Transcript Research and Development in the FY 2010 Federal Budget

The FY 2016 R&D
Budget: Review and
Context
Matt Hourihan
March 17, 2015
for the Science, Engineering, and Technology
Congressional Visits Day
AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Program
http://www.aaas.org/spp/rd
Trends in Federal R&D, FY 1977-2016
in billions of constant FY 2015 dollars
$200
$180
$160
Total R&D
$140
Defense
$120
$100
$80
Nondefense
ARRA Total
$60
ARRA Defense
$40
$20
ARRA Nondefense
$0
Source: AAAS analyses of historical budget and appropriations data. Pre-1994 figures are NSF obligations data from the Federal Funds survey. FY
2016 is the President's request. R&D includes conduct and facilities. © 2015 AAAS
Federal R&D in the Budget and the Economy
Outlays as share of total, 1962 - 2016
14.0%
2.5%
12.0%
2.0%
10.0%
1.5%
8.0%
6.0%
1.0%
4.0%
0.5%
2.0%
0.0%
0.0%
R&D as a Share of the Federal Budget (Left Scale)
R&D as a Share of GDP (Right Scale)
Source: Budget of the United States Government, FY 2016. FY 2016 is the President's request. © 2015 AAAS
R&D as a Share of GDP by Funder
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
Total
Federal
Industry
Source: National Science Foundation, National Patterns of R&D Resources series. © 2015 AAAS
Other
Research as a Share of GDP by Funder
1.2%
1.0%
0.8%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
Total Research
Federal Research
Industry Research
Source: National Science Foundation, National Patterns of R&D Resources series. © 2015 AAAS
Other
Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010
billions of constant 2015 dollars
$1,200
$1,150
$1,100
$1,050
$1,000
$950
$900
Actual Base Budget Authority
Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16
budget request. © AAAS 2015
Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010
billions of constant 2015 dollars
$1,200
$1,150
$1,100
$1,050
$1,000
$950
$900
Actual Base Budget Authority
BCA: Original Baseline
BCA: Sequester Baseline
Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16
budget request. © AAAS 2015
Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010
billions of constant 2015 dollars
$1,200
$1,150
$1,100
$1,050
$1,000
$950
$900
Actual Base Budget Authority
BCA: Original Baseline
BCA: Sequester Baseline
Current Law
Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16
budget request. © AAAS 2015
Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010
billions of constant 2015 dollars
$1,200
$1,150
$1,100
$1,050
$1,000
$950
$900
Actual Base Budget Authority
BCA: Original Baseline
BCA: Sequester Baseline
Current Law
President's FY 2016 Budget
Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16
budget request. © AAAS 2015
Current Estimates of R&D in the FY16 Budget
percent change from FY15, constant dollars
NOAA
NIST
Transportation
DOE Energy Programs
Agriculture
US Geological Survey
DOD Other
Veterans Affairs
National Science Foundation
DOE Science
National Institutes of Health
Environ Protection Agency
NASA
DOE Defense
DOD S&T
Homeland Security
TOTAL
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Based on AAAS analyses of OMB, OSTP and agency budget data. The above adjusts for inflation, expected at 1.6 percent. AAAS | Feb. 6, 2015
Agency Notes
 NSF: Total Budget: +5.2%
 Highest relative changes: social
sciences, engineering; other
disciplines and STEM Education
programs also boosted
 Defense S&T flat; 8.3% cut to basic
research
 Energy: Large increases, again, for
renewable and energy efficiency
technology offices, ARPA-E
 DOE Office of Science: +5.4%
 EFRCs, Hubs, advanced computing;
Fusion research down
DOE Office of Science Budgets
Budget Authority in millions of constant FY 2015 dollars
$2,000
$1,800
$1,600
$1,400
$1,200
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200
$0
Adv Sci Comp
Bio Env Res
High-Energy Phys
Basic Energy Sci
Fusion Energy
Nuclear Phys
Source: Historical DOE budget data and FY16 request.
© 2015 AAAS
Agency Notes (Cont.)
 NIH: $1 billion program increase (+3.3%)
 Priorities: Alzheimer's research,
translational science
 New priorities: Antibiotic Resistance,
Precision Medicine
 Success rate: 19.3%
 Familiar contours for NASA: gains for
technology office, Earth Science, little else
 USDA: extramural research activities,
intramural facilities
 Climate research @ USGS, NOAA prioritized
 A trim for DHS science & technology
Figure 1: NIH Budget
(Constant 2015 dollars in billions)
$45
$40
$35
$30
$25
$20
$15
$10
$5
$0
ARRA Funding
Cancer
Heart Lung Blood
Mental Health
General Med Sci
NIAID
NIDDK
All Other
Source: AAAS data and agency budget documents. Excludes Ebolarelated fundng in FY 2015. © 2015 AAAS
Looking ahead…
 Size and composition of the
discretionary budget? Can R&D stay
ahead of the curve?
 Deficits have fallen, but big-picture
fiscal challenges remain largely
unchanged
 Debt limit, entitlement growth
 Reconciliation strategy?
 3. agency notes
 R&D
 STEM
Thanks!
[email protected]
202-326-6607
http://www.aaas.org/program/rd
-budget-and-policy-program