Transcript Title Line One Here Line Two Here, Arial 36 pt.

Turkmenistan Gas
Congress 2011
Doug Uchikura
Chevron
© 2011 Chevron
2011: Target markets are facing market uncertainty &
potential structural changes
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© 2011 Chevron
Europe
gas demand
demand and
and production
production forecast
forecast (BCMA)
(BCMA)
Russia
gas
China
gas
demand
and
production
forecast
(BCMA)
India gas demand and production forecast (BCMA)
Contracted
Contractedimports
imports
Contracted
imports
Unconventionals
Unconventionals
Contracted imports
Unconventionals
Production
Production
Unconventionals
Demand
Production
Demand
Demand
Production
Surplus
production
Surplus
production
120 BCMA
Russia
market gap
Demand
170 BCMA
market gap
Europe
30 BCMA
market
gap
China
60 BCMA
market
20 BCMAgap
market gap
30 BCMA
market gap
India
2007
2007
2007
2015
2015
2015
2020
2020
2020
2025
2025
2025
2030
2030
2030
2035
2035
2035
Source: IEA 2010 International Energy Outlook & Chevron intelligence
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2010: Turkmenistan faces competition from other gas suppliers
but could capture potential alternative market space
Europe & Turkey
Yamburg
Shtokman
Bovanenkovskoe
Shah Deniz II
In Salah
Iran
Iraq
Karachaganak
Qatargas LNG
Rasgas LNG
Shale gas
Russia
China
Kovykta
Sakhalin II LNG
Gorgon LNG
Queensland Curtis LNG
NW Shelf LNG
Malaysia LNG
Qatargas LNG
Shale gas
Europe
China
India
© 2010 Chevron
India
Sakhalin II LNG
Gorgon LNG
Queensland Curtis LNG
NW Shelf LNG
Malaysia LNG
Qatargas LNG
Shale gas
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New wild cards could constrain market space & deal
space in the target time frame
A
Q
Shale gas
A
J
shale gas
resource
update & South
Yolotan (shown
in TCM)
18
3
Europe
© 2011 Chevron
China
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India /
South
Pakistan Yolotan
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
-
China
India
TCM
36 EIA April 2011
Spot LNG
J
TCF
Europe
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Q
Russia
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The Promise of Turkmenistan
70
100
4-14
BCM/yr
BCM/yr
TCM
Current Annual
Production
Incremental
Commitments
Reserve Base
250 BCM/yr
Production by 2030
© 2008 Chevron Corporation
© 2011 Chevron
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Large investment is required to achieve gas production
growth goals
Turkmenistan
Gas Export Scenario and Investment Requirement
BCMA
250
200
150
Production Growth Requires:
• Proven Reserves Additions
• New Pipeline Infrastructure
• New Gas Markets & Sales
• Significant Investment
New 4
New 3
New 2
New 1
100
China
50
Iran
Russia
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Intergovernmental Agreements
2020
2025
2030
2035
Commercial Agreements (ToP obligations)
Incremental Investment (Billion$)
© 2011 Chevron
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Total
Pipelines
25
10
25
20
25
105
Upstream
10
10
10
10
10
50
Total
35
20
35
30
35
155
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Benefits from foreign
investments
“ The presence of IOCs in Kazakhstan’s economy has been, above all, beneficial.
I do not think that such large projects as Karachaganak, Tengiz and Kashagan
could have been implemented without the participation of major global oil and gas
companies…Over the past ten years, [total] investment in the oil and gas sector
accounted for about $107 billion, of which 60% was in projects operated by
international corporations…These companies paid about ($13.7 billion) in taxes
into the state budget and in allocations to the National Oil Fund in 2010…”
The Honorable Sauat Mynbayev, Minister of Oil and Gas, Republic of
Kazakhstan, comments made during the Astana Economic Forum 4 May 2011
© 2011 Chevron
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