Transcript Opportunities... higher education

The changing landscape of higher education
in Canada
Canadian Association of University Business Officers
Halifax, 2003
Ken Snowdon
This presentation includes speaking notes that
can be viewed in powerpoint.
Snowdon & Associates Inc.
Outline
• The Challenge - demography and
participation rates
• Student expectations…
• Developments….
• Looking to the future
The Challenge….
• greatest enrolment increase since the 1960’s-70’s “echo boom”
• providing opportunity for all who are qualified
• against a background of:
– replacement and expansion of an aging professoriate
– ambitious research and innovation agenda
– intense competition for public resources
Demographics, Participation and Enrolment
Revised MTCU Projection (2002)
Actual
Projected
“Echo” 350
1,200
300
1,000
250
800
26.6%
600“ Boomers”
21.7%
400
200
0
1965
400
200
150
Revised
100
Projected
14.8%
50
8.5%
1975
18-24 Population
1985
FT Enrolment
1995
0
2005
Participation Rate
2015
FT Enrolment (000's);
18-24 Population (000's)
1,400
Population change, 18 to 21 age cohort
Youth population growth will vary widely over
the next decade
25%
20%
British
Columbia
15%
10%
5%
Canada
Ontario
Projections 2001-2011
Alberta
Manitoba
Nova Scotia
0%
-5%
-10%
Quebec
Saskatchewan
Prince Edward
Island
New Brunswick
-15%
-20%
-25%
Source: Statistics Canada, Demographic Estimates, 2001 (AUCC Trends Fig. 1.10)
Newfoundland
Enrolment demand fuelled by….
• ‘echo boom’
• increased participation rates
– more university educated parents
– greater interest in economic and social benefits of a university
education
– labour market demand and better employment opportunities for
university educated employees
– federal gov’t innovation agenda and reliance on highly qualified
personnel
– heightened recognition of the advantages of university education
AUCC, Trends in Higher Education, 2002
AUCC, Trends in Higher Education, 2002
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Participation rate, 18-21 age cohort
Participation Rates...
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Source: OECD Education Database 2002, data represents 1998-99
The fastest growing occupations require the
most education
All Occupations
Trades & Transport, Primary, Mfg & Processing
Management Occupations
Health Occupations
Sales and Service Occupations
Social Science, Education, Government & Religion
Art, Culture, Recreation and Sport
Professional Occupations in Business and Finance
Natural and Applied Sciences
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Growth in full-time employment, 1990 to 2001
Proportion with a university degree, 2001
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, 2001 (AUCC Trends Fig. 1.10)
Student Expectations
• Two-thirds of high school graduates want to obtain a
university degree (Youth in Transition - 2002)
• Actual participation of 18-21 year olds is about 20-25%
• There is clearly room for more participation especially as
graduation rates increase
• Increased expectations for Special Ed students
– Ontario - $1.4 Billion per year in Special Ed funding
– increased by a further $250 million
Student expectations...
Intended Degree
2002
1998
Bachelors (excl. Law, Ed, Med)
Masters (excl. MBA)
MBA
Doctorate
Medical
Law
Teaching
Don't Know
19.5%
17.8%
10.2%
10.5%
10.7%
6.3%
7.4%
17.7%
19.6%
18.8%
10.5%
10.7%
11.0%
5.8%
4.9%
15.5%
Student expectations...
Intended Degree
2002
1998
Bachelors (excl. Law, Ed, Med)
Masters (excl. MBA)
MBA
Doctorate
Medical
Law
Teaching
Don't Know
Source:
COU / Acumen, University Applicant Survey, 2002
COU, Facts and Figures, 2000 Table 3.6.4
19.5%
17.8%
10.2%
10.5%
10.7%
6.3%
7.4%
17.7%
19.6%
18.8%
10.5%
10.7%
11.0%
5.8%
4.9%
15.5%
Actual Degrees
# 1998 % 1998
45,405
6,715
2,043
1,547
685
1,615
5,959
69.5%
10.3%
3.1%
2.4%
1.0%
2.5%
9.1%
65,369
100.0%
Full-time enrolment
Demand for full-time enrolment is expected to
increase rapidly
850,000
Historical data
800,000
Projection scenario 1: limited growth
750,000
Projection scenario 2: stronger growth
700,000
650,000
600,000
550,000
500,000
450,000
400,000
350,000
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999 2002e 2005e 2008e 2011e
Source: Statistics Canada data and AUCC estimates
Meeting the demand...
• Capacity constraints…government funding policy has always been a
limiting factor
• AUCC projects a required increase of over $6 Billion (60%) in overall
funding across Canada to support growth and quality improvements by
2011.
• To simply ‘fund’ 100,000 more students in Ontario, the operating
‘price tag’ is about $1.4 Billion - and that is without any ‘quality’
improvements.
• IF ‘broadening’ participation involves more public investment, that
simply adds to the cost...
• Government(s) will look to other options….
Changing landscape…developments in play
• College / University Collaborative Degrees
• College / University articulation agreements
• Expanded distance education offerings from various
jurisdictions and numerous universities
• Private ‘for profits’ begin to operate in Canada –
University of Phoenix – Vancouver BC
• New College (CAAT’s) Charter (Ontario)
• University of Ontario Institute of Technology (UOIT)
• Increased recruitment among provinces
• applied degrees for colleges
• Increased emphasis on PSE ‘transfer’ protocols
Bill 132 – Post-Secondary Choice and
Excellence Act, 2000 Ontario
• Allows 3 year ‘pilot’ program of applied degrees
for colleges ( 8 new programs per year)
• Allows private universities to operate in Ontario
• Allows universities from other jurisdictions to
locate into Ontario
• Establishes the Postsecondary Education Quality
Assessment Board as the “quality control” agency
• Minister has increased degree granting authority
Applied Degrees and Private
Institutions in Alberta
• 27 Applied degrees approved (2003)
• Private Colleges Accreditation Board
(1984) Alberta
– Gov’t 1998 removed condition of affiliation
with existing university
– 2001 DeVry Calgary Institute of Technology
2003/04 – 2005/06 SERVICE PLAN
Ministry of Advanced Education
BC
“Encouraging a strong private post-secondary education
sector is an integral part of government’s commitment to access and
choice in education. New initiatives, such as the passage of the Degree
Authorization Act, were undertaken over the past year to ensure more
opportunities and choice for students, and provide a more level playing
field for private institutions.
• two academic degree granting institutions with separate Acts, 10
private theological colleges with individual Acts, 15 out-of-country
degree granting institutions
• private bill establishes Sea to Sky University as a private not-for-profit
university
Realities…..
• Quality Assessment Board - looked to UK for “degree
level standards”
• Notable absence of ‘quality standards’ in Canada
• October 2002, workshop for ‘private applicants’ to QAB 50 organizations
• private universities are part of higher ed in many countries
• For profit higher education is growth industry in the U.S.
Update
+9.5% in 1st
Q03
The future….
• Increased interest in higher education
• ‘opening up’ the higher education sector
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
private non-profits
private “for profits”
‘publics’ from other jurisdictions
amalgamations / mergers
branch campuses
college role as “feeders”
‘accreditation’ issues
• programs for students studying in other jurisdictions
• greater demand for graduate and professional education
Summary
• The anticipated growth over the next decade will fuel an
expansion that, in terms of size, will be similar to the
increase in the 1960’s-70’s … and the ‘demand’ may be
substantially higher
• That demand will result in an expansion of the existing
university system AND an “opening up” of the system
• Provincial Government funding will be constrained - and
aimed at access
• Government will look for and encourage other options
Conclusions
• The scramble for public investment will continue
• The federal gov’t will continue to invest in selective ways
–leading to greater ‘tiering’ among the public universities
• Private universities will emerge to fill lucrative ‘niche’
markets
• University community needs to be aware of these
developments and be prepared to compete and deal with
new PSE ‘entities’.