Transcript Brad Greening Project: Duration of infectivity and disease

Brad Greening
Rutgers University
Duration of Infectivity and Disease in Dynamic Networks
Bobby Zandstra
Florida Gulf Coast University
Long- vs. Short-term Friendships and the Spread of Disease
Mentor: Prof. Nina Fefferman
Presentation Date: June 17, 2008
Overview
 Previous Research Performed
 Goals of Projects
 Questions and Pathways to Successful Projects
 Conclusion
Key Terms
Social Network
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SEIS Model
Previous Research Performed
 Model disease spread within dynamic networks where associations
shift based on three different measures of network centrality.
 Metrics
 Betweenness
 Closeness
 Degree
 Results
 New Directions to Take?
 Fefferman, N.H. and K.L Ng. 2007. The role of individual choice in the evolution of
social complexity. Annales Zoologici Fennici, 44:58-69.
 Fefferman, N.H. and K.L Ng. 2007. How disease models in static networks can fail to
approximate disease in dynamic networks. Phys. Rev. E 76, 031919
Questions to Address
Duration of infectivity and
disease in dynamic networks
Long- vs. Short-term friendships
and the spread of disease
 What happens if we make the
 By keeping long term
following adjustments to the
dynamic workings of the
network:
 If we include a fixed structure
such as a “family”?
 If individuals make “smart”
decisions concerning what
friends they pick up?
 If individuals aren’t “social” once
they become sick?
friendships and minimizing
short-term contacts, are you less
prone to getting a disease?
 Varying the percentages of longvs. short-term social contacts on
patterns of disease spread in a
population over time.
 Varying the percentage of each
duration of friendship among
social contacts over time will
affect disease dynamics.
Pathways to Successful Projects
Duration of infectivity and
disease in dynamic networks
Long- vs. Short-term friendships
and the spread of disease
 Assign a family structure to
 Determine the length of a
certain nodes in the network
 Implement “smart” decision
making to the friend “pickup” stage.
 Implement a fixed structure
once an individual becomes
sick
long and short term
friendship
 Vary duration of long and
short term friendships.
 Vary percentage of long and
short term friendships.
 Randomly place disease in
network.
Goals of Project
Duration of infectivity and
disease in dynamic networks
 Determine how relative
durations of social and
disease processes interact to
shape epidemics; search for
variations in disease
incidence (or rate of
occurrence), duration, and
spread caused by these
different dynamics in the
social network.
Long- vs. Short-term friendships
and the spread of disease
 By keeping long term
friendships and varying the
percentage of short and long
term contacts, we will show
close knit networks of
individuals contribute to the
evolution of the role of a
family structure in society.
Questions?