Transcript Document

Training workshop on Regional Climate Modeling using PRECIS
February 14-18, 2010, Dhaka, Bangladesh
Introduction to climate change
work in Bangladesh
A.K.M. Saiful Islam
Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM)
Bangladesh University of Engineer and Technology (BUET)
Outline
Introduction to Climate Change Study
Cell at BUET
Climate Change Conditions of
Bangladesh
Regional Climate Change Modeling
using PRECIS for Bangladesh
Climate Change Study Cell at
BUET
Climate Change Study Cell
IWFM has established a
climate change study cell
in 2008.
The vision of the Cell is to
establish itself as the
premier knowledge center
on climate change risk and
adaptation for Bangladesh.
Chief Guest was
Minister of Disaster
Management
Launching Ceremony
On March 08, 2009
Institution Frameworks
Syndicate
BOG
Advisory committee
Director
Liaison Committee
Coordinator
Research Teams
IWFM
CCSC
Activities in 2008
Short courses
Two short courses on "Climate Change
Training for Water Professionals”, were
held on 17-19 November and 18-20
October of 2008 at DCE, BUET.
Short Course on "Climate Change Risks
and Adaptation in Water Sector" held on
10-11 February, 2008 at DCE, BUET.
Activities in 2009
• M.Sc. Course in Climate Change Risk
Management offered at IWFM
Course web sitehttp://teacher.buet.ac.bd/akmsaifulislam
/climatecourse2009.html
• In future Certificate course will be
offered for professionals
Activities in 2009
Total 20 participants will attend this workshop from
various Gov. and Non-Gov. organizations. This
workshop will be organized in collaboration with
Met Office, UK and funded by DFID, UK.
Upcoming – Capacity Building
Program
• In response to the call for project proposals for
“Climate Change Trust Fund” from Ministry of
Environment and Forestry (MoEF), CCSC has
submitted a project proposal which include-
 Fifteen Research Proposals on climate change
 Computational Facility Development for
Regional Climate Change Modeling
 Student Fellowship
 International Conference Organizations
 Institutional Strengthen of the Cell
Visit our Website for more information
http://teacher.buet.ac.bd/diriwfm/climate/
Changing Climate of
Bangladesh
Temperature Data Analysis (1947-2007)
Mean daily temperature of Bangladesh has increased
with a rate of 1.03 0C per 100 years
27
(c)
26
25
y = 0.0103x + 25.428
R2 = 0.2996
24
2008
2003
1998
1993
1988
1983
1978
1973
1968
1963
1958
1953
1948
23
Trends of Temperature of
Bangladesh (1947-2007)
Max. Temp. = 0.63 0C/100 year
2008
2005
2002
1999
1996
1993
1990
1987
1984
1981
1978
1975
1972
2008
2005
2002
1999
1996
1993
1990
1987
1984
1981
1978
1975
1972
1969
1966
1963
20
1960
20.2
29.4
1957
20.4
29.6
1954
20.6
1951
30
29.8
1966
20.8
1963
21
30.2
1960
21.2
30.4
1957
21.4
30.6
1954
30.8
1951
21.6
1948
y = 0.0137x - 6.0268
21.8
31
1948
31.2
Trends of Minimum Temperature
22
y = 0.0063x + 17.855
1969
Trends of Maximum Temperature
31.4
Min. Temp. = 1.37 0C/100 year
Meteorological Observational
Stations in Bangladesh
Station
Latitude
Longitude
Altitude
Max. Temp. (0C per
yr.)
Min. Temp. (0C per
yr.)
11704
Barisal
22.72
90.37
2.1 m
0.0077
-0.0163
11706
Bhola
22.68
90.65
4.3 m
0.0170
0.0206
10408
Bogra
24.85
89.37
17.9 m
0.0117
0.0404
11316
Chandpur
23.23
90.7
4.9 m
0.0163
0.0161
11921
Chittagong
22.35
91.82
33.2 m
0.0224
0.009
41926
Chuadanga
23.65
88.82
11.6 m
-0.0038
0.0217
11313
Comilla
23.43
91.18
9m
0.0049
-0.0009
11927
Cox's Bazar
21.45
91.97
2.1 m
0.0295
0.022
11111
Dhaka
23.78
90.38
6.5 m
0.0119
0.0225
10120
Dinajpur
25.65
88.68
37.6 m
-0.0213
0.0151
11505
Faridpur
23.93
89.85
8.1 m
0.0275
--
11805
Feni
23.03
91.42
6.4 m
0.0174
0.0331
11814
Hatiya
22.45
91.1
2.4 m
0.0261
-0.0202
10910
Ishardi
24.15
89.03
12.9 m
0.0032
0.0037
11407
Jessore
23.2
89.33
6m
0.0147
0.0113
12110
Khepupara
21.98
90.23
1.8 m
0.0266
0.0037
11604
Khulna
22.78
89.53
2.1 m
0.0037
-0.0053
11925
Kutubdia
21.82
91.85
2.7 m
0.0416
0.0248
11513
Madaripur
23.17
90.18
7m
0.0047
--
11809
Maijdicourt
22.87
91.1
4.9 m
0.0193
0.0204
41958
Mongla
22.47
89.6
1.8 m
0.0430
0.0104
10609
Mymensing
24.73
90.42
18 m
-0.0086
0.0086
12103
Patuakhali
22.33
90.33
1.5 m
0.0328
0.026
10320
Rajshahi
24.37
88.7
19.5 m
0.0110
0.0027
12007
Rangamati
22.63
92.15
68.9 m
-0.0039
-0.0178
10208
Rangpur
25.73
89.27
32.6 m
-0.0259
0.0281
11916
Sandwip
22.48
91.43
2m
0.0074
-0.0182
11610
Satkhira
22.72
89.08
4m
0.0065
0.0107
41858
Sayedpur
25.75
88.92
39.6 m
0.0266
--
11912
Sitakunda
22.63
91.7
7.3 m
0.0581
-0.0212
10724
Srimangal
24.3
91.73
22 m
0.0030
0.0237
10705
Sylhet
24.9
91.88
33.5 m
--
0.0057
41909
Tangail
24.25
89.93
10.2 m
0.0174
-0.0234
11929
Teknaf
20.87
92.3
5m
0.0242
0.0236
ID
Trends of Temperature
For 34 ground measuring
Stations of BMD
December
November
October
September
August
July
June
May
April
March
February
January
Temperature (0C)
Monthly temperature over
Bangladesh (1948-2007)
35
30
25
minimum
20
maximum
15
10
Month-wise Trends
Month
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
Max. Temp.
(0C per yr.)
-0.0142
0.0000
-0.0117
-0.0142
0.0010
0.0139
0.0116
0.0183
0.0070
0.0178
0.0270
0.0147
Min. Temp.
(0C per yr.)
0.0104
0.0340
0.0220
0.0121
0.0052
0.0103
0.0075
0.0081
0.0031
0.0078
0.0289
0.0270
Change of mean
Temperature(0C/year)
Average Temperature in January
(1948-2007)
Daily Maximum
Daily Minimum
Spatial Distribution of Trends of
Temperature (1947-2007)
Maximum Temperature
Minimum Temperature
Maximum increase: 0.0581 at Shitakunda
Minimum increase: -0.026 at Rangpur
Maximum increase: 0.0404 at
Bogra
Minimum increase: -0.023 at
Climate Change Impact for Bangladesh
 Increase of intensity and duration of natural
disasters such as floods, Cyclones and Storm
Surges.
 Increase of moisture stress (droughts) due to
erratic precipitation
 Salinity intrusion due to Sea Level Rise
 Inundation due to sea level rise leading towards
“Climate Refugees”
 Effect on health and livelihood of coastal
people.
 Effect on Bio-diversity, Ecology & Sundarbans.
 Hampered Food Security & Social Security.
The Sundarbans ..Mangrove
forest?
Facing Climate Change
• National Awareness building
– Capacity Building through Training
– Innovative Research for knowledge generations
• Mitigation
– Reduce Co2 emission, Use Green technology
– Use of Alternative Energy sources – Solar, Wind etc.
• Adaptation –
– Build Shelters, Rise Embankments & Polders, Roads,
Houses
– Salinity tolerant crops, Forestation, alternative livelihood,
improve warning system, migrations
• Global Awareness & Justice
– – Kyoto Protocol, COP15, COP16…. Raise our voice !
Regional Climate Change
Modeling for Bangladesh
Regional Climate change modeling
in Bangladesh
• PRECIS regional
climate modeling is
now running in
Climate change study
cell at IWFM,BUET.
• Uses LBC data from
GCM (e.g. HadCM3).
• LBC data available
for baseline, A2, B2,
A1B scenarios up to
2100.
• Predictions for every
hour. Needs more
than 100 GB free
space.
Domain used in PRECIS
experiment
Topography of Experiment
Domain
Simulation Domain = 88 x 88
Resolution = 0.44 degree
Zoom over Bangladesh
Predicted Change of Mean
Temperature (0C) using A1B
Baseline = 2000
2050
2090
Predicting Maximum
Temperature using A2 Scenarios
[Output of PRECIS model using SRES A2 scenario]
Predicting Minimum Temperature
using A2 Scenarios
[Output of PRECIS model using SRES A2 scenario]
Change of Mean Rainfall (mm/d)
using A1B Scenarios
Baseline = 2000
2050
2090
Predicting Rainfall using A2
Scenarios
[Output of PRECIS model using SRES A2 scenario]
Change of mean climatic variables
of Bangladesh using A1B
Scenarios
Temperate (0C)
Rainfall (mm/d)
Monthly Average Rainfall (mm/d)
Month
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
January
2.61
0.34
0.03
0.03
0.42
0.99
1.24
0.21
0.12
1.66
1.02
February
0.61
0.55
1.38
1.01
1.24
1.88
0.45
1.10
0.53
1.61
0.76
March
2.42
1.02
4.82
3.04
1.87
3.07
0.99
3.62
2.84
1.27
3.59
April
5.84
1.38
11.46
5.99
2.82
7.84
11.41
6.60
8.39
8.74
3.66
May
10.0
3
5.59
10.36
6.42
11.92
18.16
33.47
16.53
29.47
11.29
11.96
June
17.0
6
7.90
14.79
13.59
10.84
21.48
12.87
12.93
7.24
10.04
11.70
July
7.20
9.07
7.97
8.13
7.32
11.26
5.62
10.26
10.31
6.33
9.98
August
7.39
5.46
5.11
3.92
9.79
6.67
7.46
13.60
10.65
9.13
9.59
September
4.49
6.71
5.47
7.83
7.51
8.82
10.29
10.80
10.52
8.18
7.48
October
5.68
1.48
4.16
2.76
6.16
3.11
1.89
3.94
2.55
8.84
7.58
November
0.14
0.16
0.41
0.91
0.03
0.73
0.08
1.91
0.27
1.23
0.51
December
0.14
0.06
0.10
0.26
0.06
0.18
1.09
0.04
0.13
0.32
0.03
Monthly Average Temperature (0C)
Month
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
January
14.7
4
15.08
14.63
15.94
15.66
17.66
19.52
16.49
17.68
21.55
20.88
February
14.2
7
21.18
20.18
22.36
20.61
20.65
23.14
25.37
24.50
23.00
23.32
March
24.2
5
26.34
25.68
25.66
28.82
26.70
29.23
29.04
29.71
28.53
28.84
April
27.9
5
32.36
29.10
31.28
34.07
31.96
31.29
32.64
32.81
31.53
34.52
May
29.5
1
32.11
32.16
33.17
31.97
32.37
29.31
32.00
32.59
33.88
35.62
June
29.1
8
31.42
30.66
31.44
30.82
31.56
31.94
31.18
37.24
34.80
35.07
July
28.5
9
28.23
28.88
28.99
29.35
30.28
30.58
30.45
31.03
31.76
30.44
August
28.1
9
28.24
29.06
29.65
28.62
30.34
30.26
29.31
30.12
29.93
30.09
September
28.0
2
27.29
28.65
28.11
28.58
30.72
29.07
29.79
30.72
29.01
29.87
October
25.2
4
25.21
27.10
27.29
26.14
28.48
28.22
29.25
29.72
27.82
29.09
November
19.4
4
20.20
21.03
20.52
21.06
23.21
22.64
22.04
23.76
25.52
26.30
14.4
Summary
 Analysis of the historic data (1948-2007) shows that
daily maximum and minimum temperature has been
increased with a rate of 0.63 0C and 1.37 0C per 100
years respectively.
 PRECIS simulation for Bangladesh using A1B climate
change scenarios showed that mean temperature will
be increased at a constant rate 40C per 100 year from
the base line year 2000.
 On the other hand, mean rainfall will be increased by
4mm/d in 2050 and then decreased by 2.5mm/d in
2100 from base line year 2000.
Recommendations
• In future, Climate change predictions will be
generated in more finer spatial scale(~25km).
• PRECIS model will be simulated with other
Boundary condition data such as ECHAM5
using A1B scenarios.
• Results will be compared with other regional
climate models such as RegCM3 etc.