失去领先优势，从此一蹶不振。
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Myth #7
神话之七
•

Every company needs an Internet strategy.
每家公司都需要互联网战略
Not. "The Internet is an enabling horizontal layer that is causing broad
disruptions across a big part of the economy, but it's not for every industry,"
Bezos concluded. "Yet you see people making business decisions based on the
Internet, even where it doesn't belong.”
并非如此！“互联网的确具有一定跨行业的通用意义，能影响大部分经济领域，但
并非适用于所有行业。” 但贝佐斯也认为：“即使与互联网毫不相干，你会看到人
们还是能利用互联网制定商业决策。”
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