Transcript Microsoft Powerpoint ( 2.1 MB )

Public School Enrollment in Wisconsin
Past, Present, & Future
Presentation to the
Applied Demography Convention
January 9, 2014
Outline
Examine current public school enrollment trends in the State of
Wisconsin.
Explore the broader demographic trends which influence public
school enrollment.
Generate public school enrollment projections statewide and
by grade grouping, locale, and race/ethnicity.
Applied Population Laboratory
Public School Enrollment History
Wisconsin 1965/66 - 2012/13
1,100,000
1,050,000
999,921
1,000,000
Number of Students
950,000
Baby Boom
900,000
Boomlet
881,720
850,000
800,000
750,000
700,000
Baby Bust
767,542
 Statewide enrollment declined
by 0.1% in a five year period.
 59% of districts declined.
 90 districts (21%) declined by
10% or more.
 40% of districts increased.
 53 districts (12%) increased by
10% or more.
K-12 and 4K-12 Public School Enrollment
Wisconsin, 2005/06-2012/13
870,000
860,000
850,000
Students
840,000
830,000
820,000
810,000
800,000
05-06
06-07
07-08
08-09
4K-12
09-10
K-12
10-11
11-12
12-13
Non-Hispanic White Students, 2005/06-2012/13
79.0%
78.0%
77.0%
75.0%
74.0%
73.0%
72.0%
71.0%
05-06
06-07
07-08
08-09
09-10
10-11
11-12
Non-hispanic White
Students by Race/Ethnicity, 2005/06-2012/13
12-13
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
Students
Students
76.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
05-06
06-07
Asian
07-08
Black
08-09
Hispanic
09-10
10-11
American Indian
11-12
2 or More
12-13
School Districts by Locale
5%
Number of Districts
34%
61%
Urban
Suburban
Rural
District Enrollment
27%
35%
Urban
Suburban
Rural
38%
Students by Location, 2005/06-2012/13
330,000
310,000
290,000
Students
Place
Change
Urban
-1.6%
Suburban
9.9%
Rural
-5.7%
270,000
250,000
230,000
210,000
05-06
06-07
07-08
08-09
Urban
09-10
Suburban
10-11
Rural
11-12
12-13
2012-13 Enrollment by
Race/Ethnicity
Urban
◦ Urban – Greatest diversity.
African American and
Hispanic students are 22%.
Asian
Black
Hispanic
American Indian
White
◦ Suburban – Largest minority
is Hispanic (5.8%). Other
minority students range
from 2.2 to 3.7%.
◦ Rural – Largest minority is
Hispanic (6.1%). Second
largest is Native American
(2.5%).
2 or More
Suburban
Rural

Births

Age Structure

Migration
Wisconsin Births, 1990-2010
75,000
72,500
70,000
67,500
65,000
62,500
60,000
57,500
55,000
52,500
50,000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Non-Hispanic White Births
Total Births
Age Structure by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
85+
80-84
75-79
Male
Female
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
Age
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
Prime
childbearing
years
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
under 5
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2%
Percent of Population
Persons of Color
4%
6%
Non-Hispanic White Persons
8%
10%
12%
Net Migration Rates by Race/Ethnicity, 2000s
Non-Hispanic White
Non-Hispanic Black
Hispanic
Total
70
60
40
30
20
10
0
-10
Age
75+
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
-20
0-4
Net Migration Rate
50

Since the late 1990s births increased, but in 2007 total births
began to decline.
◦ Births of non-Hispanic whites have been declining , while minority
births leveled off and only just decreased in 2010.

The state’s age structure and recession contributed to low
births over the last few years.
◦ Women of prime child-bearing years delayed having children.

Net in-migration of all ages except young adults in the 2000s.
◦ Out-migration of young adults (age 25-29) occurred during the 1990s
and 2000s except in the Hispanic population.

Cohort component (survival) method

Grade progression ratios for Grades 1st to 12th
◦ Average ratio of previous year 1st graders to current year 2nd graders

Birth to Kindergarten
◦ 5 Year Trend model, 3 Year Trend model, & Fertility Rate model

Projections statewide and by grade grouping

Projections by race/ethnicity

Projections by urban/suburban/rural locale
Grade Progression Ratios, by Model
1.100
Grade Progression Ratio
1.050
1.000
0.950
Models
5 Year Trend
3 Year Trend
0.900
Fertility Rate
B:K
K:1
1:2
2:3
3:4
4:5
5:6
6:7
7:8
8:9
9:10
10:11
11:12
0.861
0.854
0.861
1.000
1.000
1.001
0.998
0.998
0.999
1.003
1.004
1.004
1.005
1.005
1.006
1.002
1.001
1.002
1.008
1.008
1.010
1.009
1.009
1.011
1.005
1.007
1.005
1.113
1.109
1.116
0.953
0.957
0.950
1.010
1.010
1.008
0.989
0.990
0.987
B:K
K:1
1:2
2:3
3:4
4:5
5:6
6:7
7:8
8:9
9:10
10:11
11:12
0.850
5 Year Trend
3 Year Trend
Fertility Rate
Actual and Projected Births, 1993-2017
74,000
Projected
72,000
70,000
68,000
66,000
64,000
62,000
60,000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Long Term Trend
Recent Trend
Fertility
ASFR Rate
Actual
4K-12 Enrollment History and Projections
872,000
870,000
868,000
866,000
864,000
862,000
860,000
858,000
856,000
854,000
852,000
850,000
5 Year Trend
3 Year Trend
Fertility Rate
Actual
Non-Hispanic White Students
4K-12 Enrollment History and Projections
700,000
680,000
660,000
640,000
620,000
600,000
580,000
560,000
540,000
520,000
500,000
5 Year Trend
3 Year Trend
Fertility Rate
Actual
Minority Students
4K-12 Enrollment History and Projections
140,000
130,000
120,000
110,000
100,000
90,000
African American
80,000
Hispanic
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
5 Year Trend
3 Year Trend
Fertility Rate
Actual
5 Year
3 Year
Fertility
Minority Students
4K-12 Enrollment History and Projections
40,000
35,000
Asian
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
Native American
10,000
5,000
5 Year Trend
3 Year Trend
Fertility Rate
Actual
5 Year
3 Year
Fertility
Urban Suburban and Rural School Districts
4K-12 Enrollment History and Projections
350,000
330,000
Suburban
310,000
Urban
290,000
270,000
250,000
Rural
230,000
210,000
5 Year Trend
Fertility Rate
3 Year Trend
Actual
Fertility Rate
5 Year
Actual
3 Year
5 Year Trend
Fertility
3 Year Trend
Actual

Total statewide public school enrollment will increase over time.

Elementary schools will increase for 2 years then decline over time.

Middle and high schools projected to decline for 1-2 years then
increase for the foreseeable future.

Non-Hispanic white population projected to continue to decline.

Hispanic and Asian population projected to increase while African and
Native American population projected to remain steady.

Suburban districts projected to increase, urban districts projected to
increase slightly after a year of decline, and rural districts projected to
continue to decline.
Enrollment Projections Error (2013-14)
State of Wisconsin
Actual (2013/14)
5 Year Trend
3 Year Trend
Fertility Rate
Statewide
number
868,182
857,181
856,886
857,373
Actual (2013/14)
5 Year Trend
3 Year Trend
Fertility Rate
Urban
number
299,482
292,204
292,430
292,100
Actual (2013/14)
5 Year Trend
3 Year Trend
Fertility Rate
Suburban
number
319,819
315,938
315,666
316,180
Actual (2013/14)
5 Year Trend
3 Year Trend
Fertility Rate
Rural
number
248,881
243,535
243,243
243,579
percent
-1.3%
-1.3%
-1.2%
percent
-2.4%
-2.4%
-2.5%
percent
-1.2%
-1.3%
-1.1%
percent
-2.1%
-2.3%
-2.1%
Public School Enrollment in Wisconsin
Past, Present, & Future
Sarah Kemp
Associate Researcher
Applied Population Laboratory
University of Wisconsin-Madison
(608) 265-6189
[email protected]
K-5 Enrollment History and Projections
370,000
365,000
360,000
355,000
350,000
345,000
340,000
5 Year Trend
3 Year Trend
Fertility Rate
Actual
6-8 Enrollment History and Projections
195,000
190,000
185,000
180,000
175,000
170,000
5 Year Trend
3 Year Trend
Fertility Rate
Actual
9-12 Enrollment History and Projections
295,000
290,000
285,000
280,000
275,000
270,000
265,000
260,000
5 Year Trend
3 Year Trend
Fertility Rate
Actual