Risk, Vulnerability, Perception, and Knowledge: A Social Science Perspective

“Map Your Hazards!” Module

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Introduction to Risk and Social Vulnerability

The 21 st Century seems culturally and politically saturated with the language of risk.

Risk: – Sense of what we should worry about, and how much – Represents worries and fears and raises questions about knowledge , democracy, and dialogue • •

List what you have seen/heard in the media lately about natural hazards and disasters.

Question: How do we discern what are

legitimate risks to us?

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YouTube Video: Risk Analysis

http://www.YouTube.com/watch?v=zORv8wwiadQ • In 2007, a high school science teacher posted this video, “The Most Terrifying Video You’ll Ever See,” which predicted dire consequences without strong measures to stop global warming. • The focus is not “what” to think about global warming, but “how” to think...

• Using clear language and charts, the video presents a cost/benefit analysis of over-reacting and failing to act, while utilizing the fundamentals of sound science.

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Documentary: “The Storm”

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/p ages/frontline/storm/view/ •

This hour-long PBS FRONTLINE investigation examines how *and* why government at every level — local, state and federal — was unprepared, uncoordinated, and overwhelmed in dealing with the Hurricane Katrina disaster that devastated the Gulf Coast in the late summer of 2005 and killed more than 900 people in New Orleans.

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Rational Risk Assessment

• Comparison of best knowledge about the rates and probabilities of hazards and selection of least dangerous alternative • Risks = calculable ‘facts’ we can measure, record, evaluate • Risks can and should be evaluated independently of political, social or cultural contexts.

• Provides simple understanding that is easily translated into public policy

Examine the following link and develop comments to compare to the social survey data:

http://www.bia.gov/cs/groups/xnifc/documents/text/idc 017618.pdf

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Social Nature of Risk

• Risk is embedded within social relations.

– Knowledge is influenced by relations of power and trust. – Power relations influence both knowledge that comes to your attention and knowledge that you seek out.

– Trust will influence what you make of that knowledge, if you see a risk.

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Question: How do social relations relate to assessing the difference between risk and hazards?

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“Natural” Disasters

• Labeling a disaster as “natural” allows it to remain in an innocent realm of “natural conscience.” • Life is indeed risky sometimes, and it has material worries and uncertainties. – How do these worries and uncertainties become disastrous realities? – Disasters not only affect individual people, but can also threaten the social fabric that links us to one another.

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Was Hurricane Katrina a “natural” disaster?

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Poor conditions of human-made levees.

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Human destruction of swamp buffers along Gulf Coast.

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Social Vulnerability

Potential for damage or loss of a societal asset.

Examples include societal conditions: – Land use (e.g. building in flood or fire zones) – Building stocks (e.g. pre-1950 housing susceptible to seismic shifts) – Demographic patterns (age, gender, minority status, poverty status) – Cultural context (Who is self-reliant? Who needs care or assistance? Who is responsible for safety?) – Political forces (democracy in action – who has power, who does not have a voice, and why?) •

Question: what social interests might get in the way of disaster mitigation for communities?

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Trust and Dialogue of Risk

• Dialogue of risk requires sense of trust.

• Knowledge is a social process. • Trust is about willingness to disagree and debate, and still retain sense of social connection.

– There must be willingness to keep the conversation going.

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Question: what is involved in a dialogue of trust for natural disaster mitigation?

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We need to understand how and why people are at risk if we hope to reduce their risks.

Wood, N., 2011. Understanding risk and resilience to natural hazards. U.S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet 2011-3008 – Venn diagram modified from http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2011/3008 10

What Shapes Risk Perception?

Knowledge

• Hazard knowledge from previous experience • Hazard knowledge from information provided by different media • Frequency of information received and its credibility • Knowledge or preparedness measures or emergency response protocol •

Spatial Dimensions

Distance or proximity to hazard-prone regions • Length of residence • Memory of past events 11

What Shapes Risk Perception?

Self-Efficacy and Sense of Community

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Socioeconomic Pressures:

Social context in which individuals are situated Trust in an institution responsible for mediating threat Public attitude for guidance of officials in a given region Religious or cultural views High population densities Access to livelihoods Dependent economies Poverty and social inequality 12

Does the public know what hazards are locally probable?

• Hypothesis: The following variables correlate with a high base of knowledge and risk perception: – longer residence times – past experience with a natural hazard – participation in drills and/or education programs •

Where do people get their knowledge? Where do they prefer to get their knowledge?

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What is the level of risk perception of the hazards potentially affecting a given community?

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Does the public know what hazards are locally probable?

• Hypothesis: An educated public has a more accurate perception of risk. –

What is the level of preparedness within a given community?

• Hypothesis: Population with high perception of risk is most prepared. •

In groups, you will be creating and testing research

questions as you analyze the social survey results.

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