Transcript SCR 1284 and its implications

SCR 1284 and its
implications
Colin Rowat, co-ordinator
Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq
14 February 2000
Liberation & CLESIP meeting
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Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq
About CASI
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a registered society at the University of Cambridge;
narrow humanitarian mandate:
 exclusively
concerned with the humanitarian
consequences of sanctions on Iraq;
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does not support Saddam Hussein's regime;
does not take a position on:
 military
sanctions on Iraq;
 US/UK bombing of Iraq.
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Overview
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Context of SCR 1284
SCR 1284
 Preamble
 A.
Unmovic
 B. Kuwaiti claims
 C. Humanitarian improvement within OFF
 D. Sanctions’ suspension
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Questions
Conclusions
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Context: search for consensus?
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US/UK bombing (12/98):
 no
UN authorisation, dubious motives
 Unscom not allowed back to Iraq
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Panel reports commissioned (1/99)
 Humanitarian
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report: Annex II of S/1999/356 (30/3/99)
French proposal (13/1/99) + UK/Dutch proposal
17/12/99 SCR 1284 passed with 4 abstentions
(intellectual context: these sanctions have failed)
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SCR 1284: Preamble
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commitment to, among other things:
 "establishing
in the Middle East a zone free from
weapons of mass destruction and all missiles for their
delivery and the objective of a global ban on chemical
weapons”
 "sovereignty, territorial integrity and political
independence of Kuwait, Iraq and the neighbouring
States”
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expressed since SCR 687 (3/4/91) but largely ignored
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SCR 1284: A. Unmovic
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Unmovic = Unscom + disarmament panel
recommendations, “as appropriate”
 greater
independence from Member States
(“International Civil Servants subject to Article 100” of UN
Charter)
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gives Unmovic up to 135 days to return to Iraq
 behind
schedule (Blix’s appointment)
 approving “organizational plan” may be easy
 getting into Iraq probably harder
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SCR 1284: B. Kuwaiti claims
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re-iterates Iraqi responsibility to return Kuwaiti and third
country property and nationals
 Kuwait
claims 605 missing persons cases still open
 Iraq continues to refuse to co-operate with the “Tripartite
Commission” established to address these concerns
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SCR 1284: C. Humanitarian
improvement within OFF
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Caveat: “Regardless of the improvements that might be
brought about in the implementation of the current
humanitarian programme … the magnitude of the
humanitarian needs is such that they cannot be met
within the context of the parameters set forth in
resolution 986 (1995) and … resolution 1153 (1998).”
[Humanitarian Panel Report]
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Selected measures in section C
Proposal
Panel
UK/Dutch SCR 1284 Comments
lift oil sales
cap
para. 54
(i)
para. 16
para. 15
“green list”
para. 55
(i)
para. 23
para. 17
humanitari
an
assistance
interest
funds
suspension
para. 54
(v)
para. 29
para. 19
para. 54
(vii)
para. 25
para. 20
domestic
purchases
+ cash
component
compensat
ion fund
suspension
para. 56
(i), (ii)
para. 28
para. 24
para. 54
(vi)
para. 24
--
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-
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good
overdue
useless without pumping capacity
good: speeds processing and adds transparency
OIP finalising list for presentation to SC
n.b. no infrastructural items
14/1/00: Annan: “I have repeatedly encouraged
the international community … I regret that the
response thus far has not been encouraging.”
< $40 million / year; or
2 year's of high protein biscuits for malnourished
children & pregnant/lactating mothers
2 year’s ICRC 2000 Iraq budget
free imports undermine Iraqi economy
Select Committee report notes this (para. 119,
120)
UK/Dutch wanted 1/3
U.S. influence?
Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq
SCR 1284: D. Sanctions’ suspension
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“intention” to suspend sanctions if Iraq co-operates “in
all respects” for 120 days
“fundamental objective” of the suspension is “improving
the humanitarian situation in Iraq”
suspensions “subject to the elaboration of effective
financial and other operational measures”
two fold uncertainty:
“in all respects” on undefined work plan
 what sort of suspensions?
 co-operate
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Questions
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will Iraq co-operate?
 France,
China and Russia abstained
 regime more stable than in 1991
 1284 offers regime few carrots but asks it to trust US
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will Iraq be back in the news in 2000?
 getting
Unmovic in risks tension
 U.S. election year: avoid or play tough?
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humanitarian consequences?
 little
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promise of more money v. lots already in account
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Conclusions
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humanitarian possibilities real but less than Panel’s
 does
the FCO have projections for expected
humanitarian outcomes of 1284. If not, unclear that 1284
can be regarded as a serious humanitarian initiative.
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sanctions’ suspension link to GoI co-operation reaffirms
failed 1991 formula
failure to take trust building steps (i.e. can GoI trust
US?) likely to hinder implementation
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