1

Update of Monthly Tourism Indicators

22 April 2010

2

Overview

• With no data available yet for a large proportion of the 71 countries covered in our update, our estimate of 2.3% growth in visitor arrivals in January is mainly a reflection of our 2010 forecasts rather than actual statistical trends. • The data that is available indicates very strong growth in the Middle East and parts of Asia Pacific, with a much more muted rebound evident in Europe. This is consistent with our expectation that emerging markets will lead the recovery this year.

3

Overview

continued

• Early data releases suggest that our 2010 forecast for a 2.5% growth in arrivals in 2010 may have been too conservative. However, given the current uncertainty regarding the fallout from the Icelandic volcanic eruption, it is clearly prudent to defer judgement on such issues. • A final point worth considering is that, given the dramatic collapse in arrivals in 2009Q1, growth rates may offer a slightly misleading picture of current conditions. By way of example, it is clear that, in Japan, despite very strong growth through February, Travel & Tourism activity remains subdued compared with 2008H1.

4

Big gains in some emerging markets…

World: Overnight visitor arrival growth

% year 35 30 25 20 15 Year to January 10 5 0 -5 2009 -10 Europe Americas Middle East Africa Asia-Pacific Source: PATA, Haver, Eurostat, Oxford Economics, UNWTO World

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…as growth picks up towards forecast for 2010…

World: Short-term tourism indicators

% year, 3mth mav 10 8 6 IATA international traffic growth (RPK) 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 Annual data/forecast for visitor arrivals ` Overnight visitor arrivals† -10 -12 RPK = revenue passenger kms †based upon monthly data covering 80% of world arrivals -14 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Source: IATA, PATA, Haver, Eurostat, Oxford Economics, WTTC Jan-10

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…but growth rates can mask different realities

Selected Countries' visitor arrivals*

000s 9000 Japan (LHS) 8000 7000 Singapore (LHS) Taiwan (RHS) 000s 5000 4500 4000 6000 5000 3500 3000 4000 2500 * 12 month rolling sum 3000 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 2000 Source: PATA, Haver, Oxford Economics

7

Air passenger volumes continue to recover strongly…

International air passenger traffic growth

% year, RPK 15 12 9 6 3 3mth mav 0 -3 -6 -9 RPK = revenue passenger kms -12 Jan-05 Jan-06 Source: IATA Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10

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…driven principally by improvements in emerging markets

% yr 0 -4 -8 -12 -16 28 24 20 16 12 8 4 December January Africa Asia/Pacific Europe Source: IATA February Latin America Mid.East N.America

World

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2010 data only available for 25 countries

Overnight visitor arrival growth in 2010 Austria Belgium Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Italy Luxembourg Netherlands Portugal Spain Sweden UK Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Rep Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Malta Poland Romania Year to:

Dec-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 -8.7

Dec-09 -13.2

Dec-09 -10.2

Dec-09 -3.0

Dec-09 Dec-09 Dec-09 Dec-09 Nov-09 Mar Dec-09 Feb Dec-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Dec-09

(% year-on-year, January 2010 to the indicated month) %

-2.0

-5.0

-7.7

-8.7

1.1

-2.7

-8.7

0.1

0.1

2.6

Dec-09 -12.2

Jan -2.4

-8.5

-4.8

-9.7

Nov-09 -20.7

Nov-09 -16.9

Feb 6.9

-4.6

Dec-09 -13.7

Iceland Norway Switzerland Turkey Canada US Mexico Chile Dom Republic Israel Jordan Lebanon Egypt Mauritius South Africa Tunisia Japan China Hong Kong South Korea Macau Taiwan India Maldives Slovakia

Nov-09 -26.9

Nepal Slovenia Montenegro

Dec-09 -6.4

Feb -15.5

Pakistan Sri Lanka Croatia

Dec-09 -4.2

NB. Where there is no 2010 data yet available 2009 growth is listed instead

Year to:

Dec-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Feb Dec-09 Dec-09 Dec-09 Nov-09 Mar Mar Feb Jan Mar Dec-09 Sep-09 Feb Feb Jan Feb Dec-09 Dec-09 Feb Mar Feb Mar Sep-09 Mar

%

7.5

-8.8

-3.6

6.9

-7.8

-5.5

-5.1

0.8

3.9

37.1

27.7

26.4

29.0

-6.4

4.5

-0.1

32.0

3.5

17.5

13.4

-2.0

26.4

12.8

20.4

29.8

-9.7

50.3

Cambodia Indonesia Laos Malaysia Myanmar Papua New Guinea Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam Australia New Zealand Fiji Kiribati Tonga Vanuatu REGIONAL ESTIMATES (1) Europe Americas Middle East Africa Asia-Pacific WORLD Year to:

Jan Dec-09

%

4.6

1.4

Dec-09 Jan Feb Dec-09 Jun-09 Feb Dec-09 Feb 15.6

1.4

41.2

4.8

4.3

20.8

-3.4

27.4

Dec-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Sep-09 0.0

-0.9

-7.7

30.8

Feb -8.9

Feb -28.9

Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan 2.4

4.4

31.2

18.8

5.0

2.3

(1) based on these 71 countries only; coverage good for Europe, North America and Asia-Pacific but very limited elsewhere Source: Oxford Economics