Transcript TWAS - Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology

Analyzing changes of temperature over
Bangladesh due to global warming using
historic data
Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam
Associate Professor
Bangladesh university of engineering and technology
Email: [email protected]
Introduction
 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) has reported in their fourth
assessment report that global surface
temperature increased 0.74 ± 0.18 °C
during the 100 years ending in 2005.
 In this context, long term changes of near
surface air temperature over Bangladesh
have been studied using the available
historic data collected by the Bangladesh
Meteorological Department (BMD).
Data
 Maximum
and
minimum
daily
temperature data of last sixty years
(1948-2007)
collected
from
34
stations of BMD located all over the
Bangladesh have been used in this
study.
 Trend analysis has been conducted on
monthly data for all the stations
Study Area
Trend Analysis
Increase 0.63 0C on 100 years scale
Trends of Maximum Temperature
31.4
y = 0.0063x + 17.855
31.2
31
30.8
30.6
30.4
30.2
30
29.8
29.6
2008
2005
2002
1999
1996
1993
1990
1987
1984
1981
1978
1975
1972
1969
1966
1963
1960
1957
1954
1951
1948
29.4
Trends of Minimum Temp
Increase 1.37 0C on 100 years scale
Trends of Minimum Temperature
22
y = 0.0137x - 6.0268
21.8
21.6
21.4
21.2
21
20.8
20.6
20.4
20.2
2008
2005
2002
1999
1996
1993
1990
1987
1984
1981
1978
1975
1972
1969
1966
1963
1960
1957
1954
1951
1948
20
Station
Latitude
Longitude
Altitude
Max. Temp. (0C per yr.)
Min. Temp. (0C per yr.)
11704
Barisal
22.72
90.37
2.1 m
0.0077
-0.0163
11706
Bhola
22.68
90.65
4.3 m
0.0170
0.0206
10408
Bogra
24.85
89.37
17.9 m
0.0117
0.0404
11316
Chandpur
23.23
90.7
4.9 m
0.0163
0.0161
11921
Chittagong
22.35
91.82
33.2 m
0.0224
0.009
41926
Chuadanga
23.65
88.82
11.6 m
-0.0038
0.0217
11313
Comilla
23.43
91.18
9m
0.0049
-0.0009
11927
Cox's Bazar
21.45
91.97
2.1 m
0.0295
0.022
11111
Dhaka
23.78
90.38
6.5 m
0.0119
0.0225
10120
Dinajpur
25.65
88.68
37.6 m
-0.0213
0.0151
11505
Faridpur
23.93
89.85
8.1 m
0.0275
--
11805
Feni
23.03
91.42
6.4 m
0.0174
0.0331
11814
Hatiya
22.45
91.1
2.4 m
0.0261
-0.0202
10910
Ishardi
24.15
89.03
12.9 m
0.0032
0.0037
11407
Jessore
23.2
89.33
6m
0.0147
0.0113
12110
Khepupara
21.98
90.23
1.8 m
0.0266
0.0037
11604
Khulna
22.78
89.53
2.1 m
0.0037
-0.0053
11925
Kutubdia
21.82
91.85
2.7 m
0.0416
0.0248
11513
Madaripur
23.17
90.18
7m
0.0047
--
11809
Maijdicourt
22.87
91.1
4.9 m
0.0193
0.0204
41958
Mongla
22.47
89.6
1.8 m
0.0430
0.0104
10609
Mymensing
24.73
90.42
18 m
-0.0086
0.0086
12103
Patuakhali
22.33
90.33
1.5 m
0.0328
0.026
10320
Rajshahi
24.37
88.7
19.5 m
0.0110
0.0027
12007
Rangamati
22.63
92.15
68.9 m
-0.0039
-0.0178
10208
Rangpur
25.73
89.27
32.6 m
-0.0259
0.0281
11916
Sandwip
22.48
91.43
2m
0.0074
-0.0182
11610
Satkhira
22.72
89.08
4m
0.0065
0.0107
41858
Sayedpur
25.75
88.92
39.6 m
0.0266
--
11912
Sitakunda
22.63
91.7
7.3 m
0.0581
-0.0212
10724
Srimangal
24.3
91.73
22 m
0.0030
0.0237
10705
Sylhet
24.9
91.88
33.5 m
--
0.0057
41909
Tangail
24.25
89.93
10.2 m
0.0174
-0.0234
11929
Teknaf
20.87
92.3
5m
0.0242
0.0236
ID
Trends of Temperature
For 34 ground measuring
Stations of BMD
Trends of Maximum Temp.
Trends of Minimum Temp.
Maximum Temperature
Maximum increase: 0.0581 at Shitakunda
Minimum increase: -0.026 at Rangpur
Minimum Temperature
Maximum increase: 0.0404 at Bogra
Minimum increase: -0.023 at Tangail
December
November
October
September
August
July
June
May
April
March
February
January
Temperature (0C)
Monthly temperature over
Bangladesh (1948-2007)
35
30
25
minimum
20
maximum
15
10
Month-wise Trends
Max. Temp.
(0C per yr.)
Min. Temp.
(0C per yr.)
January
-0.0142
0.0104
February
0.0000
0.0340
March
-0.0117
0.0220
April
-0.0142
0.0121
May
0.0010
0.0052
June
0.0139
0.0103
July
0.0116
0.0075
August
0.0183
0.0081
September
0.0070
0.0031
October
0.0178
0.0078
November
0.0270
0.0289
December
0.0147
0.0270
Month
Trends of minimum temp. in
January
Increase 1.04 0C in 100 years
Trends of Minimum Temperature
14
y = 0.0104x - 8.2864
13.5
13
12.5
12
11.5
11
10.5
2008
2005
2002
1999
1996
1993
1990
1987
1984
1981
1978
1975
1972
1969
1966
1963
1960
1957
1954
1951
1948
10
Trends of minimum temp. in
February
Increase 3.5 0C in 100 years
19
Trends of Minimum Temperature
18
y = 0.0352x - 54.638
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
2008
2005
2002
1999
1996
1993
1990
1987
1984
1981
1978
1975
1972
1969
1966
1963
1960
1957
1954
1951
1948
10
Average Temperature in January
(1948-2007)
Daily Maximum
Daily Minimum
Effect of Temperature rise on
Agriculture
 In winter season (Nov-Feb), the main
crops of Bangladesh are:
 Boro (rice), Wheat, Potato, vegetables.
 Increase of winter temperature can
reduce the environmental suitability
for wheat, potato and other
temperate crops grown in Rabi
season.
 It might benefit Boro paddy and
kharif crops.
Wheat growing areas and minimum
temperature trend map in January
Trends of minimum temp
Wheat coverage area
Effect on Potato:
Temperature derived from MODIS data during
January, 2006
Temperature map in January
Plantation starts on December
27
1.7
Temperature
fPAR
NDVI
LAI
1.5
1.3
days after plantation
96
104
88
80
72
64
0.5
56
15
48
0.7
40
17
32
0.9
27
19
19
1.1
3
21
vegetation index
23
11
Potato Field in Munshigonj
Mean Temp (deg C)
25
Presently working
 We are presently working on the future
prediction of temperature trends using
PRECIS regional climate change model.
 Climate Change Study Cell has been
formed in our university with vision of “to
establish itself as the premier knowledge
center on climate change risk and
adaptation for Bangladesh”.
http://teacher.buet.ac.bd/diriwfm/climate/
Conclusion
 Both daily minimum and maximum temperature shows
positive trends over Bangladesh. Increase of daily
maximum temp. is 0.63 0C and daily minimum temp is
1.37 0C in 100 years.
 Maximum increase of daily maximum temp. has
occurred in November at 2.7 0C and daily minimum
temp. has occurred in February at 3.4 0C in 100 years.
 Maximum increase of daily maximum temp. has
occurred as 5.810C at Shitakunda and daily minimum
temp. has occurred as 5.04 0C at Bogra in 100 years.
 Increase of winter temperature can reduce the
environmental suitability for wheat, potato and other
temperate crops grown in Rabi season.
Thank you