Transcript Enrollment Trends in Higher Education

2020: A Strategist Approach –
How the Changing Face of Higher Education and America Will
Affect Who You Are and What You Do
Bryan J. Cook
Director, Center for Policy Analysis
American Council on Education
The Major Trends

Significance of 2020

Who will learn?

Waning boomlet

Traditional redifined

Where are the guys

Exploding diversity

Who will teach?

Who will lead?
Bold Goal: 2020
“…by 2020, America will once again
have the highest proportion of college
graduates in the world”
-President Barak Obama
Degree Attainment (ages
25 to 34)
2007 US Degree
Attainment
Top OECD
Country in
2020
(projected)
37%
60%
The Problem: 2007
Degree Attainment (ages
25 to 34)
Degree
Attainment
+
37%
US citizens
with some
college, no
degree
21%
US Degree
Attainment
=
58%
The Problem: Degree
attainment and Population
Change (age 25 to 34)
Race
Percent with college
degree in 2007
Hispanic
20%
Black
28%
White
47%
Asian
73%
Increase in
population by 2020
The Problem: Degree
attainment and Population
Change (age 25 to 34)
Race
Percent with college
degree in 2007
Increase in
population by 2020
Hispanic
20%
30%
Black
28%
23%
White
47%
8%
Asian
73%
15%
Percent Change in NY
Population by Race, 2005 to
2025
70%
58%
60%
50%
40%
40%
30%
20%
10%
21%
19%
-6%
0%
-10%
White
Black
Hispanic
Asian
Native
American
Source: US Census Bureau
Higher Education: 2009 to
2020
• Increased access
• More accountability
• Greater transparency
• Cost containment
The Future of Higher
Education
A Cautionary Tale
DOE Undergraduate Enrollment Projections
17
Actual Enrollment
Enrollment in Millions
16
15
14
1995 Projection
2000 Projection
2005 Projection
2007 Projection
13
12
11
10
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: U.S. Department of Education, Projection of Education Statistics.
Source: WICHE, Knocking at the College Door.
2020-21
2019-20
2018-19
2017-18
2016-17
2015-16
2014-15
2013-14
2012-13
2011-12
2010-11
2009-10
2008-09
2007-08
2006-07
2005-06
2004-05
2003-04
2002-03
2001-02
2000-01
Millions
The Waning Boomlet
High School Graduates, 2000 to 2020
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.2
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.5
Actual
Projected
High School Graduates:
Variability by State
2001 to 2009 and 2013 to 2021
Sustained loss (2)
LA ND
Gain, loss (10)
AL AK CT IL MA MI NH NY OH RI
Gain, flat (4)
ME MD PA CA
No change (8)
DC HI IA MS SD VT WV WY
Flat, gain (7)
KS MN MT NE NM OK OR
Sustained gain
(20)
AZ AR CO DE FL GA ID IN KY MO NV NC
TX NJ SC TN UT VA WI WA
Source: WICHE, Knocking at the College Door.
NY High School
Graduates 2000 to 2020
Actual
191,615
Projected
20
20
18
20
16
20
14
20
12
20
10
20
08
20
06
161,417
20
04
20
02
168,485
20
20
00
195,000
190,000
185,000
180,000
175,000
170,000
165,000
160,000
155,000
150,000
145,000
140,000
Source: US Census Bureau
Traditional Redefined
The Old Nontraditional Student
Percentage of Total Student Population Age 25 or Older
45
42
38
40
35
30
43
41
39
38
2000
2010
28
25
20
15
10
5
0
1970
1980
1990
1995
2017
Source: U.S. Department of Education, Digest of Education Statistics 2007.
The New Nontraditional Student
Percentage of 2007-08 Undergraduates with
Nontraditional Characteristics
Any characteristic
70
Attends part time
51
Financially independent
50
Delayed enrollment
38
Works full time
34
Has dependents
27
Single Parent
13
No HS Diploma
9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Postsecondary Student Aid Study.
80
A New Market for Higher
Education? The Boomers Retire
Estimated Population (in millions)
120
98
100
77
80
2010
2020
60
40
31
31
20
0
18 to 24 Years Old (0% Increase)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
55 or Older (28% increase)
Where are the Guys?
Percentage of Dependent Undergraduates
Who Are Male, by Race/Ethnicity and income
2007-08
Lowest
Quartile
White
42%
African
American
42%
Hispanic
41%
Asian
49%
All Students
42%
Percentage of Dependent Undergraduates
Who Are Male, by Race/Ethnicity and income
2007-08
Lowest
Middle
Quartile
Quartile
White
42%
46%
African
American
42%
46%
Hispanic
41%
42%
Asian
49%
52%
All Students
42%
46%
Percentage of Dependent Undergraduates
Who Are Male, by Race/Ethnicity and income
2007-08
Lowest
Middle
Quartile
Quartile
Highest
Quartile
White
42%
46%
50%
African
American
42%
46%
48%
Hispanic
41%
42%
48%
Asian
49%
52%
51%
All Students
42%
46%
50%
What’s Happened to the Guys?
Bachelor's Degrees Conferred, 1977 to 2006
700,000
White Women
600,000
500,000
White Men
400,000
300,000
Minority Women
200,000
100,000
Minority Men
0
2005-06
2003-04
2001-02
1999-00
1997-98
1995-96
1993-94
1991-92
1989-90
1987-88
1985-86
1983-84
1981--82
1979-80
1977-78
Source: King, Gender Equity in Higher Education: Are Male Students at a Disadvantage?
Another Look at the Gender Gap
Average Share of 25 to 29 Year Olds
with Four or More Years of College
40
37
35
32
1980 to 1984
Percentage
30
25
25
2000 to 2004
21
20
18
17
15
12
12
12
9
10
9
9
5
0
White Men
White Women
African
American Men
African
American
Women
Hispanic Men
Source: ACE, Minorities in Higher Education 21st Annual Status Report.
Hispanic
Women
What’s Happened to the Guys?
College Enrollment, 2000 to 2014
12,000
31%
growth
10,000
8,000
Men
19%
growth
6,000
Women
4,000
2,000
0
2014-15
2012-13
2010-11
2008-09
2006-07
2004-05
2002-03
2000-01
Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Projections of Education Statistics
to 2014
Exploding Diversity
Diversity of High School
Graduates
3,500
High School Graduates
(in thousands)
3,000
Hispanic/Latino (187%)
780
2,500
297
127
2,000
336
26
393
1,500
1,000
241
Asian American (90%)
35
American Indian (34%)
African American (17%)
1,782
1,621
2000-01
2017-18
White (-10%)
500
0
Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, Knocking on the College Door.
Change in NY H.S. Graduates
by Race and Gender
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
White
Female
White
Male
Black
Female
Black
Male
Hispanic Hispanic Asian
Female
Male
Female
Asian
Male
N.A.
Female
N.A.
Male
Source: NYSED, ORIS 2009
Current Variation
in K-12 Diversity
Percentage
“Minority”
Northeast
60 percent
or more (5)
DC
South
Midwest
West
HI, NM, CA,
TX
MS, LA, MD,
FL, GA, SC,
NC, AL, VA
IL
40 to 59
percent (15)
NY, DE, NJ
AZ, NV, AK,
OK
20 to 39
percent (16)
CT, RI, MA,
PA
AR, TN
MI, KS, MO,
WI, OH, NE, CO, WA, OR
MN, IN
Less than 20
NH, VT, ME
percent (15)
KY, WV
SD, ND, IA
UT, MT, ID,
WY
Source: U.S. Department of Education, Common Core of Data 2006-07.
Cultural Diversity
Enrollment Projections by Race, 2000 to 2015
12,000
White
10,000
16%
8,000
Minorities
6,000
61%
4,000
2,000
20
14
20
12
20
10
20
08
20
06
20
04
20
02
0
20
00
(In Thousands)
14,000
Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Postsecondary Education Statistics, Projection
of Education Statistics to 2015
Cultural Diversity
Undergraduates by Immigrant Status,
2000 and 2004
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
80%
75%
2000
2004
4%
6%
Foreign-born
Citizen
10% 12%
5%
Citizen,
Parent(s)
foreign-born
7%
Resident
alien/eligible
Non Citizen
All other
citizens
Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Postsecondary Student Aid Study, 2003-04.
Graduate and Professional School
Enrollment by Race 1980 -2003
1400
White (graduate)
1200
20%
1000
800
Minorities
(graduate)
600
400
219%
White
(professional)
200
-11%
Minorities 207%
(professional)
0
1980
1990
1996
1998
2000
2003
Major Field of Study: First Year
Whites
African
Americans
Hispanics
Asian
Americans
Major
%
%
%
%
Humanities
9.1
7.0
6.1
7.8
Social Sciences
6.0
5.7
6.1
3.7
13.8
17.1
13.0
18.9
Education
8.9
5.9
5.2
1.9
Business
11.7
16.5
11.8
13.1
Health
8.5
14.6
9.2
10.4
Technical/
8.6
10.4
10
4.1
32
22.3
37.9
39.1
STEM
Professional
Undecided
Major Field of Study: Third Year
Whites
Major
African
Americans
Hispanics
Asian
Americans
%
%
%
%
Humanities
14.6
10.1
11.3
10.1
Social Sciences
13.1
12.8
11.3
11.2
STEM
15.8
11.4
10.7
25.8
Education
9.8
7.6
7.5
4.0
Business
16.6
16.9
17.7
19.5
Health
7.1
10.1
5.9
7.0
Technical/
8.7
14.3
9.5
5.7
14.3
16.9
26
16.9
Professional
Undecided
Who will teach?
Who Will Teach?
Instructional Faculty by Age in 2004
100%
80%
6
35%
27
2
6
39%
2
71 or Older
30
60%
65-70
55-64
31
40%
32
45-54
35-44
20%
0%
23
23
10
6
All Faculty
Tenured/Tenure-track Faculty
34 or Younger
Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Survey of Postsecondary Faculty, 2003-04.
Faculty Retirements
Expected Retirement Date of Tenured Faculty
Age 55 and Older
Don't Know
30%
11 Years or more
15%
1 to 5 Years
30%
6 to 10 Years
25%
Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Survey of Postsecondary Faculty, 2003-04.
Who Will Teach?
Tenured/Tenure Track Faculty by Age and Race
in 2004
100%
White
80%
African
American
77%
60%
86%
40%
Hispanic
Asian
20%
23%
Native American
14%
0%
Under 55
55 and Older
Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Survey of Postsecondary Faculty, 2003-04.
Who Will Teach?
Tenured/Tenure Track Faculty by Age
and Sex in 2004
100%
80%
39%
28%
60%
Men
40%
61%
72%
20%
0%
Under 55
55 and older
Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Survey of Postsecondary Faculty, 2003-04.
Women
Who will lead?
Who Will Lead?
Distribution of College Presidents by Race, 2006
American
Asian
Indian, 1%
American, 1%
Hispanic, 5%
African
American, 6%
White, 87%
Who Will Lead?
Percent of Minority Presidents by Institution Type, 1995
and 2005
30%
1995
2005
25%
20%
18% 18%
15%
11%
10%
5%
13%
7%
5%
0%
Public Four-Year
Private Four-Year
Public-Two Year
Senior Administrators
No More Likely to be People of Color
Percentage of Presidents and Senior Administrators
who are People of Color
14%
16%
10%
Presidents
All Senior Administrators
Chief Academic Officers
Sources: ACE. 2007. The American College President: 2007 Edition. ACE. 2008. On the Pathway to Presidency:
Characteristics of Higher Education’s Senior Leadership.
Who Will Lead?
Distribution of College Presidents by Gender, 2005
Female, 23%
Male, 77%
Who Will Lead?
Percent of Female Presidents by Institution Type, 1995
and 2005
28%
30%
1995
2005
25%
20%
17% 18%
16%
18%
15%
14%
10%
5%
0%
Public Four-Year
Private Four-Year
Public-Two Year
And more likely to be women …
Percentage of Presidents and Senior Administrators
who are Female
45%
38%
23%
Presidents
All Senior Administrators
Chief Academic Officers
Sources: ACE. 2007. The American College President: 2007 Edition. ACE. Sources: ACE. 2007. The American
College President: 2007 Edition. ACE. Forthcoming. On the Pathway to Presidency: Characteristics of Higher
Education’s Senior Leadership.
Recapping the Trends
Boomlet will wane nationally, with growth
continuing in a few states
A new kind of non-traditional student
Boomer retirees a potentially huge market
Huge educational strides by women
Increasing racial and cultural diversity
Major wave of faculty retirements
Center for Policy Analysis
202-939-9551
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