I S A A A I S A A A

Global Adoption, Impact and Future Prospects of Commercialized GM/Biotech Crops, 1996 - 2007 Istanbul Forum, Turkey, April, 2008

by Clive James, Chair, ISAAA Board of Directors International Service for the Acquisition of Agri-biotech Applications (ISAAA) http://www.isaaa.org

A Food, Feed, & Fiber Strategy to Double Global Production by 2050

I S A A A

• • •

NO SINGLE APPROACH will allow food, feed, and fiber production to be doubled SUSTAINABLY by 2050 for 9 billion people Conventional crop improvement ALONE will not double crop production by 2050 – GM/BIOTECH CROPS NOT A PANACEA but important Successful strategy must have MULTIPLE APPROACHES that address all the principal issues that include:

•

Population Stabilization

•

Improved food distribution systems

•

A Technology Component is ESSENTIAL -- A crop improvement STRATEGY THAT INTEGRATES the BEST of CONVENTIONAL AND the BEST of BIOTECH to optimize productivity to CONTRIBUTE to food feed, fiber & biofuel security

International Cereal Prices 2006-2008

I S A A A

US$/tonne

450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0

Rice Wheat Maize

J F M A M J 2006 J A S O N D J F M A M J 2007 J A S O N D J 2008

Source: FAO, Feb. 2008

Global Area (Million Hectares) of Biotech Crops, 2007: by Country I S A A A

M Acres 1976

800 Accumulated Global Area of Biotech Crops, 1996 to 2007 (Million Hectares)

1729

700 666 million hectares = 1.6 billion acres

1482

600

1235

500

988

400

741

300

494

200

247

100

0

0 I S A A A 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Source: Clive James, 2007

2007 Highlights - Area continues to soar

I S A A A

•

114.3 million hectares planted globally 12.3 million ha increase 12% - 2 nd highest in 5 years

• •

114.3 m. has in 23 countries , Chile and Poland new countries in 2007 Fastest adoption rate of any crop technology

•

12 mill. Farmers planted biotech crops in 2007 , or 11mill. are resource-poor farmers – 1 st time to 90% exceed 10 million small farmers in dev. countries

•

Of 6.5 billion global population 55%, equivalent to 3.6 billion, lived in the 23 biotech countries in 2007 Source: Clive James 2008

Impact of Biotech Crops

I S A A A Source; Compiled by Clive James , 2008

•

IMPROVED PRODUCTIVITY AND INCOME – Increased yields of 5 to 50%. Farm income gains of $7 billion in 2006 & $34 billion 1996-2006; $17.5 billion in industrial, $16.5 billion in dev countries

•

PROTECT BIODIVERSITY - Double crop production on same area of land save the forests/biodiversity - 13m ha loss/year in DCs

•

ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT - Reduce need for external inputs Saving of 289,000 MT a.i. pesticides from 1996 to 2006 Saved 15 bill kg C0 2 in 2006 6.5m less cars - climate change - Conservation of soil & WATER = SUSTAINABILITY

•

SOCIAL BENEFITS - Contribution to alleviation of poverty of 11 million small farmers in 2007, compared with 9.3 million in 2006

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Improved environment & socio-economic benefits

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More affordable food, feed, fiber and fuel

Biotech Crops – Global Economic Benefits: 1996 to 2006, and 2006 – Lead countries 1996-2006 ALL COUNTRIES USA Argentina China Brazil India Canada Others

Source: Brookes and Barfoot 2008

$ 33.7 billion $ 15.9 billion $ 6.6 billion $ 5.8 billion $ 1.9 billion $ 1.3 billion $ 1.2 billion $ 1.0 billion I S A A A 2006 $ 7.0 billion $ 2.9 billion $1.3 billion $0.8 billion 0.6 billion $0.8 billion $0.3 billion $0.3 billion

Projections for the 2

nd

Decade, 2006 - 2015

I S A A A

# of Biotech Countries # of Farmers Planting Biotech Crops Global Biotech Area

2007

23

2015

~ 40 12 million up to 100 million 114 million hectares ~ 200 million hectares Source: Clive James, 2007

GLOBAL AREA OF BIOTECH CROPS Million Hectares (1996 to 2007) I S A A A 140 120 100 80 60 40 Total Industrial Developing 23 Biotech Crop Countries 20 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Increase of 12%, 12.3 million hectares (30 million acres), between 2006 and 2007.

Source: Clive James, 2007.