Transcript Louise Cord - Managing for Development Results

Poverty and Social Impact Analysis
Building capacity for evidence-based decision making
Louise Cord
PREM Poverty Reduction Group
The World Bank
Hanoi, February 2007
Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network
What is a good PSIA?
Five analytical lessons
1.
Impact on different groups
• Functional groupings are often more useful than income groups
2.
Negative and positive impacts
• Understanding the political economy of reforms is crucial
3.
Short and long-term impacts
• Direct effects and indirect effects (‘knock-on’ and behavior
change)
4.
Multiple transmission channels
• 1) Wages & prices, 2) employment, 3) access to goods &
services, 4) assets, 5) transfers & taxes, and 6) authority
5.
Choice of methods and team
• Appropriate analytical tools, triangulation of data sources and
disciplines (complementary quantitative and qualitative analysis)
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What is a good PSIA?
Five operational lessons
1. Identifying priority reforms
• From national policy process (PRS or CAS), selectivity essential,
specific and well-defined reforms work best
2. Design of the PSIA
• Transparent stakeholder consultations on the scope of analysis and
results, but not the analysis itself
3. Analysis of the reform
• Emphasis on maintaining high technical standards, potentially
involving a range of organizations (esp. implementing agency).
4. Policy dialogue and upstream integration
• Need to align with country’s planning & policy cycle
• Policy process has no clear beginning/end (continuous scrutiny)
5. Monitoring and evaluating the reforms
• Need to re-visit the assumptions of the ex ante PSIA, and adjust as
appropriate. Integration with national monitoring systems helps.
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Looking ahead: building country capacity
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Strengthening in-country capacity to carry out
multi-disciplinary distributional analysis.
Developing capacity of policymakers and
stakeholders to be good demanders and
consumers of distributional analysis.
Improving transparency and dissemination of the
analysis, contributing to open and informed policy
debate.
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Looking ahead: challenges
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Making PSIA relevant:
 Timing -conducting PSIA “upstream” as part of PRS.
 Cost
 Complexity
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Managing the political economy considerations:
 Disclosure
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Only one tool for evidence based decision making:
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Impact evaluation
PIA and other cost-benefit tools for investment projects
Analytical work
Monitoring systems
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www.worldbank.org/psia
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PSIA User’s Guide
Guidance on specific sectors
• Trade, monetary policy, utility provision, agricultural markets, land policy, education
(Volume 1)
• Health, labor market, pension, decentralization, public sector downsizing, taxation, and
macroeconomic modeling (Volume 2)
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Country case studies:
• “Poverty and Social Impact Analysis of Reforms: Lessons and Examples from
Implementation” (Coudouel, Dani & Paternostro, 2006)
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Tools for Institutional, Political and Social analysis (March 2007)
PSIA e-learning course
PSIA Good Practice Note
Economic tools for impact analysis:
• “Evaluating the Impact of Macroeconomic Policies on Poverty and Income Distribution
Using Micro-Macro Linkages Models” (forthcoming)
• “The impact of Economic Policies on Poverty and Income Distribution: Evaluation
Techniques and Tools” (Bourguignon and Pereira da Silva, 2003)
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