Transcript Document

Renewable Energy Sources
Necessity, trends and perspectives
Dr. P. Κ. Chaviaropoulos
CRES
Renewable Energy Sources Division
«Ενέργεια χωρίς Σύνορα» , Μάιος 2008, Αθήνα
GLOBAL
«Ενέργεια χωρίς Σύνορα» , Μάιος 2008, Αθήνα
Actual and projected CO2 emissions (1990-2030)
in the IEA “Reference” and EU 27 “Baseline” Scenario
Mton of CO2
12.500
China
10.000
7.500
USA
EU-27
5.000
India
Economies
in Transition
2.500
Russia
Latin America
Japan
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Source: E3MLab, PRIMES Model; International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2007
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2025
2030
Environment: the cost of inaction is higher than the cost of action
FIGURA
 In a business as usual scenario global GHG emissions may treble by 2050
 This would lead to an increase in average temperature greater than 2ºC and
15 would cause irreversible damage to the planet
 The cost of inaction is higher than the cost of action
Global average temperature change in the business as usual scenario
ºC (compared with pre-industrial level)
5
Threshold point beyond which
significant and irreversible
damage might take place
4
3
EU long-term
sustainable target
(6th EAP)
2
1
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100
Source: Stern Report
«Ενέργεια χωρίς Σύνορα» , Μάιος 2008, Αθήνα
Competitiveness:
Oil and gas- the medium term scenario is not optimistic
 Oil prices increased fourfold since 2001 and are flirting with $100/bbl
 Medium term scenario oil and gas price forecasts are not optimistic and
raise issues regarding competitiveness and security of supply
Oil price duplicated in only three years (2004-2007)
Historic oil price peaks followed by significant
decreases in GDP growth and increases in inflation rate
US$ (2007)/ bbl
120
25%
Iraq/Iran
War
100
OPEC
crisis
20%
OPEC
crisis
80
15%
1st Gulf
War
60
Demand
recovery
10%
5%
40
20
0%
Asian
crisis
Iraq/Iran
War
-5%
0
1970
1980
1975
1985
1990
2000
1995
2007
2005
1970
1980
1975
1990
1985
OECD countries
GDP annual growth
rate (current prices)
1995
2000
2007
2005
OECD countries
inflation rate
Source: IMF; BP Statistical Review Full Report; Global Upstream Performance Review 2007 – John S. Herold Inc.;The Economist Intellegence Unit; www.x-rates.com; Datastream
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Security of energy supply
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EUROPE
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Import Dependency of EU-27
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RES Contribution in the EU-27 Energy Mix
Eurostat 2004
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GREECE
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RES-E Installed Power in Greece
Evolution of RES installed power
1400
1300
1322
1200
1100
1000
1040
Installed Power [MW]
900
WIND
SH
BIOMASS
PV
800
759
700
600
592
523
500
483
400
300
278
200
100
351
369
159
69
0
1994
69
70
71
82
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
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2005
2006
2007*
2008*
ENERGY POLICY IN EUROPE – STATE OF PLAY
Three Challenges of the European Energy Policy (DG-TREN)
•Internal Market
•Interconnections (Trans-European networks)
•European electricity and gas network
•Research and innovation
Competitiveness
“LISBON”
FULLY
BALANCED
INTEGRATED
Sustainable
Development
AND
MUTUALLY REINFORCED
„MOSCOW“
“KYOTO”
•Renewable energy
•Energy efficiency
•Nuclear
•Research and innovation
•Emission trading
Security of supply
•International Dialogue
•European stock management (oil/gas)
•Refining capacity and energy storage
•Diversification
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ENERGY POLICY IN EUROPE – STATE OF PLAY
The EU challenges for a new Industrial Revolution
Directions
• Reduce use (energy saving)
• Increase efficiency (efficiency rate improvement of the energy conversion)
• Decarbonize energy production
New Binding Targets (2007 «Energy Pack»)
• 20 % reduction of greenhouse gas by 2020 in comparison with 1990 (for
2050 indicative reduction percentage 60-80%!)
• 20 % reduction of the primary energy use by 2020
• 20% RES penetration in the energy system from which 10% (minimum)
biofuels in transport by 2020
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A Pathway for Emissions Reduction (Europe)
CO2 emissions forecast according to business as usual scenario and new targets
for both 2020 and 2050
CO2 emissions (Mtons)
5,000
BaU
4,000
68
3,000
17
2,000
11
4
Vision
1,000
0
1990
1995
2000
Source: E3MLab, PRIMES Model
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Power
Transport
Residential
Industry
2030
%
2035
2040
Sector contribution
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2045
2050
Technology Roadmap
SET-Plan
2050+
Fusion
Carbon Capture
& Storage
Hydrogen Cars
Challenge for Implementation
Fission
Concentrated
Solar Power
Energy Efficiency
in Industry
(without CHP in industry)
Hydropower
Biofuels
Wave
Geothermal Power
Solar
Photovoltaics
Geothermal Heating
Energy Efficiency
in Transport
Solar Heating
& Cooling
Wind
Cogeneration
Energy Efficiency
in Buildings
Today
Demand side
technologies
Supply side
technologies
Transport
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Time Horizon
Towards Sustainable Energy System
RES-E Perspectives
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RES-T Perspectives
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THE FUTURE
A new Energy ERA
 A new energy ERA is proposed for Europe in 2050

Energy efficiency, Renewables and clean thermal generation and
Advanced state-of-the-art grid and storage infrastructure
 This new energy model must be supported by 4 main principles

Efficiency, Low carbon content, Decentralization and Holistic approach
New infrastructure vision, efficiency and decentralization
Current
model
Current model
Generation
Generation
Centralized
Centralized
generation
generation
supported
big
by big
supported by
conventional
power
conventional power
plants
plants
Regular
electricity
Regular electricity
flow
from
flow from
conventional
power
conventional power
plants
plants
Decentralized
Decentralized
smarter
grid
smarter grid
system,
with
system, with
telemeter
systems,
telemeter systems,
bidirectionality
bidirectionality
and
real-time
and real-time
management
management
capacity
capacity
Unidirectional
flow
Unidirectional flow
through
grid
the grid
through the
infra-structure
the
till the
infra-structure till
end-consumer
end-consumer
(from
generator
the generator
(from the
to
consumer)
to consumer)
Grid
Grid
infrainfrastructure
structure
Consumers
Consumers
-directional model
Future
bi
model
bi-directional
and bidecentralized and
Future decentralized
Consumers
as
Consumers as
"energy
users"
"energy users"
only
only
Consumers
with
Consumers with
microgeneration
units,
microgeneration units,
acting
"energy
both "energy
as both
acting as
users"
"energy
and "energy
users" and
emitters"
emitters"
«Ενέργεια χωρίς Σύνορα» , Μάιος 2008, Αθήνα