Transcript Darzi Design Models - University of Leeds

Darzi Fellow
Programme Design
Principles
Individual
Small groups ( teams)
Organisations
Systems
Learning
Shaping behaviours
Sense Making
(ways of seeing things)
Multiple
perspectives
How do you know?
( sorts of evidence)
Designing
Interventions
What do you do?
Making things
happen with others
Helping individuals
play their part
Learning
organisations
Self
reflective practice
Learning
Shaping behaviours
Learning with others
collaboratives
Helping others
learn
Systems
Dynamics
(Senge)
Complex ‘living
systems Theory
Improvement
Science
( Plasek)
Problem finding
as well as problem
solving
Tame & Wicked
Problems and
their ‘solution’
Sense Making
(ways of seeing things)
Evaluation of
complex
interventions
(MRC)
?
The 10 properties of wicked problems*
1. There is no well- defined uncontested statement of the problem.
2. There are no stopping rules so you don’t know when you have reached
a solution.
3. Solutions to wicked problems are not true or false. Choosing is
judgement based, not objective, so good or bad.
4. There is no immediate and no ultimate test of a solution because they
generate unexpected consequences and can change the environment.
5. Every solution is a ‘one shot’ operation’ no opportunity to learn by trial
or error because it has consequences, that cannot be undone.
6. They do not have an exhaustively described set potential solutions,
just many possibilities. Nor are there a well described set of possible
operations that may be part of a plan.
7. They are part of a class of problems but each is essentially unique.
8. They are not self contained and don’t have one root cause. They can be
considered a symptom of other problems.
They involve many stakeholders who may have different ideas about both
the nature of the problem and possible solutions
You will be held accountable for inevitable unintended consequences. The planner has no
right to be wrong.
* Camillus, John C.. Harvard Business Review, May2008, Vol. 86 Issue 5, p98-106
Dialogic processes
Deliberative
processes
Political
processes
Community Building
processes
? processes
Designing Interactions
If you see things this way
what do you do?
Strategic
processes
Project management
processes
? processes
? processes
Redesign
processes
Deliberative processes
Opinion
Evidence
Experience
The Halo effect – and the other eight Business delusions
Phil Rosenzweig 2007 Free Press ( Simon and Schuster New York)
The 8 delusions
Halo – the ‘glow’ formed by high performance not the cause of it
• Confusing correlation and causation
• Single explanations
• Survivor bias - connecting the winning dots
• Lots of data not equivalent to rigorous research – halos all the way
down
• Success in the past does nor predict future success
• Focus on absolute performance or relative?
• Wrong end of the stick (desire to identify trends may detect wrong
directionality, infer causes that cannot be sustained)
• Delusion of organisational physics
Independent variables have to be measured independently
otherwise the data is full of ‘Halos’
Success rarely lasts as long as we’d like attributions to the causes of long term
success are often subject to survivor bias
Success is relative not absolute - the performance of competitors may improve more
Some successful companies bet on long shots but this often leads to failure (
Hedgehog and Fox)
Anyone who claims to have found the laws of business physics either understands
little about business or little about physics
Searching for the secrets of success reveals more about the researchers than the
world of business
A good strategy always involves risk. If you think it is fool proof, the fool may be you
Execution is uncertain too – what works in one company with one workforce may have
different results elsewhere
Chance plays a greater role than many of us who are successful want to admit
The links between inputs and outcomes is tenuous. Bad outcomes don’t always mean
managers made mistakes
When the die is cast, the best mangers act as if chance is irrelevant –persistence and
tenacity are every thing