Transcript Engineered Solutions International

Environmental Decision-Making –
Does Theology Help?
Trinity College Bristol
10 March 2007
What is the Severn Barrage
and what will it do?
EurIng Prof Ian M. Arbon MSc, MBA, CEng
FIMechE, FASME, FEI, FInstR, MIoD
Engineered Solutions Internation
Overview of Presentation
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
The Severn Barrage
Recap on Sustainability
‘Energy’ and ‘Electricity’
Energy and Climate Change
The Energy Hierarchy
How is the UK responding?
The Severn Barrage
Concluding Thoughts
Engineered Solutions Internation
1. Recap on Sustainability
The Severn Barrage
Engineered Solutions Internation
Definition of Sustainability
Some of the best-known (and memorable)
definitions of Sustainability are:
“Development that meets the needs of the
present without compromising the ability of
future generations to meet their own needs.”
Bruntland Report (1987)
Or even more simply, “We have borrowed the
present from our children.”
Old African proverb
The Severn Barrage
Engineered Solutions Internation
Definition of Sustainability
Improving financial
gains for businesses
and society
ECONOMIC
The ‘Triple
Bottom
Line’ Effect
Sustain
-ability
Increasing
quality
of life
SOCIETAL
ENVIRONMENTAL
Reducing
negative
impacts on
environment
and health
Sustainability Diagram
The Severn Barrage
Engineered Solutions Internation
2. ‘Energy’ and ‘Electricity’
The Severn Barrage
Engineered Solutions Internation
Breakdown of Total UK Energy Usage
Source: Dr Sue Ions, British Nuclear Group (2005)
The Severn Barrage
Engineered Solutions Internation
Coverage of UK Energy in Energy Review
Actual split of energy types in UK
Transport
The Severn Barrage
Heat
Electricity
‘Coverage’ in the Energy Review
Source: P. Wolfe, REA (2006)
Engineered Solutions Internation
3. Energy and Climate Change
The Severn Barrage
Engineered Solutions Internation
Global Primary Energy Use
Global primary energy use, historical development from 1850 to 1990 and in the three cases to 2100, in Gtoe. The insert shows
global population growth, 1850 to 1990 and projections to 2100, in billion people. Source: Bos et al., 1992
The Severn Barrage
Engineered Solutions Internation
Global Fossil Fuel Carbon Emissions
Global carbon emissions
from fossil fuel (in billions
of tonnes of Carbon)
green curve [C] would lead to
CO2 stabilisation at ~450 ppmv
Source: World Energy Council (2000)
The Severn Barrage
Engineered Solutions Internation
A major challenge to international agreement on emissions reductions
Carbon Emissions per Capita
Carbon
Emissions per
Capita (2000)
versus
Population
The Severn Barrage
Engineered Solutions Internation
CO2 Contraction and Convergence
CO2
contraction
for 450 ppm
and
convergence
by 2030 to
globally
equal per
capita
emissions
rights
Source: Global Commons Institute (2003)
The Severn Barrage
Engineered Solutions Internation
Global Carbon Emissions
Compared with CO2 Stabilisation at
450 ppmv (510 ppmv CO2eq)
Source: IEA ‘World Energy Outlook’ (2006)
The Severn Barrage
Engineered Solutions Internation
Global Carbon Emissions
Compared with CO2 Stabilisation at 450 ppmv (510 ppmv CO2eq)
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
BAPS SCENARIO EXTRAPOLATED TO 2050
Source: IEA ‘World Energy Outlook’ (2006)
The Severn Barrage
Engineered Solutions Internation
Socolow’s Stabilisation Wedges
Stabilisation triangle includes 7 wedges, each of 25 GtC
Source: Prof Robert Socolow, 2004, Science 305:968-9720)
The Severn Barrage
Engineered Solutions Internation
4. The Energy Hierarchy
The Severn Barrage
Engineered Solutions Internation
Definition of the ‘Energy Hierarchy’
1 – Energy Conservation

2 – Energy Efficiency

3 – Renewable, Sustainable Energy
Supplies

4 – Other Low Carbon Energy Supplies

5 – Conventional Energy Supplies
The Severn Barrage
Engineered Solutions Internation
Definition of the ‘Energy Hierarchy’
1 – Energy Conservation (do not use as much energy)

2 – Energy Efficiency (find more efficient ways of
supplying/using energy)

3 – Renewable, Sustainable Energy Supplies (least
environmental impact)

4 – Other Low Carbon Energy Supplies (other GHG-reducing
supply sources)

5 – Conventional Energy Supplies (the way we currently do it)
The Severn Barrage
Engineered Solutions Internation
5. How is the UK responding?
The Severn Barrage
Engineered Solutions Internation
Power Generation Mix 1990-2005
Power Generation Mix (1990-2005)
100.00
90.00
80.00
Mt oil equivalent
70.00
Other
60.00
Hydro
Nuclear
50.00
Gas
Oil
40.00
Coal
30.00
20.00
10.00
0.00
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2005
2005
Year
Source: DUKES (2006)
The Severn Barrage
Engineered Solutions Internation
Power Generation Mix 1997-2005
Coal
+0.62%
Oil
-0.10%
Gas
+1.01%
Nuclear
-0.52%
Hydro
+0.01%
Other
+0.48%
Total
+1.50%
Average Annual Change in Mix
The Severn Barrage
Engineered Solutions Internation
How is the UK responding?
UK’s Self-Sufficiency in Fossil Fuels:
2002
Gas net exporter
Oil
net exporter
Coal net importer
2010
import 30%
modest importer
large importer
2020
import 80%
large importer
large importer
Source: PIU Energy Review, February 2002
Does this describe a sustainable situation?
The Severn Barrage
Engineered Solutions Internation
How is the UK responding?
EU Member State
Total Power From Renewables In The EU
Overall EU
Belgium
UK
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Ireland
Germany
Greece
Denmark
France
Italy
Spain
Finland
Portugal
Sweden
Austria
1997 actual
2010 targets
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Percentage of Total Power
The Severn Barrage
Engineered Solutions Internation
How is the UK responding?
Percentage of UK Electricity from Renewables:
UK
SCO
ENG+WAL
The Severn Barrage
1997
actual
2%
10%
1.8%
2010
target
10% (8%)
18% (23%)
9% (7%)
2020
aspiration
20% (15%)
40% (>50%)
18% (12%)
Engineered Solutions Internation
How is the UK responding?
Stop Press: 09 March 2007
EU leaders agree to introduce legislation which will
reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20% by 2020,
just 13 years from now.
Question: by how much has the UK reduced its GHG
emissions over the past nearly ten years since this
Government has been in office?
Er… they’ve actually increased over that period!
So, how are we going to reverse this trend?
How about a tidal barrage?
The Severn Barrage
Engineered Solutions Internation
6. The Severn Barrage
The Severn Barrage
Engineered Solutions Internation
Location
• Bristol Channel/
Severn Estuary
• Downstream of
Cardiff to Westonsuper-Mare
• 16 km length
The Severn Barrage
Engineered Solutions Internation
Tidal
Power
• The Barrage impounds the tide, then the water is
released through a turbine to generate electricity
• Proven Technology: La Rance in France has generated
tidal power reliably for over 35 years
The Severn Barrage
Engineered Solutions Internation
Barrage Operation
The Severn Barrage
Engineered Solutions Internation
Barrage Layout (1989 Report)
• 216 Turbines,
40MW each,
8640MW total
• 166 Sluices
35,000m2
• Ship Locks
• Small Locks
• Public Road
The Severn Barrage
Engineered Solutions Internation
Facts and Figures
 Annual Output 17 TWh (~5% of UK consumption)
 Installed Capacity 8640 MW
 Savings of CO2 emissions: 18Mt per year compared to Coal;
(equivalent to 3% of total UK Carbon emissions)
 Renewables Obligation:
 15% by 2015 (50-55TWh) - Barrage cannot contribute
 20% by 2020 would require a further 17TWh. Barrage
could contribute all of this - if sanctioned soon
 Capital Cost £8bn 1989  ~£14bn 2005 – needs re-estimate
 Security of supply benefit
The Severn Barrage
Engineered Solutions Internation
50
Typical Winter Demand
45
Demand (GW)
40
35
Barrage Output Mean
Spring Tides
30
25
20
15
Base Load supplied by
Nuclear, Gas and
Imports
10
5
00:00
21:00
18:00
15:00
12:00
09:00
06:00
03:00
00:00
0
Time of Day (hrs)
Power Generation (Spring Tide)
The Severn Barrage
Engineered Solutions Internation
50
Typical Winter Demand
45
Demand (GW)
40
35
Barrage Output Mean
Neap Tides
30
25
20
15
Base Load supplied by
Nuclear, Gas and
Imports
10
5
00:00
21:00
18:00
15:00
12:00
09:00
06:00
03:00
00:00
0
Time of Day (hrs)
Power Generation (Neap Tide)
The Severn Barrage
Engineered Solutions Internation
Flexibility of Output
10.0
Plant Output
Barrage Output (GW)
9.0
2 hours after
high tide
Limited
8.0
7.0
6.0
Water Limited
5.0
6 hours after
high tide
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
12:00
11:00
10:00
09:00
08:00
07:00
06:00
05:00
04:00
03:00
02:00
01:00
00:00
0.0
Time after High Tide
The Severn Barrage
Engineered Solutions Internation
Environmental Studies 1989
A total of 70 studies, with a budget of £2m, covering:
• Hydrodynamics (tides, currents, waves)
• Sediments, Salinity, Water Quality, Drainage
• Ecology, Birds, Fish
The Severn Barrage
Engineered Solutions Internation
Environmental Balance ?
• Loss of the unique harsh environment
• Some birds may lose habitat
• Marine life and other birds will increase
• Flood protection to estuary and rivers
• Carbon Saving
The environmental assessment needs to be updated
to account for the changes in the Estuary since the
1980s and also the changes in legislation
The Severn Barrage
Engineered Solutions Internation
Transport Key Issues
Ports and Shipping
• Forecast Shipping
Movements
• Size of Locks to suit
Avonmouth docks
Road and Rail
• Cost-benefit of a
Barrage Crossing
The Severn Barrage
Engineered Solutions Internation
Construction : Prefabricated Caissons
The Severn Barrage
Engineered Solutions Internation
Caisson
Construction
Sites
• 1989 report identified
potential UK sites shown
• Potential Sites in Europe
• Project and Employment
Benefits of using many
sites
The Severn Barrage
Engineered Solutions Internation
Construction
Sequence
(1989 Report)
The Severn Barrage
Engineered Solutions Internation
Turbine Installation
The Severn Barrage
Engineered Solutions Internation
9m Diameter Bulb Turbine
The Severn Barrage
Engineered Solutions Internation
Employment
(1989 report)
• 200,000 man years for construction
• 35,000 jobs at construction peak, distributed over
the UK, about half in the Severnside region
• 10,000 - 40,000 permanent jobs in the region
The Severn Barrage
Engineered Solutions Internation
Economics of the Project
Preliminary work in 2005 shows a positive return:
• carbon credits are necessary
- ROCs buyout
- ROCs recycle
valued by ILEX (April 2005 Central value)
• external benefits are additional
The Severn Barrage
Engineered Solutions Internation
Cost – Price relationship
10
9
8
Tax
7
Equity Return
6
Transmission Opex
Transmission Capex
Barrage Opex
Barrage Capex
ROC recycle
ROC buyout
5
4
Wholesale
electricity price
3
2
1
p/kWh 0
April 2005
money
The Severn Barrage
Cost
ILEX April Actual
2005 spot Price
market 7 Dec 05
forecast
Engineered Solutions Internation
Value of Externalities
1.8
Security of supply
1.6
1.4
1.2
Increased land &
property values
Job creation
1.0
0.8
Inward investment
0.6
0.4
p/kWh
Shared grid
strengthening costs
0.2
Flood damage
0.0
avoidance
The Severn Barrage
These indicative
values are a key
part of the
project value
Engineered Solutions Internation
Outline Program for Implementation
The Severn Barrage
Engineered Solutions Internation
7. Concluding Thoughts
The Severn Barrage
Engineered Solutions Internation
Concluding Thoughts
• The Severn Barrage is one of very few projects in the
UK which could bring the UK’s “electricity from
renewables” commitment back on target by 2020
• The ‘real’ solution to the renewables targets is not
‘large projects’ versus ‘small projects’ – both will be
necessary – cf. Socolow’s wedges
• Following the ‘Triple Bottom Line’ analysis, there are
Economic, Environmental and Societal benefits
• The Barrage is a truly renewable, sustainable,
predictable, indigenous source of electricity, which
provides real security of supply
• If not the Severn Barrage, then what?
The Severn Barrage
Engineered Solutions Internation
Environmental Decision-Making –
Does Theology Help?
Trinity College Bristol
10 March 2007
What is the Severn Barrage
and what will it do?
Thank you for your attention during this
presentation
Engineered Solutions Internation
Sediment
Types
Rock & Gravel
Sandy Area
-5m OD Contour Line
Muddy Area
The Severn Barrage
Engineered Solutions Internation
Main effects of the Barrage
• Tide Range reduced from 14m to 7m (springs)
 Smaller inter-tidal area
• Reduction of Sediment in Suspension
 Improved water quality
 Greater ecological productivity
The Severn Barrage
Engineered Solutions Internation
Reduced sediment in suspension
Currents will be reduced within Barrage leading to:
 A large reduction in suspended sediment
 A more stable seabed
 Sunlight penetration through the water column
 An Increase in dissolved oxygen to more normal levels
These changes will result in colonisation by a range of
estuarine organisms (absent in the existing harsh regime)
and an increase in bird species and numbers
The Severn Barrage
Engineered Solutions Internation
Gloucester
Cardiff
Bristol
Areas at Risk from Flooding
The Severn Barrage
Engineered Solutions Internation
Flood protection in the
Severn Estuary and Rivers
• Flooding in the estuary can occur when extreme high
tides coincide with storm surges
• Flooding in the rivers can occur when these same sea
conditions coincide also with high river flows
• The water level in the basin can be controlled  To prevent the flooding in the estuary (upstream of
the barrage)
 To avoid obstruction to river flow caused by high
tides
The Severn Barrage
Engineered Solutions Internation
Use Of Barrage for Flood Protection
The Severn Barrage
Engineered Solutions Internation