Transcript Document

Global Status of
Commercialized
Biotech/GM Crops 2010
Clive James, Chair, ISAAA
Randy A. Hautea, Global Coordinator, ISAAA
and Director, ISAAA SEAsiaCenter
Public Forum on Science Communication, April 6, 2011, Biopolis, Singapore
International Service for the
Acquisition of Agri-biotech Applications
About Us
Mission
Help increase crop productivity and
income generation, and bring about a
safer environment and more sustainable
agricultural development.
Major Programs
Facilitate sharing of information and
experiences on crop biotechnology
through a global network;
Transfer and deliver appropriate
biotechnology applications to developing
countries
Information
Knowledge
Experiences
SHARING…
Capacities
Technologies
Resources
The Global Challenge
Producing More with Less in A Sustainable Way
Double food production on
same/less land area, water,
nutrients, energy by 2050
Increasing world population
6.5B to 8B by 2025 and 9.2B by 2050
Decreasing cultivable land per capita
0.45 ha. in 1966 to 0.15 ha. in 2050
Lower growth in grain yields
Less than 1.0 % per annum in 1990s
Malnutrition/Poverty
~ 1billion people malnourished or hungry
>1 billion afflicted by poverty
Climate change
Limited water availability
New pests and diseases
Prices of Commodities ($/ton) and Oil
($/barrel), January 2006 to December 2010
Soybean
Wheat
Maize
Cotton
Rice
Rice, Wheat, Maize, Soybean in US$/mil ton,
Cotton in US$ cents/pound
1200
1000
Crude Oil Price
Soybea
n
Maize
Cotton
140
2006
285
214
103
59
High
1,016
554
287
168
2010
537
484
251
168
120
100
800
80
600
60
400
40
200
20
0
January
F
M
A
M
J
2006 J
A
S
O
N
D
January
F
M
A
M
J
2007 J
A
S
O
N
D
January
F
M
A
M
J
2008 J
A
S
O
N
D
January
F
M
A
M
J
2009 J
A
S
O
N
D
January
F
M
A
M
J
2010 J
A
S
O
N
D
0
Source: Compiled by Clive James, 2011
Crude Oil Price in US$/Barrel
Rice
Global Society’s Questions re:
GM/Biotech Crops
•
•
•
•
Can biotech crops produce more affordable
food, feed and fiber, and are they safe?
Can biotech crops contribute to
sustainability?
Can biotech crops help with climate change
mitigation and adaptation?
Can biotech crops contribute to food
security and to the alleviation of poverty and
hunger?
Source: Clive James, 2011
ADOPTION
OF
BIOTECH CROPS
1996 - 2010
Accumulated Global Area of Biotech Crops,1996/2010
Biotech Crops Surge Over 1 Billion Cumulative Hectares in 2010
M Acres
2965
1200
1 Billion Hectares = USA land area
2471
1000
1976
800
1482
600
988
400
494
200
0
0
500 Million Hectares
10 years
5 years
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: Clive James, 2011
Global Area (Million Hectares) of Biotech Crops,
2010: by Country
Biotech Mega Countries
50,000 hectares or more
Increase over 2009
10%
Source: Clive James, 2010.
USA
Brazil*
Argentina*
India*
Canada
China*
Paraguay*
Pakistan*
South Africa*
Uruguay*
Bolivia*
Australia
Philippines*
Myanmar*
Burkina Faso*
Spain
Mexico*
29 countries which have adopted
biotech crops
In 2010, global area of biotech
crops was 148 million hectares,
representing an increase of 10%
over 2009, equivalent to 14 million
hectares.
66.8
25.4
22.9
9.4
8.8
3.5
2.6
2.4
2.2
1.1
0.9
0.7
0.5
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.1
Less than 50,000 hectares
Colombia*
Chile*
Honduras*
Portugal
Czech Republic
Poland
Egypt*
Slovakia
* Developing countries
Costa Rica*
Romania
Sweden
Germany
Global Adoption Rates (%) for Principal
Biotech Crops (Million Hectares, Million Acres), 2010
Million acres
445
180
158
395
160
346
140
296
120
247
100
198
80
148
60
99
40
49
20
0
0
Conventional
Biotech
90
33
81%
Soybean
Source: Clive James, 2010
64%
Cotton
31
29%
Maize
23%
Canola
Global Area of Biotech Crops, 1996 to 2010:
By Trait (Million Hectares, Million Acres)
M Acres
250
100
222
90
Herbicide Tolerance
198
80
Insect Resistance (Bt)
173
70
Herb Tolerance/Insect resistance
148
60
124
50
99
40
74
30
49
20
25
10
0
0
1996
1997
1998
Source: Clive James, 2010
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
SUMMARY – 2010 HIGHLIGHTS
billionth hectare planted in 2010 – about same area as
USA or China
•1
• Increase from 25 to 29 countries: Pakistan, Myanmar
and Sweden, and Germany resumed planting
• Strong 10% growth = 14 M ha = 2nd largest gain ever
• 87-fold increase from 1996 to 2010 - fastest adopted
crop technology
• Top ten countries each >1 M ha, 8 are developing
• 15.4 M biotech farmers, up 1.4 M – 90% or 14.4 million
were small and resource-poor farmers
• Stacked traits – 11 countries, 32 M ha (22%)
Source: Clive James, 2011
IMPACT OF GM/BIOTECH CROPS
GLOBAL IMPACT of BIOTECH CROPS
Source: Brookes and Barfoot forthcoming, and Clive James, 2011
•
IMPROVED PRODUCTIVITY AND INCOME
– Farm income gains $65 B from 1996 to 2009
44% due to cost reduction
56% due to a production gain of 229 M tons - conservative
estimate (spill-over from biotech to conventional)
• PROTECTS BIODIVERSITY
– Double crop production on same area of 1.5 B hectares of
crop land
– Save forests/land/biodiversity – 229 M tons would have
required additional 75 M ha of land to till
– Enhanced farm ecology
GLOBAL IMPACT of BIOTECH CROPS
Source: Brookes and Barfoot forthcoming, and Clive James, 2011
• ENVIRONMENTAL
IMPACT
– Reduce need for external inputs
– Savings of 393 M kg pesticides from 1996/2009 = 9%
saved
– Saved 18 B kg CO2 in 2009 – contribution to climate
change, removing 8 M cars off the road
– Conservation of soil & water through biotech + no low till
• SOCIAL BENEFITS
– Contribution to poverty alleviation of 14.4 M small
resource-poor farmers in 2010 & welfare benefits
emerging.
Safety of Biotech/GM Crops
THE FUTURE
2011 - 2015,
THE REMANING FIVE YEARS OF THE
SECOND DECADE OF
COMMERCIALIZATION
2015, The Millennium Development Goals Year
The Future – 2011-15
Key Requirements for Success
•
•
•
POLITICAL WILL
ACCESS TO NEW & IMPROVED
BIOTECH CROPS
APPROPRIATE AND EFFICIENT
REGULATION IN DEV. COUNTRIES
Source: Clive James, 2011
The Future – 2011-2015. A WAVE OF
NEW & IMPROVED BIOTECH CROPS
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Many new crop/trait options will be ready before 2015
Drought tolerance – principal trait – maize in US 2012
Biotech rice – major crop, up to 1 billion beneficiaries
Quality traits – Golden Rice in 2013, omega-3, others
More biotech crops developed by countries from the
South in public inst. – more South-South cooperation
Biotech applications for “Speeding the breeding” –
MAS and biotech crops, to provide a faster response
to more severe and rapid changes in climate change
Asia will grow more in 2nd decade than first decade
Source: Clive James, 2011
Current Numbers and Estimations of Future
Numbers of GM Crops Worldwide
Source: Stein and Cerezo, 2010
Implementation of APPR0PRIATE REGULATION
will spur adoption of biotech crops in AFRICA
Source:Compiled by Clive James, 2011
EGYPT
EGYPT
UGANDA
BURKINA
FASO
MALI
KENYA
BURKINA
FASO
TANZANIA
MALAWI
TOGO
SOUTH
AFRICA
NIGERIA
SOUTH
AFRICA
2010 (3 countries)
2015 (up to 10 countries)
South Africa, Burkina Faso
and Egypt
South Africa, Burkina Faso,
Egypt, Mali, Togo, Nigeria,
Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania
and Malawi
Projected Biotech Crop Countries
in Asia (2010-2015)
PAKISTAN
PAKISTAN
CHINA
CHINA
VIETNAM
PHILIPPINES
PHILIPPINES
INDONESIA
INDIA
INDIA
MYANMAR
BANGLADESH
MYANMAR
AUSTRALIA
AUSTRALIA
2010
2015
India, China, Pakistan, Australia,
Philippines and Myanmar
India, China, Pakistan, Australia,
Philippines, Myanmar, Indonesia,
Vietnam and Bangladesh
ISAAA Prediction for 2nd Decade, 2006-2015
# of Biotech
Countries
# of Farmers
Planting
Biotech Crops
Global Biotech
Area
m. hectares
Source: Clive James, 2011
2006
2010
2015
22
29
~ 40
10 Million
15.4 Million ~ 20 Million
100 Million 148 Million
Hectares
Hectares
~200
Million
Hectares