Transcript House Committee on Redistricting and the House Committee

Applied Demography:
Some Texas Examples
University of Texas at Austin
Division of Statistics + Scientific
Computation
Statistics in Action Series
February 6, 2013
Austin, TX
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Demography – the study of the size,
distribution, and composition of populations;
the processes determining these – namely,
fertility, mortality, and migration; and the
determinants and consequences of all of the
above.
~ Bogue, 1968; Murdock & Ellis, 1991
The Population Research Institute,
2.1 Kids: Stable Population
http://youtu.be/zBS6f-JVvTY
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Mission
The Office of the State Demographer disseminates
demographic and related socioeconomic data to the
State of Texas and the general public. The State
Demographer’s Office monitors demographic and
socioeconomic changes in the State in order to better
inform the executive and legislative branches of Texas
government. Special emphasis is placed on data that
may be useful to policy makers in dealing with issues
regarding the demand for state services.
Meeting the Mission
• Data Portal, Publications, and Reports
http://txsdc.utsa.edu/
• Population Estimates and Projections Program
http://txsdc.utsa.edu/Data/TPEPP/Estimates/Index.aspx
• Resource Witness at Legislative Hearings
• Public Presentations
http://osd.state.tx.us
• Data Requests
• Custom Research Projects
• Annual Conference for Data Users and Applied Demography
Conference
Population Projections, 2010
Projected Population for Texas by
Race/Ethnicity, 2010 to 2050,
0.5 Migration Scenario
60
55
No Migration
50
1/2 2000 to
2010
2000 to 2010
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Millions
Millions
Projected Population in Texas, 2010 to 2050
24
21
Black
19
Hispanic
16
Other
40
14
35
11
30
Anglo
9
6
25
20
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Source: Texas State Data Center Population Estimates and Projections Program, 2010 Projections
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Meeting the Mission
• Data Portal, Publications, and Reports
http://txsdc.utsa.edu/
• Population Estimates and Projections Program
http://txsdc.utsa.edu/Data/TPEPP/Estimates/Index.aspx
• Resource Witness at Legislative Hearings
• Public Presentations
http://osd.state.tx.us
• Data Requests
• Annual Conference for Data Users and Applied Demography
Conference
• Custom Research Projects
Three Examples of Applying
Demographic Data and Methods to
Government & Business Planning
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Projecting the educational attainment
of the Texas labor force
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Background
• Texas educational attainment ranked the
lowest among the 51 states
– 51st in high school graduation
– 37th in college graduation
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2006-2010 American Community Survey PUMS data
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Background
Individuals with some higher education are more likely to
be employed; trend suggests this gap may be widening.
Percentage Employed By Educational Attainment, ACS 1-year PUMS
90.0%
85.0%
y = 0.0017x + 0.805
R² = 0.3851
80.0%
Less than High School
Percent
75.0%
70.0%
65.0%
y = -0.0025x + 0.7486
R² = 0.4418
High School Graduates or
Higher
Bachelor or Higher
60.0%
55.0%
50.0%
y = -0.0007x + 0.5703
R² = 0.0223
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2001 to 2010 American Community Survey 1-Year PUMS data
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Background
Educational attainment has improved in the last 10 years.
Educational Attainment Level for Persons Age 18 -64
ACS PUMS 5-year, 2006-2010
30%
25%
< Hi
Hi-Eq
Percent
20%
Some Col
As Degree
15%
Bach Degree
10%
Master Degree
Prof Degree
5%
Doc Degree
0%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2001 to 2010 American Community Survey 1-Year PUMS data
2010
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Background
Educational attainment improvements seen among most
subgroups, but demographic differences are still pronounced.
Educational Attainment Level for Persons Age 18 -64
ACS PUMS 5-year, 2006-2010
Educational Attainment Level for Persons Age 18 -64
ACS PUMS 5-year, 2006-2010
30%
70%
25%
60%
20%
50%
White
Black
US-born Hispanics
40%
15%
Foreign-born
Hispanics
Other
30%
10%
20%
5%
10%
0%
< Hi
Hi-Eq
Some
As
Bach Master Prof
Doc
Col Degree Degree Degree Degree Degree
Male
Female
0%
< Hi
Hi-Eq
Some
As
Bach Master Prof
Doc
Col Degree Degree Degree Degree Degree
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Background
Educational attainment improvements seen among most
subgroups, but demographic differences are still pronounced.
Educational Attainment Level for Persons Age 18 -64
ACS PUMS 5-year, 2006-2010
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
< Hi
Hi-Eq
Some Col
As Degree Bach Degree
18-24
25-34
Master
Degree
Prof Degree Doc Degree
35-64
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Data & Methods
• Data sources:
– American Community Survey PUMS data 2001 to 2010
– Texas State Data Center population projections data
– Texas Workforce Commission occupation-education
projection data
• Analysis plan
– Multinomial regression model used to predict the
rates of each educational attainment category for
each demographic sub-group, based on historical
trend and demographic characteristics
– The predicted sub-group specific rates are applied to
the population projections
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Findings
• Compare projected educational attainment of the labor
force to required labor force for projected job needs
• Identify gaps between demand (by job type) for
education and the supply (by the labor force)
• Specific educational attainment levels and population
sub-groups can then be targeted to meet these needs
– Tailored career paths in high schools, colleges, and
vocational schools
– Inform immigration goals for specific skill visas
– Evaluate funding needed to meet goals of projected
education levels needed in the labor force
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Identifying demographic, socioeconomic, geospatial,
and housing unit characteristics that are related to
household energy consumption
Data & Methods
• Identified variables related to energy consumption
• Data sources:
– Energy provider consumption data
– Census data
– County appraisal district data
Housing Characteristics
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Year built
Square footage
Type of foundation
Number of rooms
Number of stories
Presence of a pool
Presence of a fireplace
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Demographic & Socioeconomic
Characteristics
• Total population
• Total occupied housing units
– Owner occupied
– Renter occupied
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Percent Hispanic, non-Hispanic householders
Mean age of householder
Number of persons per household
Family composition
Educational attainment of householder
Households with children under 6
Households with seniors
Median household income
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Behavioral Characteristics
• Participated in rebate program
• Installed a smart thermostat
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Data & Methods
• Analysis plan
– Regression analysis to determine most relevant predictor
variables
• Addressing challenges with data
– Differing units of analysis
– Geocoding and matching data
Findings
• Identify factors most important to high/low
energy consumption
• Identify homes with relatively high energy
consumption
• Target homes that could benefit from
upgrades, receipt of rebates
• Identify hot spots in the city in need of large
scale retrofitting
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Estimating the number of unauthorized
immigrants in Texas counties
Background
• Texas is one of the fastest growing states, with
migration making up 45% of growth
• Issue of immigration, especially unauthorized or illegal
migration, critical when planning and considering:
– Concerns about border security
– Assessments of economic impact on receiving
communities
– Resulting shifts in the social characteristics of communities
• With the exception of California, sub-state level
estimates of the undocumented population are not
available.
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Background
• Conventionally, estimation of the undocumented population
produced using the residual method (Warren 2011; Passel
2010, 2011)
– Estimates of legal foreign born residents are subtracted from
estimates of foreign born
• Most commonly used national and state estimates include
Pew Hispanic Center, Dept. of Homeland Security, and R.
Warren estimates
• Residual method produces some challenges when attempting
to produce estimates at lower geographies due to data
unavailability
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Estimates of the Unauthorized
Immigrant Population in Texas
1800
1,680
1600
1,400
1400
1200
Thousands
1,527
1,474
1,100
1,127
1,360
1,400
1,090
1000
800
600
450
440
400
200
0
1990
2000
Passel
2005
Warren
2008
DHS
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Data & Methods
• New county level IRS administrative data allows
for reallocation of state estimates of the
unauthorized to the county level
• Use regression analysis to account for varying use
of ITINs by unauthorized immigrant population
• Expand upon this new estimation technique by
employing geographically weighted regression to
refine the distribution of unauthorized
immigrants across the state
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Estimates of the Unauthorized
Immigrant Population, 2008
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Estimates of the Unauthorized
Immigrant Population, 2008
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Results
• Higher unauthorized estimates were found in counties
characterized by agriculture, urbanicity, high
employment, fast Hispanic population growth, and
substantial foreign born populations
• These areas include counties in the Dallas-Fort WorthArlington, Houston-Baytown-Sugarland, and AustinRound Rock metropolitan areas, large border counties,
and counties in parts of East Texas.
• When examined as a percentage of the county
population, Panhandle counties and counties in the
Dallas and border areas have higher percentages.
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Demographics & Destiny
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Hans Rosling’s The Joy of Stats BBC Four
http://youtu.be/jbkSRLYSojo
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Contact
Office of the State Demographer
Office: (512) 463-8390 or (210) 458-6530
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: http://osd.state.tx.us
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