Transcript Scientific American, New Research Examines Role of Clouds

‫ יום עיון אמ"י‬29 Jan 2012
-‫מדוע הספקנים ומכחישי ההתחממות מעשי ידי‬
?)‫אדם אינם משכנעים (אותי‬
Pinhas Alpert
Head of the Porter School of Environmental Studies
Department of Geophysical, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences
Tel-Aviv University
Overview
• The importance of a Regional Perspectives:
1)Mid-East
2)Mediterranean
The limitation of local studies
• Mediterranean Water Balance Changes under GWJapanese Super High-Resolution Study
• Why the climate model is convincingThe Cairo-Adana Precipitation gradient
• Does cloudiness decrease (Nir Shaviv & Cosmic Rays)?
• The Real Holes in Climate Science
• Importance of skepticism and its danger- ‫איפכא‬
‫מסתברא‬
The importance of a Regional Perspectives:
1)Mid-East
2)Mediterranean
The limitation of local studies
Climatic Trends
"Trends in Middle East climate extreme
indices from 1950 to 2003",
X. Zhang, E. Aguilar, S. Sensoy, H. Melkonyan, U. Tagiyeva, N. Ahmed,
N. Kutaladze, F. Rahimzadeh, A. Taghipour, T. H. Hantosh, P.
Alpert, M. Semawi, M. K. Ali, M. H. S. Al-Shabibi, Z. Al-Oulan, T.
Zatari, I. Al Dean Khelet, S. Hamoud, R. Sagir, M. Demircan, M.
Eken, M. Adiguzel, L. Alexander, T. C. Peterson, and T. Wallis,
"Trends in Middle East climate extreme indices
from 1950 to 2003", J. Geophys. Res., 110, D22104,
doi:10.1029/2005JD006181, 2005
TX90p
Top 10
Percentiles
Tmax/min
TN90p
Recent
10 y dramatic
TX90p
Top 10
Percentiles
Tmax/min
TN90p
Solid triangles
5% significance
Turkey- recent & TN
More significant
Annual Precipitation Anomalies
Precipitation variation is characterized by strong interannual variability
without any significant trend in any of the indices
Mediterranean Changes in P: 1980-2002 vs.
1931-79
Actual change in
annual means
(mm)
Data from UEA TS2p1
t-test (95% confidence
highlighted)
Y. Kushnir 2009
Mediterranean Water Balance Changes
under Global Warming
Japanese Super High-Resolution Study
Climatic Trends
Global super high-resolution run
Kitoh, Yatagai and Alpert, 2008: First super-high-resolution
model projection that the ancient “Fertile Crescent” will
disappear in this century. Hydrological Research Letters, 2,
1-4, DOI: 10.3178/HRL.2.1, 2008.
Annual Precipitation (mm/year)
EMclim
CRU
IPCC AR4
models
20-km
model
Water vapor budget equation
1 
g t
1
S qdp  g
T

T
S

1
  Q dp 
g
Vertical integrated
moisture flux (VIMF)
dPW
By neglect dPW, VIClwF

T
S

Q
Clw
dp  E  P
VIClwF
Clw=cloud Liquid water
Using Green’s Theorem
+
Total boundary outflows
and inflows
1
g
T

S

  Qdp  
T
S

OF IF
qvn dl dp 

A
A
OF
IF
EP

A
A
Research area
Y. Shay-El, P. Alpert , and A. daSilva, "Preliminary estimation of horizontal fluxes of cloud liquid water in relation to subtropical moisture budget studies employing
ISCCP, SSMI and GEOS-1/DAS datasets", J. Geophys. Res., 105, No. D14, 18,067, 2000.
Sketch map
N-InF
N-OutF
E-InF
West inflow
West outflow
E-OutF
S-InF
S-OutF
P
Unit: mm/day
E
P Categories
1
2
3
4
5
Amount P
P<1
1<=P<1.5
1.5<=P<2
2<=P<2.5
P>=2.5
Five precipitation categories based on monthly averages in (mm/d)
over the whole Mediterranean- current & future
Precipitation
categories
Current
Future
Nunbermonths
percentage
Aver_P
Numbermonths
percentage
Aver_P
P<1
7
5%
0.90
19
13%
0.75
1.5>p>=1
41
24%
1.29
33
23%
1.26
2>p>=1.5
54
32%
1.76
61
42%
1.72
2.5>p>=2
46
27%
2.24
23
16%
2.17
P>=2.5
20
12%
2.72
8
6%
2.75
Sum
168
(28 years)
100%
1.85
(Mean P)
144
(24 years)
100%
1.62
(Mean P)
Relationships among the moisture budget components based on
the 5 different precipitation categories
Unit: mm/day
3.0
2.5
mm/day
2.0
1.5
Current (1979-2007)
W
E
N
E
S
W
S
N
1.0
0.5
0.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
W-InF
E-InF
N-InF
S-InF
W-OutF
E-OutF
N-OutF
S-OutF
TInF
TOutF
P
E
E-P
TO-TI
Future (2075-2099) minus current
W
E
N
S
S
W
E
N
0.2
0.0
ΔP
-0.2
W - I n F
E - I n F
N - I n F
S - I n F
W - O u t F
E - O u t F
N - O u t F
S - O u t F
T I n F
Tinf
Inflow
Outflow
T O u t F
Tout
P
E
P
E
E - P
T O - T I
E-P Tout-Tinf
Why the climate model is convincing
me?
The Cairo-Adana Precipitation gradient is
not found realistically in the gridded
observations but it does in the climate super
high-resolution run!!
Precipitation Comparison: ERA-40, CRU and 20 km GCM
Total
seasonal
(Oct-Apr)
precipitation
for
the
Eastern
Meditrranean(EM)+Middle-East (left panel) and zoomed in over the EM (right
panel). Averaging time period is 1979 - 2002. Unit: mm/season.
(a) Comparison of average total observed seasonal precipitation with three model data for the
selected 6 stations. The six stations are from south-to-north, Egypt---Cairo (Ca,); Israel---BeerSheva (Bs), Tel-Aviv (Ta), Haifa (Hf); Lebanon---Beirut (Be) and Turkey---Adana (Ad). Unit:
mm/season. (b) Eastern Mediterranean map indicating the location of the six stations.
Global mean temperature from an ensemble of 4
simulations using natural and anthropogenic forcing
Warming of 1910-1940
due to solar changes
Stott et al,
Science 2000
Models with only natural
forcings cannot reproduce
the observed temperature
trend after 1950
Difference of seasonal total E, P and P-E between the future (2075-2099) and
current (1979-2002) 20 km GCM runs.
E
P-E
P
Dashed contour lines indicate the negative
changes, i.e. reduction in the future. Unit:
mm/season
Dashed 2075-2099
solid 1979-2007
Changes of monthly mean river discharge of six rivers by (1979-2003)
compare to (2075-2099). Except to the Jordan River, all rivers flow into
the Mediterranean (m3/s). Bold lines (
) are for current climate, while
dashed (
) for the future.
Does cloudiness really
decrease?
response to Nir Shaviv & Cosmic Rays Theory
No Evidence of Decreasing Cloud Cover!
Figure 3.22
2007-2010 record
Solar Minimum should
have caused cooling
Scientists find errors in hypothesis linking solar flares to global temperature
Why Anti-Global-Warming theories are not science :
• "The theory of anthropogenic global warming consists of a set of
logically interconnected and consistent hypotheses,” Martin
Rypdal said.
• “This means that if a cornerstone hypothesis is proven to be
false, the entire theory fails.
• A corresponding theory of global warming of solar origin does
not exist. What does exist is a set of disconnected, mutually
inconsistent, ad hoc hypotheses.
• If one of these is proven to be false, the typical proponent of
solar warming will pull another ad hoc hypothesis out of the
hat.”
M. Rypdal and K. Rypdal. “Testing Hypotheses about Sun-Climate Complexity
Linking.” Physical Review Letters 104, 128501 (2010).
DOI:10.1103/PhysRevLett.104.128501
http://www.physorg.com/news189845962.html
• Solar variation types : 11 year cycle, Forbush (Fd) decrease (following CME). Fd
is a stochastic variation in Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) lasting about a week, similar
in amplitude to 11 year cycle. Drops in hours, recovers in days.
• Svensmark and Friis‐Christensen [1997] analyzed one solar cycle and found that
global cloud cover changed in phase with the GCR flux by 2–3%.
• Marsh and Svensmark [2000, 2003] indicated that the correlation holds only for low
clouds (0–3.2 km) at low latitudes.
• Svensmark et al. [2009] claimed significant reductions in cloud water content, cloud
cover, and aerosol concentrations for low clouds during 26 Fd decreases.
• A newly formed aerosol particle needs 3+ days to grow to Cloud Condensation
Nuclei (CCN) size (30 nm). After a Fd event CCN reformation should take 3+2=5
days. Expect less than usual cloud cover about 4–8 days after a Fd event.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37, L03802, doi:10.1029/2009GL041327, 2010
Sudden cosmic ray decreases: No change of global cloud cover J. Calogovic, C. Albert, F. Arnold, J. Beer, L.
Desorgher, and E. O. Flueckiger
• Performed correlation analysis of cloud cover and GCR-induced ion
production for the six largest Fd events in the period 1989 to 2001.
• Used 3 hourly infrared (IR) ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology
Project) D1 cloud cover data, equivalent to the ISCCP D2 monthly data used by
Marsh and Svensmark and others.
• A model was used to calculate the ion production rate in the atmosphere
during each event.
• Correlation coefficients between ionization and cloud cover were
calculated for each grid cell on a global grid of about 1700 to 6000 cells.
Absence of a significant maximum for all three cloud layers.
• Geographical locations where cloud cover correlates more positively with the
CR intensity are different for each single Fd event.
No indications of regional effects.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37, L03802, doi:10.1029/2009GL041327, 2010
Sudden cosmic ray decreases: No change of global cloud cover J. Calogovic, C. Albert, F. Arnold, J. Beer, L.
Desorgher, and E. O. Flueckiger
• Observations on atmospheric aerosol formation
based on measurements in Finland,
over a solar cycle (years 1996–2008).
• Days were divided into particle formation event days, non-event days and
undefined days .
• No connection between the frequency of atmospheric new particle
formation and cosmic ray-induced ionization intensity (CRII) at the
station over the investigated solar cycle.
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 1885–1898, 2010
www.atmos-chem-phys.net/10/1885/2010/
Atmospheric data over a solar cycle: no connection between galactic cosmic rays and new particle formation
M. Kulmala, I. Riipinen, T. Nieminen, M. Hulkkonen, L. Sogacheva, H. E. Manninen, P. Paasonen,
T. Pet柑j柑, M. Dal Maso, P. P. Aalto, A. Viljanen, I. Usoskin, R. Vainio, S. Mirme, A. Mirme, A. Minikin,
A. Petzold, U. H˜orrak, C. Plaｧ-Dｬulmer, W. Birmili, and V.-M. Kerminen
•
Analyzed also for the total number concentration of particles in the nucleation
(diameter 3–25 nm, N3−25), Aitken (25–100 nm, N25−100) and accumulation
(100–1000 nm, N100−1000) modes, formation rate of 3 nm particles, and growth
rate of nucleation mode particles.
None of these quantities showed a statistically
significant correlation with CRII.
• Concluded that Ion induced nucleation may dominate atmospheric aerosol
formation under specific conditions, confined to low aerosol formation rates.
None of the quantities related to aerosol formation correlates with CRII.
• CR charged particle flux in the lower atmosphere varies by about 15% at high
latitudes over a solar cycle. Changes in CRII could induce a maximum change
of 1.5% in the formation of aerosols. Change in the formation of cloud
condensation nuclei (CCN) would be much less than 1%, since the contribution
of atmospheric nucleation to total aerosol concentration is bigger than its
contribution to CCN production.
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 1885–1898, 2010
www.atmos-chem-phys.net/10/1885/2010/
On an annual scale CR is anti-correlated with nucleation events.
On a monthly scale even the anti-correlation disappears.
The Real Holes in Climate Science- Nature
News
(Q. Schiermeier, Nature, 20 Jan 2010, 284-287)
“Such holes do not undermine the fundamental conclusion that humans
are warming the climate, which is based on the extreme rate of the 20th
century temperature changes and the inability of climate models to
simulate such warming without including the role of greenhouse-gas
pollution”
“Nature has singled out four areas- regional climate
forecasts, precipitation forecast, aerosols and
paleoclimate data”
‫הוויכוח הציבורי סביב שינויי האקלים‬
‫האם אנו יכולים למנוע אסון אשר מתקרב?‬
‫ויכוח עז ניטש בימים אלה‪ ,‬בעקבות התיאוריה לפיה כדור הארץ עובר תהליך של‬
‫התחממות חסרת תקדים‪ ,‬שעל פי תיאוריה נוספת‪ ,‬מיוחסת לפעילות האנושית‪.‬‬
‫אם זה נכון – שומה עלינו לנקוט צעדים חסרי תקדים על מנת להציל את העולם‪.‬‬
‫אם שתי התיאוריות מופרכות‪ ,‬או אף אם אחת מהן אינה נכונה‪ ,‬אזי ממשלות רבות‬
‫עומדות להוציא הון עתק‪ ,‬לעצור את הקדמה ולהעמיק את העוני תוך פגיעה‬
‫באזרחיהם‪.‬‬
‫בדפים הבאים נציג את עיקרי הוויכוח ונחשוף את העובדות‪ ,‬שלפעמים נעלמות בלהט‬
‫הוויכוח‪.‬‬
‫מתי נולדה הדאגה מפני "התחממות גלובלית מעשה ידי אדם"?‬
‫התיאוריה בדבר התחממות גלובלית מעשה ידי אדם פרצה לתודעה הציבורית בשנת‬
‫‪,,,,,,,,,,,,,1988‬‬
My conclusions
• Debate gets into the interesting more basic questions: can
cloud cover explain the major Temperature changes?
• Kushnir’s talk yesterday on GHG role in the NAO shift in recent
decade.
• MedCLIVAR’s role
The skeptic article:
Spencer, R.W.; Braswell, W.D. On the misdiagnosis of surface temperature
feedbacks from variations in earth’s radiant energy balance. Remote Sens.
2011, 3, 1603-1613. (published 6 Sept 2011)
Remote Sensing Editor immediately resigned in wake of criticism
Scientific American,
New Research Examines Role of Clouds in Climate Change.
New findings show that variations in cloud cover cannot explain
temperature changes as a result of global climate change.
Douglas Fischer and The Daily Climate |
September 7, 2011
Svensmark Theory
supported by Spencer & Braswell (2011)
New findings published Tuesday appear to undermine a controversial study - oft-cited by those who downplay
the human impacts of climate change - that claimed variations in cloud cover are driving
temperature changes across the globe
Svensmark & Calder, The Chilling Stars- A new theory of Climate Change, 2009
)"‫ "הכוכבים המקררים‬,‫ הוצאת עם עובד‬:In Hebrew)
---------------------------------------------
Dessler Analysis:
The analysis confirms - as most atmospheric scientists have long held - that the reverse is
true: Clouds change in response to temperature changes. There is no evidence clouds can
cause meaningful climate change, concluded the report's author.
But Spencer's key assumptions were wrong, Dessler added. And while Spencer and his coauthor, University of Alabama scientist Danny Braswell, claimed to have examined 14
climate models, they presented just the results of the six models showing the biggest
mismatch with reality.
,
Response by Dessler
to National Geographic
The oceans are a primary driver of weather worldwide, responsible for periodic
weather patterns such as El Ni–o and La Nina, known collectively as "ENSO,"
that bring extreme weather to many parts of the globe.
Dessler's research, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, looked
at 10 years' worth of data from the sky and the sea. That data, he said, show
the ocean's influence on the Earth's climate to be 20 times larger than
any influence due to cloud cover changes. Spencer and Braswell
assumed the ratio was closer to 0.5, Dessler said
The bottom line, Dessler added, is that energy trapped by clouds can only explain
a small part of the temperature changes seen from 2000 to 2010.
It's like someone saying Newton is wrong," Dessler said. "
"ENSO is not caused by clouds”
------------------------------------
Dessler, A.E. A determination of the cloud feedback from climate
.variations over the past decade. Science 2010, 330, 1523-1527.