Transcript Slide 1

LEDs: Opportunities
and Uncertainties
An Update
18 November 2009
Benjamin Gross, Ph.D.
Consultant
SBI Explorer
www.strategicbusinessinsights.com
© 2009 by Strategic Business Insights. All rights reserved.
LED Attributes
LEDs can improve most lighting solutions
Key Attributes:
Eficiency
Design
Longevity
Color
Image Sources: Actuate Corp., architonic.com, Zumtobel, Bracknell Forest Borough Council, MB Tronics
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Lighting Applications
LEDs can improve most lighting solutions
Applications include:
Home
Automotive
Outdoors
Display
Image Sources: LED Colour Solutions, Motion Trend, OrangeTeK, Crutchfield New Media, LLC
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LED Development
First half of the 20th century: light from p-n junction.
hv
p-type
- n-type
-
+
+
+
+
i
• 1960s and 1970s: commercial IR, red, and yellow light
emitting diodes (LEDs) (RCA, GE, TI)
• Color: semiconductor bandgap
• AlGaAs: red and IR; AlGaP: green; AlGaInP: yellow, orange
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LED Development
• 1990s: First commercial high-brightness blue LEDs (Nichia Shuji Nakamura).
• White lights quickly followed.
• Yellow phosphor combines for white light:
— Ce:YAG, ZnSe (substrate and phosphor), quantum dots.
Image Sources: University of Wisconsin, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Treehugger.com, lightemittingdiodes.org
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Efficiency
Drive for efficiency is pushing LED interest
Incandescent
Fluorescent
LED
< 20 lm/W
45–60 lm/W (CFL)
< 90 lm/W (available)
<100 lm/W (Tube)
>150 lm/W (experimental)
In SI measurements, luminous efficacy at 555 nm
has a theoretical maximum of 683 lm/W.
Image Sources: Reed Business Information Ltd; Madison Clean Energy; Boca Flasher
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Design
Small packages and color options allow for
novel design opportunities.
Image Sources: Solas, Koninklijke Philips Electronics, UMNITZ, architonic.com, Zumtobel
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Longevity
For embedded applications:
Longevity
reduces waste.
Image Sources: Motion0 Trend; OrangeTeK; Declan McCullagh; Forth Corporation; Bracknell Forest Borough Council
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Color Reproduction
• Blue lights with yellow
phosphors provide
“warmer” white
lighting than
fluorescent.
• White LEDs yield
improved color depth.
• RGB modules provide
adjustable coloring.
Quantum-dot lighting may provide even richer, more natural light
with broader color gamut.
Image Sources: Apple; treehugger.com
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High-Brightness LED Market
$14.9B (est.)
Estimated 24% CAGR between
2008 and 2013.
$4.6B
$5.1B
$4.9B
Overall lighting market approximately $100B in 2010.
Data Sources: Strategies Unlimited, Global Industry Analysts
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High-Brightness LED Market
• Market led by Japan: Nichia, Toshiba, Showa
Denko KK, Sharp, CITIZEN and Toyoda Gosei.
• Followed by Taiwan: Chi Mei (now owned by
Hon Hai), TSMC
• European Union: Philips, OSRAM Sylvania
• United States: Cree
• Korea: Samsung LED, LG Innotek, Seoul
Semiconductor
• China: Manufacturing dispersed, many
downstream manufacturers
Data Sources: Strategies Unlimited, Global Industry Analysts
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General Illumination
• General illumination market $5B by 2012
• LED benefits over CFL (CCT, lifetime,
dimmability, low-temperature, no mercury).
• Cost of LEDs remains too high for
consumers .
• U.S., Japan, Canada, Australia (and others) banning sale of
most incandescent bulbs by 2012.
• Europe banning the sale of 100-W incandescent bulb,
Sept. 2009, all incandescent bulbs 2016.
• LED has no mercury, so offers RoHS advantages.
Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) is an approximation of emitted
spectrum from a black-body radiator at temperature in kelvin.
Image Sources: Reed Business Information Ltd; Madison Clean Energy; Boca Flasher
Data Source: Strategies Unlimited
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Commercial/Municipal
• Always on: longevity and
efficiency important
— Labor-intensive
maintenance
— Understood cost/benefit
• Better outdoor/cold-temperature
performance
• New buildings, new light fixtures
• U.S. has ~130M streetlamps,
$65B replacement market over
next 10 years.
Image Sources: LEDs Magazine
Data Sources: U.S. DOE, Beringea LLC
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Automotive
• Space and power efficiency
is important.
• Efficiency is a value in
hybrid/EV.
• LEDs last the life of the car.
• LED-based brake lights represented 53% of worldwide
market in 2007, expected to be 85% of market by 2011.
Image Sources: Gizmodo.com; UMNITZA; Flatbatt
Data Source: Beringea LLC
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Automotive
• New opportunities in design: distinctive image branding
White LED headlights limited to luxury market.
Image Sources: Edmunds; Wheeltalk
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Automotive
• Smarter design offers adaptive front lighting.
• Design adjusts to speed and in turns.
• Future systems adjust cutoff line, brightness, conditions.
Image Sources: BMW World; LEDs Magazine
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Displays
• LED backlighting units for LCDs:
— Full NTSC color gamut
— Improved contrast with local
dimming
— Better efficiency (Energy Star
in United States)
— No mercury (RoHS)
• LED TVs from Sony, Sharp,
Samsung, LG, Vizio, and more.
Image Sources: HardWare.fr; Samsung; acWorld;
Techfresh
Data Source: DisplaySearch, iSuppli
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Displays
• LCDs represent 88% of display market.
• 104.5M LED BLU units in 2009 (est.),
53% of mid- to high-end notebooks.
• LED BLUs in 3% of LCD TVs in 2009,
reaching 39% of LCD TVs in 2013
(~90% CAGR).
Image Sources: HardWare.fr; Samsung; acWorld;
Techfresh
Data Source: DisplaySearch, iSuppli
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Displays
• Large LED Displays:
— Are visible in direct sunlight
— Can be very large
— Need infrequent component
replacement
Image Sources: Mitsubishi; Declan McCullagh
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Freespace Communications
• Outdoor
— Reasonable Optical
Near Joint Access
(RONJA, Czech Rep.)
— 10 Mbps, >1.4 km
— Weather problems
• Indoor
— White LED lighting
— Unlicensed spectrum
• Traffic Signal
Image Sources: Twibright Labs, VLCC
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Commercialization Parameters
• Technological Hurdles
• New materials for LEDs
— Phosphors
— Quantum dots
— Casing materials
• Efficiency
— Luminaire efficacy
— High-power HB-LEDs (to
outperform CFL)
• Luminous flux
Image Sources: treehugger.com
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Commercialization Parameters
• Cost Hurdles
• Economies of Scale
— Like computer chips
— Demand across all
applications
• Incumbency
— Ubiquitous AC power
and light fixtures
— Creative destruction
Image Sources: treehugger.com
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Commercialization Parameters
Social Drivers
• Policy drivers
• Need for standardization
• Public movement
— “Ban the Bulb”
— Energy-efficiency push
Image Sources: treehugger.com
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Conclusions for now
• Lighting, automotive, and displays
are the fastest-growing areas and
where new opportunities will be.
• LED supportive national policies are
being implemented, and will continue
to emerge.
• LEDs are a part of the “cleantech”
movement.
• Efficacy and cost issues can be met
within a reasonable time frame.
• Standards are necessary for buy in.
Image Sources: Sustainable Design Update
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Outlook
•
•
•
•
•
LEDs achieving 85% of brake light market in 2011.
Laptop display market trending toward 100% adoption of LEDs.
LED BLU for LCDs will be largest contributor toward market
growth, largest market segment through 2013.
LED general illumination market to see 15% growth in 2009, 40%50% growth in years following economic recovery. Second
largest application of HB-LED in 2013.
Detroit based Ilumisys (subsidiary of Altair Engineering) plans to
grow out of economic downturn, claims it will be “highest
volume maker of solid state lighting products,” by end of 2010.
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Task: Consider Areas to Monitor
R&D
Advances
Issues and Uncertainties
Efficiency
Regulations
Cost of LED
Economy
Automobile
Market
Luxury
Automobile
Market
LED-BLU
Dominates
LCD HDTV
Global
Standardized
In-home
Light Fixture
DC Power
Streetlight/Signal
Replacement
Availability of
Q-Dot Mass
Enabling Components
Production
LED Replaces
Incandescent
Consumer
Acceptance of LED
(Upfront Cost and
Appearance)
Cost of Energy
OLED
Competitive
With LED
LED Projectors
Efficacy
Improvement
Adaptive
Front-Lighting
(HB/LB)
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