Transcript 幻灯片 1 - Andreas Weigend, Social Data Revolution

The Networked Economy (19) :
Information Management, Strategy, and Innovation
网络经济: 信息管理, 战略, 和创新
Enterprise2.0
Marketing2.0
企业2.0和营销2.0
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Andreas S. Weigend, Ph.D. 韦思岸教授
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Collaboration tools
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Blogs
Comments
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Write
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Change what I have written
Comment only: Wall
How to indicate that
Questions
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Ownership: add /edit / delete
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Wiki
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Sharing documents
Google docs
Microsoft OneNote
Wiki
Data Mining and E-Business course:
Wiki at aweigend.wikispaces.com
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Tags
Binary or weighted (voting)
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Wisdom of crowds
Audit trail
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Add to (write, comment on) docs.o.
else has written
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Change (incl delete) existing doc
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Vote on tags (1 person, 1 vote?)
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Issues
Two or more people editing a
document a the same time
Online vs offline
Merging
Showing changes
Proiecting out different views
E.g., want all but Mr X’s comments
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Wisdom of the crowds – or stupidity of the masses?
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James Surowiecki
Under what circumstances is the crowd smarter?
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Crowd needs to be diverse, so that people are bringing different pieces of
information to the table.
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Crowd needs to be decentralized, so that no one at the top is dictating the
crowd’s answer.
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Crowd needs a way of summarizing people’s opinions into one collective verdict.
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And the people in the crowd need to be independent, so that they pay attention
mostly to their own information, and not worrying about what everyone around
them thinks.
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Prediction markets
A prediction market can be compared to a stock market for ideas or
information. The market rewards good information whether it comes
from elites or the masses.
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Prediction markets have built a track record of besting pundits and
pollsters when it comes to predicting everything from political
elections to quarterly sales figures.
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Reputation systems
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Why?
Help with decision who to trust
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Types of reputation online
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Expertise
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Outside the online system
Good behavior
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Inside the online system
Hidden information  intrinsic quality
Hidden actions  good behavior
Called adverse selection by
economists
Called moral hazard by economists
Principal agent problem: If you hire
someone who is an expert, he might
not do the best metrics for the firm
for his evaluation
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Sentiment analysis
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Marketing 2.0
营销2.0
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Blogs
博客
Conversational Marketing
对话式的营销
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Google vs Technorati
Google与Technorati
“If Google is the Web’s reference library, Technorati is its coffee house.”
“如果说Google是世界的网络图书馆，那么Technorati就是世界的咖啡馆。”
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Time Magazine, January 2007
时代杂志，2007年1月刊
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网络博客增长：2003.3—2007.3
追踪超过700万的网络博客
博客空间的增长率一直维持在每天有120，000个新
的博客产生
每天的上载量
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Posts by language (Technorati, 2006.Q4)
语言种类（ Technorati, 2006年4月）
%
Language语言
Japanese 日语
37%
English 英语
36%
Chinese 中文
8%
Italian 意大利语
3%
Spanish 西班牙语
3%
Russian 俄语
2%
French 法语
2%
Portuguese 葡萄牙语
2%
Farsi 波斯语
1%
German 德语
1%
Other 其它
5%
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Business practice: Open and transparent conversation
商业实践：开放和透明的对话
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Sun includes unedited, real-time comments about its products on its site
Sun的网站上包括了未经编辑的实时的有关产品的评论
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The CEO, Jonathan Schwartz
CEO, Jonathan Schwartz
blogs frequently himself, invites comments, and often comments on blogs of others
经常自己写搏客，欢迎评论，并经常在其他人的搏客上评论
encourages all its employees to blog
鼓励所有员工写搏客
believes that completely open communication about Sun’s products demonstrates strength,
customer focus and commitment to improving products fast
相信对于SUN产品完全公开的交流显示其快速改善产品的实力，客户关注点和承诺
uses conversational marketing to build a relationship with the Java development community and
maintain its conversation leadership
通过使用对话营销来与JAVA发展的社区建立联系和保持对话领导力
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Conversational marketing
对话营销
“It’s the job of everyone in the company to build customer relationships, not just sales or PR!”
建立顾客关系是公司里每个人的工作，不只是销售和公关人员。
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CEO Jonathan Schwartz’ Blog
CEO Jonathan Schwartz’ 的搏
客
Comments are spirited and uncensored
评论比较大胆而且未经审查
Sun features its employees blogs
Sun公司以它公司员工的搏客为一大特色
A typical product page at sun.com
在sun.com上一个典型的产品页面
Real-Time
uncensored blog
discussion about
Sun products is
syndicated to
sun.com product
pages via
Technology
通过技术，有关SUN
产品的未经审核的搏
客讨论已经是
sun.com 产品页面的
组成部分
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Enterprise 2.0
企业2.0
Key driver 1: Bi-directional always-on communication with cheap storage
关键动因1： 双向实时通讯，存储很便宜
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Data collection  Transparency
数据收集
透明性
Key driver 2: Consumerization of IT
关键动因2：促进IT消费
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Personal communication technology entering the firm
个人通讯技术进入公司
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SMS, Instant messaging (IM), tagging, blogging, social networks...
短信服务，即时通讯，书签，博客，社会网络
Other People’s Work
其他人的工作
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German: Das Aal-Prinzip = Andere arbeiten lassen
Wisdom of the crowds, or Tyranny of the masses?
群众的智慧，或者大众专制？
Collective intelligence , or combined stupidity?
集体智慧，或者集体愚蠢？
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Wikis, tagging, organizing your company’s knowledge
Wiki网站，标书签，组织你公司的知识
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From E-Business to Me-Business
从电子商务到自我商务
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“Me-Business”, see Rob Hoff , Business Week, 13 Nov 2007
How does traditional business need to change to successfully participate in this “MeBusiness”?
传统商务需要怎样改变来成功的参与到这个“自我商务”中来呢？
Traditional E-Business such as Amazon.com derives significant value from its customers contributing
metadata at the e-business site.
传统的电子商务，比如Amazon.com，从它的顾客在电子商务网站上贡献的元数据中获得了很大的价值。
Recently, hundreds of millions of individuals have created rich identities on the web of themselves,
expressing themselves and building their reputation over time through personal sites and blogs.
最近，成百上千万的普通人在他们自己的网络上创造了丰富的身份，来表达他们自己并且通过个人的网
站和博客来建立信誉。
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How can it replace increasingly unsuccessful push marketing and recommendations by
serendipity and discovery by the individual?
它怎么能通过个人的发现来代替越来越效果不佳的推式营销和推荐呢？
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Some trends
一些趋势
How has the behavior and the attitude of customers shifted in response to new technologies and new
incentive structures on the web?
由于网络上的新科技和新的激励框架的出现，顾客的行为和态度已经发生了怎样的变化？
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From algorithmic search to social search/ Leverage technology and people to have your
toughest questions answered
从算法搜索到社会搜索/利用科技和人来解决你最棘手的问题
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From global and local irrelevance to glocal relevance/ When does location matter?
全局和局部从不相关到相关/位置什么时候重要呢？
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From the money economy via the intention economy to the attention economy/ Why an
economy? Because it can be measured!
从货币经济到意图经济，再到注意力经济/为什么称之为经济？因为它可以测量！
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From traditional market research to observing the behavior of all individuals/ Why sample if you
can have all?
从传统市场研究到观察所有个体的行为/当你能获得全部信息时，抽样还有什么意义呢？
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Specifically, the effect of the long tail
特别是长尾效应
Production: From controlled production for the masses to uncontrolled production by the masses/ Why?
生产：从受控的为大众的生产到不受控的大众自己来生产/为什么？
Consumption: From traditional marketing push to individual discovery/ How can you help serendipity along?
消费：从传统的推式营销到个人去发现/你如何去帮住他们发现珍宝？
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