Transcript TREND ANALYSIS

TREND ANALYSIS
ASSIGNMENT
CIS Writing
Mara Corey, Irondale High School
Basic Features of Trend
Analysis
• Presentation of Trend
• A Convincing Causal Argument
• An Prediction or Discussion of
Future
For most people, the terms "trend"
and "fad“ are used
interchangeably.
• When the media tell us "what's
hot" they label them as trends.
• Someone who wears the latest
fashions or has obscure new
music on their iPod is called
"trendy."
In other words, fads are
short-term fanaticisms; a
blip in culture time whereby
it seems the whole world is
joined in the same craze.
Exciting and electric as they
are, they burn out fast.
A fad is a fast and furious practice,
product, or interest, fueled by
tremendous hype and followed by a
deep decline.
Usually isolated to a few market
segments, or particular demographic
groups, fads are self-contained,
short-lived phenomena.
Witness the short-lived
era of the Trucker Hat
(2001-2003, depending
on whom you ask).
Or Rubik's Cubes, virtual
reality, grunge, pogs,
and countless others.
We want fad amnesia, to forget them
and bury them away. . . at least until
the next generation revives them as
retro goofs. That's because they
stand for a certain point in time that
we have moved past.
Trends, though, may represent
long-term changes or movements
that are substantial to society. They
become part of our DNA, even
though they may begin with just a
few people, the trendsetters.
A trend is a slower, steadier
development. Trends are
characterized by new ways of
doing business, new lifestyle
practices, the changing needs of
customers and new products or
services that render older ones
obsolete.
While trends don’t usually generate
as much enthusiasm as fads and take
longer to develop, they are longer
lasting and far more widespread.
Instead of plummeting to their
demise, many trends evolve into
permanent shifts in the ways we live,
work, and interact with others.
Many types of trends exist,
including industrial, economic,
societal, cultural,
demographic, and
technological.
What you’re looking for . . .
• Some service, product, behavior, or value
that extends in one direction, follows a
course that is traceable over time.
• A line of movement that shows a
prevailing inclination, a statistically
detectable change.
• A shift or veer in a new direction that is
more than a current style or preference.
Fads span several categories
as well as, most notably,
entertainment, fashion and
lifestyle.
Both trends and fads begin on
the fringe and move toward
the center (the mainstream),
but fads fall away, while
trends continue to penetrate
larger groups with lasting
effects.
Uncovering the epiphany Fads create a frenzy and fade;
trends spur a transformation
in our culture.
More fascinating still, many
fads are the byproducts of
larger, looming trends.
Take the portable
music trend
spurred by the
eighties boom
box, which then
evolved into the
nineties walkman
and matriculated
into the
millennium with
the iPod.
While the hardware has been
replaced with devices that are
more popular and portable,
this trend has rocked steady
for decades (and may already
be classified as a permanent
shift).
Trendsetters get the ball rolling,
like the first geeks who began file
sharing on the Internet in the
mid-nineties.
They led to the digitization of
music, which has built new
industries and changed the way
most of us consume music.
Or JFK, a trendsetter in
many ways, who was
credited with
influencing men in the
early sixties to go
hatless. Since then,
practically no one
outside of a costume
party, swing band, or
Mafia film wears a
Fedora.
Trends have staying
power.
No matter how long since their
initial popularity, they still
matter.
Take hip-hop music:
• It could have been labeled an early eighties fad
given its centrality on the streets of NYC.
• Now it's at the foundation of our popular
culture.
• From Billboard and MTV to ad jingles, with the
look and fashion adorned by Midwestern high
school kids.
• Hip-hop and urbanization of culture was a
trend that took hold over the last twenty years.
Real trends have depth.
Something causes their
popularity and
acceptance.
In the example above,
hip-hop must have
fused itself to our
culture for a reason.
Understanding that is the job
of sociologists,
trendwatchers, market
researchers and other
professionals who are sought
to analyze society and
forecast the trends that will
change the game.
Real trendwatchers . . .
• Use analysis to understand what is
behind the fad.
• Examine why the trend is here.
• Predict its potential to develop into a
trend.
• Are wary of the latest hype and media
spin, which often portray minor
movements as national sensations.
Some tips to help
YOU be a trendwatcher . . .
First, prove
the trend
exists.
Presentation of Trend
• Introduce engagingly
• Prove existence of trend through
anecdotes, statistics
• Provide details, background, current
status
• Thesis: identify both the trend and the
main reason or reasons for the existence
of the trend
Track the trend’s progression.
Is it progressing or
regressing?
Trends steadily progress and
build momentum over time.
Second,
determine
what's driving
the trend’s
development.
Make a
convincing
case for a
particular
cause (s)
In order to effectively
analyze a trend, as opposed
to simply reporting on a
trend, you must consider the
effects of the trend on the
culture.
Research
A. Confirms your own hunches about the
trend
B. Suggests other causes for the trend
C. Provides evidence in support of your
proposed causes
D. Suggests effects of the trend
E. Suggests problems/solutions for the
trend
If applicable,
suggest possible
solutions for the
trend.
How do you start?
• Valuable information is everywhere you look.
• Read magazines, newspapers, and web articles; and
watch TV news shows to spot recurring themes.
• Scan Web sites, forums, and chat rooms. File away
information for future reference.
• Examine whether the fads around you add up to the
deeper, wider trends.
• Recognize that the obvious often isn't so obvious. You
may see something in front of you, but when you
analyze it, you see it's really something else. How
many people go out and jog for an hour, then go
home and eat a pint of ice cream? That's fitness and
fatness in the same person.