Transcript CEB PPT Template

™
Economic Analysis and
Decision Support Group
2 February 2010
Business Barometer
Aggregate Report
Business Executives’ 12-Month Outlook
Based on January 2010 CEB
Business Barometer survey,
the Business Executives’
Sentiment Index improved
from 43 to 49, reflecting a
more optimistic 12-month
outlook on the economy
compared to Q4 of 2009.
Most of them expect higher
revenues coupled with rising
cost pressures.
• 73% of respondents expect
revenue to be higher in the next 12
months, while only 12% of
respondents expect lower cost
pressure.
Business Executives’ Sentiment Index (BESI)*
Source: Business Barometer Survey, Corporate Executive Board
49
1st Quarter 2010
43
4th Quarter 2009
0
50
Negative Outlook
Neutral Outlook
100
Positive Outlook
Business Executives’ Expectations on Revenue Growth and Cost Pressure
Source: Business Barometer Survey, Corporate Executive Board
Much higher, 10%
Much higher, 8%
Higher, 15%
Higher, 27%
Somewhat higher, 44%
*BESI is a CEB forward looking
index incorporating senior
executives’ sentiment on revenue
growth and cost pressures in the
next 12 month.
Economic Analysis and Decision Support Group
© 2010 The Corporate Executive Board Company. All Rights Reserved.
Somewhat higher, 36%
N = 370
No change, 9%
No change, 22%
Somewhat lower, 8%
Lower, 6%
Much lower, 4%
Somewhat lower, 8%
Lower, 3%
Revenue
Cost Pressure
Much lower, 1%
2
Business Executives’ Assumptions
Business Executives’
assumptions about economic
conditions in the next 12 months
reflect a mild optimism about
growth prospects and an
uncertainty about
unemployment, consumer
confidence and costs.
Business Executives’ Assumptions on Key Economic Indicators and Drivers
Source: Business Barometer Survey, Corporate Executive Board
Lower
Energy Costs 1%
Major Non-Energy Commodities 6%
Interest Rates 3%
Access To Credit* 13%
Value of USD
Foreign Competition 4%
• Most respondents continue to expect higher
growth in emerging economies than in the
U.S./EU markets.
• The share of executives expecting higher
competition decreased from 59% in October
2009 to 50% in January 2010.
• 51% of business executives expect
consumer confidence to improve, while 49%
have inflationary expectations and 44%
believe unemployment will remain high for
the next 12 months.
Higher
55%
44%
48%
46%
53%
43%
45%
41%
44%
Consumer Confidence 14%
Government Spending 17%
Economic Growth US/Europe 14%
Economic Growth Emerging Economies 4% 24%
Inflation 2%
27%
Unemployment
• The number of respondents who expect
better access to credit grew from 39% in
Q4-2009 to 45% in Q1-2010. 41% expect
access to credit to remain difficult and 13%
believe it will grow worse . 53% of
respondents expect interest rates to
increase (compared to 44% in Q4).
No change
16%
39%
50%
46%
36%
51%
31%
52%
48%
39%
73%
49%
50%
44%
29%
* For Access to Credit, "Higher" means "Better"
N = 370
• 55% of executives expect prices of energy
commodities to increase in the next 12
months; 48% of respondents expect nonenergy commodities to increase as well.
Economic Analysis and Decision Support Group
© 2010 The Corporate Executive Board Company. All Rights Reserved.
3
CORPORATE EXECUTIVE BOARD
WWW.EXECUTIVEBOARD.COM
™
Economic Analysis and
Decision Support Group
Oleg Polishchuk
Roman Cech
Shehryar Ansari
Randeep Rathindran
Jian Chen
Senior Director
Consultant
Director
Director
Director
EADS contact information:
571.303.6257
[email protected]